Maximum Security

[classhandicapper]

The Beyer finally came out. He was given a 107.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I agree with this. And handicappers often underestimate these types of horses.

I remember Andy Beyer's obituary of Affirmed. He recalled railing against him for easy trips, and he only later realized that was part of what made Affirmed so great- he was so tractable and had enough speed that Cauthen and Pincay could get him into the best position, and it wasn't an accident that his rivals kept on getting harder trips than Affirmed did.

I like to think of it in terms of quality speed vs. cheaper speed.

Affirmed was a freak.

Some horses are extremely fast and can put up some big pace and final time figures if they get loose, catch a surface they like, or are up against weaker opposition. But they lack the stamina to overcome obstacles against quality horses if they are outrun, tested, or catch a more tiring surface.

MS doesn't have the kind of extreme speed that's going to blow a field out, but he has plenty of speed AND stamina. Not only can he make his own good trip, he's not going to fold the tent if things don't go his way.

It's going to take a very good horse to beat him. IMHO, he's not so good that one of these developing 3yos or even another Baffert horse can't beat him, but imo he's better than his long time critics have suggested.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The Beyer finally came out. He was given a 107.

Interesting. Higher power also got a lowly 107 beyer in last years race also. Previous winning beyers in the Pacific Classic were 115-115-113-114 and 115.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

Interesting. Higher power also got a lowly 107 beyer in last years race also. Previous winning beyers in the Pacific Classic were 115-115-113-114 and 115.

I think the current group of CA older males is on the weak side, but I don't buy that a 107 now is comparable to a 107 years ago. That would make him a very good Grade 2 horse that would get his clock cleaned in most high level Grade 1s years ago.

It seems to me figures for top level horses slowly declined over the years and run about 6 points or so slower now than years ago. The few horses that have broken the 120 barrier (Frosted, Arrogate, American Pharoah, and Shancelot) were either great horses, totally buried a good field by a huge margin, or both.

Who's to say those races weren't really a 126 give or take.

Horses like Groovy, Gentleman, Formal Gold, Wills's Way, Sunday Silence, Ghostzapper, Skip Away and others got into the mid 120s and higher in wins that were less dominant than some of the recent top horses.

I'm sure a lot of smart people will disagree or have theories to explain it, but I don't buy that the best horses today are that inferior to before. Mentally I add points when I make comparisons to years ago.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think the current group of CA older males is on the weak side, but I don't buy that a 107 now is comparable to a 107 years ago. That would make him a very good Grade 2 horse that would get his clock cleaned in most high level Grade 1s years ago.

It seems to me figures for top level horses slowly declined over the years and run about 6 points or so slower now than years ago. The few horses that have broken the 120 barrier (Frosted, Arrogate, American Pharoah, and Shancelot) were either great horses, totally buried a good field by a huge margin, or both.

Who's to say those races weren't really a 126 give or take.

Horses like Groovy, Gentleman, Formal Gold, Wills's Way, Sunday Silence, Ghostzapper, Skip Away and others got into the mid 120s and higher in wins that were less dominant than some of the recent top horses.

I'm sure a lot of smart people will disagree or have theories to explain it, but I don't buy that the best horses today are that inferior to before. Mentally I add points when I make comparisons to years ago.

I’d say the older dirt horses in California are the weakest I’ve seen in a long time. Even accelerate, who I felt was solid but not exceptional, would clobber these horses.

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't buy that the best horses today are that inferior to before..

Provocative!

If you don't think Secretariat would utterly smoke this field or Forego would ultimately carry weight like a freight train, you need to rewind to 1973

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by VeryOldMan

Provocative!

If you don't think Secretariat would utterly smoke this field or Forego would ultimately carry weight like a freight train, you need to rewind to 1973

You have no idea, can only speculate.

I would argue horses like American Pharoh or Arrogate would have been plenty competitive back in the 70's.

And if you buy that people are cheating then its absolutely insane to think horses suddenly have gotten slower.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Horses like Groovy, Gentleman, Formal Gold, Wills's Way, Sunday Silence, Ghostzapper, Skip Away and others got into the mid 120s and higher in wins that were less dominant than some of the recent top horses.

Nearly every time the horses listed above earned a Beyer greater than or equal to 120 the horse in question won by open lengths.

The only time that threshold was reached without a dominant victory, the runners-up were in fact other horses that earned 120+ Beyers (e.g., Sunday Silence-Easy Goer 1989 BC Classic, Gentlemen-Skip Away 1997 Pimlico Special).

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I would argue horses like American Pharoh or Arrogate would have been plenty competitive back in the 70's..

They didn't get to compete like Affirmed v. Seattle Slew, Affirmed v. Spectacular Bid, etc. Secreatariat had to face his teammate Riva Ridge. We don't get to see that today, unfortunately, and I think that's the mark of a champion which Pharoah and Arrogate never faced.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by VeryOldMan

They didn't get to compete like Affirmed v. Seattle Slew, Affirmed v. Spectacular Bid, etc. Secreatariat had to face his teammate Riva Ridge. We don't get to see that today, unfortunately, and I think that's the mark of a champion which Pharoah and Arrogate never faced.

Arrogate beat California Chrome in the BC Classic, with a big gap to the third horse. That race stands up with many of the great performances of the past.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by VeryOldMan

Provocative!

If you don't think Secretariat would utterly smoke this field or Forego would ultimately carry weight like a freight train, you need to rewind to 1973

lol

I just said the current older horses in CA are a weak group. You just mentioned 2 of the greatest horses I've ever seen. So naturally they'd clobber this group.

