Overthinking

[LoneF]

If Promises Fulfilled draws more than 8 post positions outside Mendelssohn it’s a wrap . Gate to wire for Mendy no reason to even run the race

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by LoneF

If Promises Fulfilled draws more than 8 post positions outside Mendelssohn it’s a wrap . Gate to wire for Mendy no reason to even run the race

Well, why not just give him the crown while we're at it?

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by LoneF

If Promises Fulfilled draws more than 8 post positions outside Mendelssohn it’s a wrap . Gate to wire for Mendy no reason to even run the race

I've seen you clown show multiple threads with your opinion that Mendelssohn will run away with this race. Will you be back to eat plates full of crow on Derby night, when he finishes out of the money?

[TiffaniO]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I've seen you clown show multiple threads with your opinion that Mendelssohn will run away with this race. Will you be back to eat plates full of crow on Derby night, when he finishes out of the money?

�� �� ��

Can’t say I’m a Justify fan but I’m hoping now that he wins in hand and Mendelsohn goes the way of all other UAE winners.

I hope he posts pictures of the Mendelsohn tickets pre-race.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

How many horses in this crop would be beat McKinzie and Justify under the uncontested lead in the Santa Anita Derby. I know its been said a lot but I just dont buy that knock on Bolt d'Oro one bit. If he ran in the Louisiana Derby, Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, or Wood. Just my opinion but if Bolt woulda won by open lengths people would cry that he was ducking Justify or McKinzie if he was healthy. If you just dont like the horse fine but the he hasnt won since September argument is crap. He ran a brutal wide trip in the BC Juvenile, ran against a stand out in McKinzie, and couldnt catch Justify on an uncontested lead most of these horses would have the same result.

I agree w/you and I like the horse and its been tough for me to rule him out, but he will be racing against fresh, late developing and highly talented swiftys; they are now what Bolt was when he was racing at two. The only knock against them is inexperience while Bolt is likely suffering from the rigors of the long two-year-old campaign and the three-year-old campaign - it takes its toll. Is he the same horse now he was last year? There was a time when types like Bolt ruled, but not now, not like they used to - not anymore. I think his type, they're fading . . .

So what do ya' do, go with the fresh swifty or the aching and tired classic type? Seems a pretty easy decision for me.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I've seen you clown show multiple threads with your opinion that Mendelssohn will run away with this race. Will you be back to eat plates full of crow on Derby night, when he finishes out of the money?

I will be back regardless of the outcome.

The best part will be the double dip I will most likely get with the Preakness . Most of the horses will be scared off after Mendelssohn romps in the KY Derby but Baffert is the type who will run Justify back after he breaks slow gets shuffled back and eased in the KY Derby. I am sure he will be thinking the 7 horse field will help Justify which it will in regards to his gate issues but at the same time it means he won’t get to take the easy way out like he will in the derby. He will have to look Mendelssohn in the eye ( for a brief moment at least ) before Mendelssohn leaves him in the dust.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

�� �� ��

Can’t say I’m a Justify fan but I’m hoping now that he wins in hand and Mendelsohn goes the way of all other UAE winners.

I hope he posts pictures of the Mendelsohn tickets pre-race.

I don’t think any of the other UAE Derby winners were also Breeders Cup Champions and 3 million dollar yearling purchases but you can keep on hoping all the way to derby day until a little thing like reality rears it’s ugly head lol

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

How many horses in this crop would be beat McKinzie and Justify under the uncontested lead in the Santa Anita Derby. I know its been said a lot but I just dont buy that knock on Bolt d'Oro one bit. If he ran in the Louisiana Derby, Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, or Wood. Just my opinion but if Bolt woulda won by open lengths people would cry that he was ducking Justify or McKinzie if he was healthy. If you just dont like the horse fine but the he hasnt won since September argument is crap. He ran a brutal wide trip in the BC Juvenile, ran against a stand out in McKinzie, and couldnt catch Justify on an uncontested lead most of these horses would have the same result.

I partly agree with you. Any mediocre horse that gets a easy uncontested lead can get brave. Just look at Promises Fulfilled in the Fountain of Youth. So why did Bolt sacrifice all chance by just conceding to Justify and not even attempting to make a race of it. Javier Castellano said Mick Ruis told him to let Justify go like that. Great strategy on his part. He will also be calling the shots in the KY Derby. Who knows what he will tell Victor to do lol ???

I would rather be putting my money behind competent trainers like Aidan O’Brien, Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown and Bill Mott.

[LoneF]

Another Quiz !!!

Don’t cheat and look at your PP’s. We will go on the honor system.

Previous quiz was a two part question. Which horse has raced against the least number of horses in his career ? Also which horse has raced the least number of times against horses in this years KY Derby ?

