Speed Figure improvement

[Tom]

Mark Cramer did a study about horses improving their Beyer figs when they win.
It was, I believe, 8 points, but does anyone remember the criteria her used? Was it 8 points off the last race, the last good rae, last win...?

I'd like to update that a little and use both Beyer and BRIS.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

Mark Cramer did a study about horses improving their Beyer figs when they win.
It was, I believe, 8 points, but does anyone remember the criteria her used? Was it 8 points off the last race, the last good rae, last win...?

I'd like to update that a little and use both Beyer and BRIS.

Last race, 99% sure.

[sjk]

Did a quick calculation and I get just under 10. Using my numbers but they should be on the same scale as BSF.

[classhandicapper]

I was never sure how to use that information.

If the horse wins, that probably means he probably got a pretty good trip.

So how much of that is an indication that we should be looking for horses that might improve, how much is looking for horses that are likely to get a good setup, and how much is random?

It seems to me we should probably just want generally improving horses that figure to get a god setup.

[thaskalos]

To me, it's easier to spot pending deterioration than it is to foretell imminent "improvement". And, it's just as useful...IMO.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by cj

Last race, 99% sure.

OK, and I am 1% sure! So that settles it!

That's what I thought.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

To me, it's easier to spot pending deterioration than it is to foretell imminent "improvement". And, it's just as useful...IMO.

Outstanding comment, IMO. Concur 100%.

[Tom]

A big part of figure patterns is identifying both before the public does.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Outstanding comment, IMO. Concur 100%.

Yes, but HOW is this done/ observed...it’s like my track buddie who says that horse ‘looks good’ in the post parade...but when I ask WHAT ‘looks good’ ...he hems and haws...says “there’s lots of stuff but it is kind of an intuition thing”...I said to him, “I like a horse whose neck is bowed as a signal of class and professionalism, and confidence”...”no, he says, THAT is a bad sign” so go figure...

I am interested in signs of pending poor form though...like sweats, fractious, non-regular tail swishing for mares...do you know other factors that might indicate pending poor form....?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

To me, it's easier to spot pending deterioration than it is to foretell imminent "improvement".

Are you linked into my betting account?

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Yes, but HOW is this done/ observed...it’s like my track buddie who says that horse ‘looks good’ in the post parade...but when I ask WHAT ‘looks good’ ...he hems and haws...says “there’s lots of stuff but it is kind of an intuition thing”...I said to him, “I like a horse whose neck is bowed as a signal of class and professionalism, and confidence”...”no, he says, THAT is a bad sign” so go figure...

I am interested in signs of pending poor form though...like sweats, fractious, non-regular tail swishing for mares...do you know other factors that might indicate pending poor form....?

I'm not big on the physiology thing, not because I don't think it's worthy, but because I'm not a horseman of any kind. The only time my observations of a horse means anything is when the horse's condition is extreme, one way or the other. The subtleties many see in the walking ring or post parade are not things I can key on as I'm just not knowledgeable enough (I do like a bowed neck also. Not because I was told it's good, but because personal observation has convinced me it has positive significance.) But, let me look at the horse's past 3 races, and even if all 3 are 2nd place finishes, I can usually get a pretty good feel for which way the horse's form is going. The reason I agree so strongly with Thask's comment is that if I see the horse is moving forward, it's much more difficult, for me anyhow, to determine whether the horse is moving forward enough to win, in contrast to, if I see the horse is regressing, it doesn't matter how much it's regressing. It's a toss.

For me, I've proven to myself it will always be easier for me to spot losers in a race than to spot the winner. That's why I have always felt strongly in the fact that many handicapper's first step being to cull through the field and make those initial tosses as being an effective first step. Just make certain to not toss the "tweeners" to quickly before investigating a little further. In a 10 horse field, if I toss more than 3 before I really get started handicapping, I get a little worried that maybe I need to slow down.

[PhantomOnTour]

Who cares? Is this so we can compare those figs to the other three runners in the field ?
Lolol

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I'm not big on the physiology thing, not because I don't think it's worthy, but because I'm not a horseman of any kind. The only time my observations of a horse means anything is when the horse's condition is extreme, one way or the other. The subtleties many see in the walking ring or post parade are not things I can key on as I'm just not knowledgeable enough (I do like a bowed neck also. Not because I was told it's good, but because personal observation has convinced me it has positive significance.) But, let me look at the horse's past 3 races, and even if all 3 are 2nd place finishes, I can usually get a pretty good feel for which way the horse's form is going. The reason I agree so strongly with Thask's comment is that if I see the horse is moving forward, it's much more difficult, for me anyhow, to determine whether the horse is moving forward enough to win, in contrast to, if I see the horse is regressing, it doesn't matter how much it's regressing. It's a toss.

For me, I've proven to myself it will always be easier for me to spot losers in a race than to spot the winner. That's why I have always felt strongly in the fact that many handicapper's first step being to cull through the field and make those initial tosses as being an effective first step. Just make certain to not toss the "tweeners" to quickly before investigating a little further. In a 10 horse field, if I toss more than 3 before I really get started handicapping, I get a little worried that maybe I need to slow down.

Very insightful post, thank you...

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Who cares? Is this so we can compare those figs to the other three runners in the field ?
Lolol

If this was addressed to me, I don't know what you're saying.

Wouldn't be the first "whoooosh" moment of my life.

[098poi]

Here is a link to him discussing this. Good read.


https://www.covers.com/postingforum/...&sub=100992098