Who makes the morning line odds and what info do they use?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I agree, but that sounds like an argument for not having one at all...the sharpies today figure their own values and what they can live with before placing a wager...

..so if the ML is essentially of little use to them and the novices have left the game, then WHO IS LEFT to benefit from it to warrant the trouble to have one...?

Vigors...our game is deeply steeped into "tradition", and is very reluctant to change. Have you ever noticed those old-fashioned speed ratings in the DRF? Do you suppose that anyone out there is still using them? And yet...there they are. As far as our game is concerned...the tote-board needs some sort of "starting point" before the money starts pouring in. So, some guy about 150 years ago thought of a "morning line", to "kick off the betting action". And this idiocy has survived up'til now.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Fred Mertz

You or I could put together the morning line, assuming we can read a race form.


Our goal is to pick winners and ignore the little stuff such as the morning line odds.

I agree...one the one hand I wish they were blacked out (might have to do that) on the form...

...then again, I think there are tons of players who blindly use the ML in multi-race horizontal wagers...I know I do (dumb, I know)...and that is probably why we still have them...

It is almost an embedded psychological draw to compose caveman multi-race wagers utilizing lower odds horses as guideposts, thinking that since they are lower in odds that they might stand a good chance...

..it is VERY POSSIBLE that without a ML poor bettors would wager less in the multi’s, I think this is the real main reason WHY they are still in use.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

...then again, I think there are tons of players who blindly use the ML in multi-race horizontal wagers...I know I do (dumb, I know)...and that is probably why we still have them...

That's what the tip-sheets and the track handicappers are for.

[Dave Schwartz]

And yet, there are (surprisingly) few handicappers who will outperform the morning line statistically.

[TrackingTVG]

If a person doesnt do the work for all races, I've seen people rely on the ML to finish exotic wagers in p4 or p5.

A 5/2 that is 10/1 ML will almost always pay better in the exotics than a 5/2 with a 2/1 ML.

[Profesor]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

How much does the morning line maker for a track like Finger Lakes get paid? I'm guessing essentially nothing. It's just added to other duties.

In most minor circuits the hotdog vendors and sometimes the bathroom attendant second as morning line makers:

[Profesor]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Exactly where does the ML enter into the handicapping of a race?

Depends who makes the line

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

And yet, there are (surprisingly) few handicappers who will outperform the morning line statistically.

How could that be? All one would have to do is bet on every odds-on horse. The morning lines offer between 8/5 and 8/1 on such horses.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Vigors...our game is deeply steeped into "tradition", and is very reluctant to change. Have you ever noticed those old-fashioned speed ratings in the DRF? Do you suppose that anyone out there is still using them? And yet...there they are. As far as our game is concerned...the tote-board needs some sort of "starting point" before the money starts pouring in. So, some guy about 150 years ago thought of a "morning line", to "kick off the betting action". And this idiocy has survived up'til now.

The only time I look at the " old speed ratings/ variant is when they hit 100 and above 100...I think, if I remember, if it is 100 then this horse tied the best time at this distance, I think for the last 2 years prior...

If the speed rating is over 100 it means that it was faster than that, but not necessarily a new track record, just better than any in the last 2 years....it usually is a new shipper that outperforms the regulars...

I have wondered when, after a horse has bested the best time, WHEN do they reset to the new high...maybe on Jan 1st.each year..? I guess a question for ClassHandicapper to answer....watching for the occasional over 100 mark has landed me a few winners over the years....other than that I stick with the pace and beyers...

[FakeNameChanged]

First of all, I play zero horizontals, so ML's have nothing to do which horses to include in the Pic 3’s, 4’s, DD's etc. At my two main tracks, I know that occasionally they miss the mark(Lrl), but overall are reasonably accurate. So what do I do with them?

I use a combination of handicapping and/or tote for my selections. ML's if they're reasonably accurate give us an idea on who the public “may” think are the contenders pre-race. When a 20-1 or 12-1 ML horse suddenly opens at 8/5 or 5/2, it will get me to take another look. Everyone here seems to be obsessed with all the late money knocking down their picks. I know in my case, I have almost zero chance to decipher who's getting hammered late or react to it, if I could. But early money on a 20-1 ML is easy to spot. Of course, I could also spot early money without ML's, but it gives me a rough estimate on who should be getting the money. When a 20/1 ML has the expected bad lines, and there's unusual early money bet to wps, I look to see if there's any follow through in the exotic pools. Or the reverse can be the case, early money in the exotic pools, and not much bet to win early. Sometimes it’s both.

