Riding the coattails

[46zilzal]

Over the years in evaluating the betting side of the coin over the handicapping arm of the game, I have noticed an interesting and often very profitable angle in the top four finishers. For years I just kept track of this, but not until recently ever having a reliable way to delved into these profits.

My current handicapping software is magical for predicting this as it looks at two races in each: the winner of the early phase and the winner of the late phase of the contest. Having that single verification made a wager I never would have touched several years ago, one that I now look for all the time.

You must have a race course where there is evidence that this pattern recurs with enough frequency as to regularly follow it along with meticulous records. It can be frustrating at times when either there is no bet while at others several in a row come in...Many races are, in fact a push, but you hit the long ball often...

HOW OFTEN do you see two very logical horses hit the board (1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, 2nd and 3rd) with random high odds in between making a large payout in the tri or super with TWO very logical horses anchoring the entire wager? I dubbed these two logicals as the backbone of a wager, with the random ones being brought in as "riding the coattails" of their very predictable effort.

I am of the belief that this happens profitably so often (even with shorter priced entries as the two logical ones) since not enough in the crowd go deep enough in the "illogicals" It is the marriage of LOGIC with RANDOMNESS...

On the main track, the patterns of outcome tend to occur in this frequency, the SPLITZACTA (logicals run 1st and 3rd), the Topzacta (logicals run 1st and 2nd) and the MIDZACTA (logicals run 2nd and third).....This third most common category on the turf, after the top and split, is the POLARZACTA (logicals run 1st and 4th). The open spaces in these variations are filled with the "all" button and at times, (with fields of 9 or more) this can be expensive, so before anyone tries this, they have to have both the confidence that it will hit often enough and a deep bankroll..Also one must evaluate the odds on those logicals and it they are TOO low, to just pass the contest altogether.

The wager SIZE should follow the frequency of their occurrence so most is bet on the SPLIT, less on the TOP and the least, as a saver, on the MID ZACTA.

Before I had a sustainable method of calculating the UNDERS, I would never have dreamed of wagering on vertical exotics
Go through a bunch of result charts and see how often this pattern shows up.

[SmoothJazz98]

By logical you mean the top 3 favorites? Favorites as of when?

And you keep this method at one track only,right?
You mentioned you believe it happens often enough, and you tracked this for a long time. So...how often did it happen?

[46zilzal]

working now, or has, at 5 tracks

[SmoothJazz98]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

working now, or has, at 5 tracks

Have no idea how that applies to my questions. "It's working."

Okay...that's great.

[tbwinner]

I have bet like this in the exotics for a long time.
A/B/all
A/all/B

and

A,B/A,B/all
A,B/all/A,B
trifectas

I have hit some 1,000+ dollar tris when you get an outsider in the 2nd or 3rd position. Works really well in larger fields and when your A and/or B are not favorites.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by tbwinner

I have bet like this in the exotics for a long time.
A/B/all
A/all/B

and

A,B/A,B/all
A,B/all/A,B
trifectas

I have hit some 1,000+ dollar tris when you get an outsider in the 2nd or 3rd position. Works really well in larger fields and when your A and/or B are not favorites.

I knew others had found similar

[Valuist]

I would add one twist to this that I see fairly often. The two "logical" horses in the tri, but in the 2nd and 3rd position, with a random/high variance/chaos horse winning the race.

[jk3521]

I have been tinkering with a system noting that some larger supers consist of two of the four morning line favorites along with two longshots. I would note which longshots have good early or late pace numbers, and mix the four morning line favorites in . I gave up on it since with so many smaller fields the payoffs weren't worth investing any large amounts in.

Another thing I've noticed is that so many times when a large super payout occurs, the odds-on favorite finishes fourth! In those cases you would look for a "Bridge Jumper" race. Look for one of those races with a field of at least eight.

[46zilzal]

One has to stay a venues with larger fields to make it work long term: Sunland, Oaklawn, Woodbine, Evangeline, Saratoga

[andicap]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I would add one twist to this that I see fairly often. The two "logical" horses in the tri, but in the 2nd and 3rd position, with a random/high variance/chaos horse winning the race.

Isnt that the same as what he described as the MIDZACTA in his summary??

[46zilzal]

OFTEN on the lawn when the POLARZACTA hits (logicals are 1st and 4th at the "poles" of the super) that is when the big choice of the crowd runs 4th...

Years and years as a photo finish camera at both the standardbreds and the thoroughbreds, I realized that in the last 200 feet of a race, anything happens and the logicals arrive more often, but their order is met with the randomness of the field...

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I would add one twist to this that I see fairly often. The two "logical" horses in the tri, but in the 2nd and 3rd position, with a random/high variance/chaos horse winning the race.

yes the MIDZACTA is the 3rd most common distribution on the main, behind the SPLITZACTA and the TOPZACTA..