Justify was the answer to both

New Question

Who is the only horse in this years field to have only raced at one track their entire career ?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Im not in the Justify camp. Do I think he COULD win? Absolutely. If he does he is a true freak and the sports next super star. There is no value in betting Justify to win. Sure ill hold a tri ticket with him on top but ill have a bunch of tickets. Bolt d'Oro and Vino Rosso are my top picks that will be up and down my tickets. Luckily, I dont have to bet any tickets with Mendy on top since I got him at 60-1 offshore. Mendy and Justify both have things to overcome. Good Magic im not a fan of, at least not for the win. I like Lone Sailor, Noble Indy, Flameaway, and Bravazo to add a price underneath on my tickets.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

I agree w/you and I like the horse and its been tough for me to rule him out, but he will be racing against fresh, late developing and highly talented swiftys; they are now what Bolt was when he was racing at two. The only knock against them is inexperience while Bolt is likely suffering from the rigors of the long two-year-old campaign and the three-year-old campaign - it takes its toll. Is he the same horse now he was last year? There was a time when types like Bolt ruled, but not now, not like they used to - not anymore. I think his type, they're fading . . .

So what do ya' do, go with the fresh swifty or the aching and tired classic type? Seems a pretty easy decision for me.

There aren't many fresh swifties. I got 3 horses that can beat him. That's it. The rest are fresh dung!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by LoneF

I will be back regardless of the outcome.

The best part will be the double dip I will most likely get with the Preakness . Most of the horses will be scared off after Mendelssohn romps in the KY Derby but Baffert is the type who will run Justify back after he breaks slow gets shuffled back and eased in the KY Derby. I am sure he will be thinking the 7 horse field will help Justify which it will in regards to his gate issues but at the same time it means he won’t get to take the easy way out like he will in the derby. He will have to look Mendelssohn in the eye ( for a brief moment at least ) before Mendelssohn leaves him in the dust.

I think if Mendelssohn rates just off the lead pack and runs his race, he can outrun all these. I think trying to beat the frontrunners at their own game in the states could be his undoing. I am less worried about the bias than him trying to wire because 25 and 48 won't work. I haven't decide completely how I will play but Mendy is right up there.!

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Im not in the Justify camp. Do I think he COULD win? Absolutely. If he does he is a true freak and the sports next super star. There is no value in betting Justify to win. Sure ill hold a tri ticket with him on top but ill have a bunch of tickets. Bolt d'Oro and Vino Rosso are my top picks that will be up and down my tickets. Luckily, I dont have to bet any tickets with Mendy on top since I got him at 60-1 offshore. Mendy and Justify both have things to overcome. Good Magic im not a fan of, at least not for the win. I like Lone Sailor, Noble Indy, Flameaway, and Bravazo to add a price underneath on my tickets.

Mendelssohn at 60-1 ? Nice Job. You must of got that action really early on .

I like all your underneath horses except Noble Indy. I actually think Noble Indy is a underrated horse but the KY Derby does not seem like it’s shaping up to be a race that suits his style but I think he can win a nice stakes race down the road.

Bravazo I think could clunk up at what might be the second or third biggest price in the field. Draw a line through the LA Derby as just a case of him getting off to a funky start and never really getting in the race and eventually eased and he doesn’t look bad as a clunk up prospect at all. If you look at his pp’s he throws in these strange clunker races for no apparent reason now and than but he has not done it twice in a row yet and when he’s on he usually runs really well. I think a lot of people forget he was basically a co favorite in the LA Derby. Went off 3-1. Most people will just see he finished 21 lengths behind and quickly dismiss him. Worth a shot at least ....

Lone Sailor looks like he is shaping up to be the wise guy horse. They were pumping him up on TVG today so you won’t get the huge price like Bravazo but still should get decent odds and he is getting some steam for good reason. He could possibly be very legit. He might just end up completing not just supers but also exactas and tri’s. Must use underneath in my opinion.

Flameaway just shows up every time. Impossible to leave out underneath

You are not using Combatant ? ( The poor man’s flameaway lol )

I also disagree about Good Magic. He will be one of the few horses I use both on top and underneath. Think he is set up to run huge. Although if he draws post 1 or 2 than I will probably toss out completely. With his lack of really good gate speed he could never overcome those posts.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Im not in the Justify camp. Do I think he COULD win? Absolutely. If he does he is a true freak and the sports next super star. There is no value in betting Justify to win. Sure ill hold a tri ticket with him on top but ill have a bunch of tickets. Bolt d'Oro and Vino Rosso are my top picks that will be up and down my tickets. Luckily, I dont have to bet any tickets with Mendy on top since I got him at 60-1 offshore. Mendy and Justify both have things to overcome. Good Magic im not a fan of, at least not for the win. I like Lone Sailor, Noble Indy, Flameaway, and Bravazo to add a price underneath on my tickets.

We're definitely thinking in the same neighborhood. When I take every handicapping aspect into account with probable odds I can't separate my top 4.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I think if Mendelssohn rates just off the lead pack and runs his race, he can outrun all these. I think trying to beat the frontrunners at their own game in the states could be his undoing. I am less worried about the bias than him trying to wire because 25 and 48 won't work. I haven't decide completely how I will play but Mendy is right up there.!

I think your right that rating right off the pace than pushing the button like he did in the BC Turf and just drawing off wil probably be the way he does it vs just running them off their feet like in the UAE Derby