And if you think some owners, their friends or backside workers don’t bet early, think again. At my small track where I spent a couple decades on track, I’ve witnessed owners bet early, tell their friends and backside workers borrow money to bet a horse in some cases. Of course, not all insiders follow this pattern, some bet, early, middle, late, or all three times.

So the Morning LIne to me is just a quick prism to look at before the race to see if anything is literally jumping off the page, as someone else here has said. Should the ML disappear tomorrow, it would certainly not be the end of the world, and developing a quick ML using previous odds would not be that difficult if someone really wanted to do that. How anyone else uses it or not is no matter to me. À chacun ses goûts

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

How could that be? All one would have to do is bet on every odds-on horse. The morning lines offer between 8/5 and 8/1 on such horses.

And yet it is true. It is a very potent handicapping factor.

Pushes lots of winners to the top.

I recall Jim Cramer saying to me once that he wished he could find a pedigree factor that would get more winners in the top spot than Morning Line.


Of course, I am not advocating it because it correlates most highly with the tote board. But, guess what? So does BRIS Prime Power, PSR, etc.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by ZippyChippy423

The morning line favorites are most certainly used for handicapping. Just look at the pick 3 will pays in any final leg. The morning line favorite is ALWAYS the lowest paying one in the field.

That just means that the odds maker did a good job at predicting what the public would do - not necessarily that he had anything to do with making the horse the favorite. Just because a weatherman predicts rain and it rains doesn't make him a rain maker.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If the morning line-maker were offering his own opinion on what the odds should be...then the argument could be made that the ML at least expressed the honest handicapping opinion of one supposedly "knowledgeable" person. But, as it stands right now...the morning line isn't worth a damned thing, IMO. What good is having an oddsmaker try to predict the public's betting opinion...when no one can do a good-enough job of it?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Exactly where does the ML enter into the handicapping of a race?

The only possible reason why anyone would use the Ml in their handicapping is to see what the odds might be in searching for "value".
I make a point of ignoring the morning line. I do my handicapping first and then look at the real live odds to see if the bet is acceptable.

[Poindexter]

I think ml handicappers take a lot of unjustified heat. I believe in the tradition of racing the idea behind the morning line was to use it as sort of a guide as to what horses would go off at. As long as I can remember there was always a limit of how low or how high a horse would be. A horse that might even go off at 1/9 might be 2/5 on the morning line. Horses that might go off at 99-1 would often be capped at 30-1. I believe (and I could be wrong about this) that the philosophy was they did want any horse or race to appear too unattractive.

For a serious handicapper, I am not sure what difference it makes. You have your opinion, the morning line make has his, the public is going to do the right thing anyhow(most of the time). I do tend to see that in the pick 4's, pick 5's horses that are too high on their morning line to tend to pay better than they would if there morning line is correct (especially when you can get a couple in the sequence). In other words imo one day I can have a pick 4 with an 8/5 with a 3-1, with a 6-1 with a 6-1 only the 2 6-1's are 9/2 and 5-1 on the morning line, while on the the next day the exact same circumstance except that the two 6-1's are 12-1 and 15-1 on the morning line, I believe I will be paid a lot more on the 2nd pick 4 then I will on the first pick 4 even though the final odds on both are identical. I do think a lot of the public is dependent on morning lines as a guide to including horses in their multi leg exotics. So in this regard poor morning lines can work in your favor.

However, I am first to admit I have had plenty of horses I may have made 7/2 on my line who were 8-1 on the morning line that ended up at 8-1 or thereabouts. So while I am thinking the morning line capper is off, he was dead on, whether the horse wins or loses. I have also played a lot of pick 4's, pick 5's at tracks I wasn't familiar with, saw the morning line on a horse like 6/5 (I thought the ml capper was nuts) horse might go off at 2-1 or so (indicating I was right to some degree) but then the horse goes on the win by 5. Bottom line it is really easy to ridicule the morning line capper, especially when they are wrong, but often they are right too. Bottom line is compared to the final line, any morning line capper will look bad.