I'm talking more about the average Grade 1 field years ago compared to today.

I'm not buying that the current horses have declined this much.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Nearly every time the horses listed above earned a Beyer greater than or equal to 120 the horse in question won by open lengths.

The only time that threshold was reached without a dominant victory, the runners-up were in fact other horses that earned 120+ Beyers (e.g., Sunday Silence-Easy Goer 1989 BC Classic, Gentlemen-Skip Away 1997 Pimlico Special).

Yeah, but those horses were putting up 125s and 126s and higher. I can't vouch for all these figures and I'm too lazy to look them all up, but the few I remember look right. There's a difference between just barely breaking into the 120s with one of those gigantic wins and some of these figures. The average winning figure for Grade 1 males has clearly declined. I calculated that myself a few years ago and it was approximately 6 points over time and then flattened out again.

https://thederbyhandicapper.com/tag/...s-of-all-time/

134 – Groovy – Belmont Park – 6 Furlongs – June 21st 1987
131 – Groovy – Belmont Park – 6 Furlongs – June 6th 1987
128 – Ghostzapper – Monmouth Park – 1 1/8th Mile – August 21st 2004
126 – Formal Gold – Saratoga – 1 1/8th Mile – August 2nd 1997
126 – Gentlemen – Pimlico – 1 3/16th Mile – May 10th 1997
126 – Will’s Way – Saratoga – 1 1/8th Mile – August 2nd 2007
125 – Formal Gold – Belmont Park – 1 1/8th Mile – September 20th 1997
125 – Skip Away – Pimlico – 1 3/16th Mile – May 10th 1997
125 – Bertrando – Belmont Park – 1 1/8th Mile – September 18th 1993
124 – Sunday Silence – Gulfstream Park – 1 1/4th Mile – November 4th 1989
124 – Easy Goer – Gulfstream Park – 1 1/4th Mile – November 4th 1989
124 – Ghostzapper – Lone Star Park – 1 1/4th Mile – October 30th 2004
124 – Formal Gold – Monmouth Park – 1 1/16th Mile – August 23rd 1997
124 – Midnight Lute – Saratoga – 7 Furlongs – Sept 1st 2007
124 – Artax – Gulfstream Park – 6 Furlongs – November 6th 1999

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Yeah, but those horses were putting up 125s and 126s and higher. I can't vouch for all these figures and I'm too lazy to look them all up, but the few I remember look right. There's a difference between just barely breaking into the 120s with one of those gigantic wins and some of these figures. The average winning figure for Grade 1 males has clearly declined. I calculated that myself a few years ago and it was approximately 6 points over time and then flattened out again.

https://thederbyhandicapper.com/tag/...s-of-all-time/

134 – Groovy – Belmont Park – 6 Furlongs – June 21st 1987
131 – Groovy – Belmont Park – 6 Furlongs – June 6th 1987
128 – Ghostzapper – Monmouth Park – 1 1/8th Mile – August 21st 2004
126 – Formal Gold – Saratoga – 1 1/8th Mile – August 2nd 1997
126 – Gentlemen – Pimlico – 1 3/16th Mile – May 10th 1997
126 – Will’s Way – Saratoga – 1 1/8th Mile – August 2nd 2007
125 – Formal Gold – Belmont Park – 1 1/8th Mile – September 20th 1997
125 – Skip Away – Pimlico – 1 3/16th Mile – May 10th 1997
125 – Bertrando – Belmont Park – 1 1/8th Mile – September 18th 1993
124 – Sunday Silence – Gulfstream Park – 1 1/4th Mile – November 4th 1989
124 – Easy Goer – Gulfstream Park – 1 1/4th Mile – November 4th 1989
124 – Ghostzapper – Lone Star Park – 1 1/4th Mile – October 30th 2004
124 – Formal Gold – Monmouth Park – 1 1/16th Mile – August 23rd 1997
124 – Midnight Lute – Saratoga – 7 Furlongs – Sept 1st 2007
124 – Artax – Gulfstream Park – 6 Furlongs – November 6th 1999

It seemed to me that the crux of your argument was that the horses of past decades had their Beyers artificially inflated or the horses of recent times have had their Beyers artificially lowered.

Your evidence was the claim that those past horses (listed above) did not dominate in the races where they registered high Beyers.

In fact, those first four races at the top alone had an average winning distance of something like 6 or 7 lengths.

[Spalding No!]

One thing to note comparing these different era horses is the overwhelming lack of consistency amongst today's horses.

Notice how many of the horses on the all-time Beyer list appear multiple times and also won races in bunches.

How do the records of the recent horses cited for comparison hold up:

Frosted? Shancelot? American Pharoah? Arrogate?

Rather than "great" or "dominant" horses, I see a list of one hit wonders (on the Beyer scale) or horses that couldn't make more than 10 lifetime starts or both.

Arrogate is the closest thing to a horse from prior decades but he clearly couldn't handle much racing even with several weeks between starts.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

It seemed to me that the crux of your argument was that the horses of past decades had their Beyers artificially inflated or the horses of recent times have had their Beyers artificially lowered.

Your evidence was the claim that those past horses (listed above) did not dominate in the races where they registered high Beyers.

In fact, those first four races at the top alone had an average winning distance of something like 6 or 7 lengths.

Interesting that all of those figures came on the east coast save Ghostzapper at Lone Star. There were obviously some very, very good west coast horses that didn't run those same figures out west.