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10-21-2016, 08:41 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 876
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I dont think any horse is a cinch to win this race.
Stellar Wind has certainly gotten the best of Beholder, but like it was mentioned earlier she might be sitting on a big one, not much has really separated the two in their last.
I think Songbird will have to improve to beat those two, then again has she ever really reached her bottom? Can cut the pace or rate, scary to think what she can do.
Chatterbox is another I will be using, she has been improving greatly.
I will certain be spreading in this race. Its the one race I am looking forward to the most the entire weekend.
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10-22-2016, 06:51 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 189
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Very much agree bro ...u have the winner ... well done
Songbird
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10-22-2016, 06:52 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 189
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rex Phinney
Yes. I love Beholder and she has been a super mare for a very long time. But the reality is they don't win forever. I have a growing voice from my gut that won't let me put anymore money on her.
The same happened with Game on Dude, I ended up getting burned the day he went all beast mode on Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge in the 2014 Big Cap. No matter, I cheered for the old bastard anyway, tearing up my tickets as he finished the field off.
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Only 2 Six Year olds have won this race ... 1990 and 1994
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10-22-2016, 06:54 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 189
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
I'll add Arrogate is a bit of a wildcard, maybe he is better too, but need to see it again.
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Horses that enter the Classic off their best beyer do very poorly .... heads up ...
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10-22-2016, 09:13 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Sportsbook at. Has Songbird at 4/5. Steller wind at 7/2 and Beholder at 5-1
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10-22-2016, 09:56 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by The Biscuit
Only 2 Six Year olds have won this race ... 1990 and 1994
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That's meaningless unless we know how many 6YOs have run in the race. I'll bet the number is small and the impact value is good.
Horses don't even fully mature until they are 6.
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10-22-2016, 09:57 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Secondbest
Sportsbook at. Has Songbird at 4/5. Steller wind at 7/2 and Beholder at 5-1
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Looks like they have the odds reversed.
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10-23-2016, 07:24 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 189
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bobphilo
That's meaningless unless we know how many 6YOs have run in the race. I'll bet the number is small and the impact value is good.
Horses don't even fully mature until they are 6.
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Appreciate your thoughts bro ... makes sense ..but numbers don't lie , regardless of how many 6 yr olds ever entered ... 2/34 is not good ... Good luck !!
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10-23-2016, 08:55 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by The Biscuit
Appreciate your thoughts bro ... makes sense ..but numbers don't lie , regardless of how many 6 yr olds ever entered ... 2/34 is not good ... Good luck !!
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True, numbers don't lie but you have to use them properly. You cannot discount how many are entered to determine success rate. Are you saying that there were 34 6YOs entered in the Distaff? What would be the impact value of fillies and mares for 3, 4 or 5YO's compared to 6YOs? I doubt that it would be significantly better.
Good luck to you as well.
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10-23-2016, 02:32 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by The Biscuit
Appreciate your thoughts bro ... makes sense ..but numbers don't lie , regardless of how many 6 yr olds ever entered ... 2/34 is not good ... Good luck !!
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Oh they sure the hell can. You can twist them and turn them and get them to say whatever you want.
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10-23-2016, 05:06 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ultracapper
Oh they sure the hell can. You can twist them and turn them and get them to say whatever you want.
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Only if one doesn't understand how to interpret them. Like trying to twist them into saying they show that 6YOs at the peak of their maturity are at a disadvantage when just the opposite is true. Too bad more of us have not studied statistics to understand their proper use.
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10-23-2016, 07:31 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Meaningless numbers formed by small samples certainly do lie.
Remember Exaggerator wasn't supposed to win the Preakness, because he finished second in the Derby. 
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10-23-2016, 08:53 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Northern, KY
Posts: 120
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Songbird by daylight. Best bet of the 2 days. She's on a whole different level.
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10-23-2016, 10:08 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
Meaningless numbers formed by small samples certainly do lie.
Remember Exaggerator wasn't supposed to win the Preakness, because he finished second in the Derby. |
That's exactly what I meant by not using them properly. For example like saying that Beholder has a disadvantage in the Distaff based on the small number 6YOs that have run there.
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10-24-2016, 10:02 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 752
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by uncbossfan
Songbird by daylight. Best bet of the 2 days. She's on a whole different level.
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The greatest two days of betting in horse racing and an even money shot is the best bet?
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