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Old 04-11-2019, 01:32 AM   #31
Gakiss2
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KEE Friday 4th Race

Some top picks including their fitness scores. First 3 are my picks for the race, what I would put in a Pick 3/ Pick 4. The Next two are contenders I'd bet with good odds. Last two aren't awful and they have high fitness scores.

Main purpose is to show fitness score in action in a selection matrix and to see how the fitness score looks compared to other factors.

Comments, critiques welcome.
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Old 04-11-2019, 01:34 AM   #32
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Matrix with Fitness scores

And now the attachment

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File Type: png KEE 4th on Friday.PNG (26.9 KB, 28 views)
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Old 04-11-2019, 03:29 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
That sounds great.

It's tough to do, and the information isn't complete.
Not only is it incomplete, trainer styles and data can be very trainer-specific. There's a horse today in the 11th race @ Gulfstream, #5, who's training data speed has changed dramatically (significantly slower), but the horse is in fact thriving, and the major factor is actually trainer change.

Some barns publish consistent data and run a bunch of horses predictably.

The Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown coverage alos offers a window for a glimpse of how top horses are prepared for racing. (walks, gallops, gate-schooling, works, etc...)

DRF Formulator is a must have. Ability to play around with statistics such as layoffs between races.


I think it's a great idea, interested in how it moves forward and your presentation of the fitness.
Not to mention circuit styles. Acceptable workout patterns seem to me anyhow to be different at different circuits. In SoCal a work every 7 or 8 days between races is not unusual for a well meant horse. It's almost a requirement. I know that's not the same at other comparable tracks east of the Mississippi.
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Old 04-12-2019, 12:47 AM   #34
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Training Styles

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Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
Not to mention circuit styles. Acceptable workout patterns seem to me anyhow to be different at different circuits. In SoCal a work every 7 or 8 days between races is not unusual for a well meant horse. It's almost a requirement. I know that's not the same at other comparable tracks east of the Mississippi.
In the process of my attempt to build an algorithm for fitness I created a chart which graphically lays out the dates and distances of the works and races. After while you do see very different 'styles' emerge. Often I see about 4 works placed about a week apart after a long layoff. I take that as better then no or very few spaced out works after a long lay off but shouldn't rate as high as a pattern of consistent works with some recent races worked in. I do notice that some trainers will have a very steady weekly work pattern then stop two or three weeks before the race where others will keep the steady weekly pattern right up to a few days before race day. There are other trainers that almost never have the horse do a work out. And this is common in cheaper claimers so it really doesn't seem like an elaborate scheme to work the horses 'in the dark'. Some others in this thread have mentioned that east coast varies form west coast. I don't yet have enough experience to weigh in so I will take the advice as I can get it.
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Old 04-12-2019, 03:29 PM   #35
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Layoff Trainers

Re: "...maybe we should all buy past performances for the Trainers"?

Having often had a similar inclination, I developed a Trainer Profile reporting system. An example from 9/17 for the aforementioned Jason Servis is shown below. I have a few hundred of these and find them very useful as a reference point when I am not sure about a trainer's tendencies.

Hopefully it's self-explanatory. If not let me know.

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Old 04-12-2019, 04:56 PM   #36
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Lots of detail

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Originally Posted by eqitec View Post
Re: "...maybe we should all buy past performances for the Trainers"?

Having often had a similar inclination, I developed a Trainer Profile reporting system. An example from 9/17 for the aforementioned Jason Servis is shown below. I have a few hundred of these and find them very useful as a reference point when I am not sure about a trainer's tendencies.

Hopefully it's self-explanatory. If not let me know.
I could pretty well follow the information being presented. Tons of detail. Any chance you would be willing to share these trainer profiles? Or maybe you could put them in a book and sell them? I can see where a horse player might find something like this valuable.

So some other thoughts. Could trainers be put in buckets representing training 'style' then just give each a label much in the same way we put horses in a category like Presser or Front Runner. Like anything else, the devil is in the details but there could still be value in that.

We are all used to a trainers Win% and the PP providers often give us 'situational' win percentage as well. I glance at that but to it lacks context. I feel you really need to understand trainer intention.. Could there be a way to track the Trainer's win percent when he really 'intends' to win. And then the second part of that is to figure out when he / she 'intends' to win. For that I try to be mindful of 'angles'.

And from the trainer profiles you have, I do understand the concept of trainer's having a style and the varied results. But do you see any generalized conclusions from your profiles such as we have been discussing and I have been trying to capture in my algorithm? Generalized is not as powerful as trainer specific but generalized is much easier to put into to an excel formula

Thank You very much for your input
BTW Just won a P3 at Keeneland based at least in part on Fitness Score.
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Old 05-02-2019, 09:40 PM   #37
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Furlongs Per Day

Here is a summary of "Workouts Since Last Race" for the Derby including furlongs per day calcs.

The Avg. Sec./Furlong calc is based on the each horse's single fastest workout since their last races (after WO Par adjustments have been applied.)

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Old 05-08-2019, 05:39 PM   #38
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Derby Winner

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Originally Posted by eqitec View Post
Here is a summary of "Workouts Since Last Race" for the Derby including furlongs per day calcs.

The Avg. Sec./Furlong calc is based on the each horse's single fastest workout since their last races (after WO Par adjustments have been applied.)
Looks like Maximum Security should win.



Sorry, couldn't resist
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