Do You See This As Positive Or Negative?

[Jeff P]

Light, In the second sample the difference in win rate and roi between the set of those wearing blinkers and those not wearing blinkers is certainly smaller.

FWIW, my interpretation here runs along the following lines:

1. The second sample is restricted to starters whose odds are under 10-1.

2. The first sample contains lots of starters whose odds are greater than 10-1.

3. Therefore, the avg odds of the starters in the second sample are lower than the avg odds of the starters in the first sample.

4. It's been my experience that the lower the odds the harder it is to "move the needle." Think of "the "needle" as a gauge being used to measure win rate and roi when a sample of starters with known characteristics is broken out by some independent variable.

I'm not at all surprised the difference between blinkers false and blinkers true turned out to be smaller in the second sample than in the first sample. Why? Because the avg odds of the starters in the second sample were lower than the avg odds of the starters in the first. (It was harder to move "the needle" in the second sample than it was in the first.)


-jp

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[cnollfan]

Interpreting Jeff P's latest stats: If a FTS is higher than 10-1 and/or higher than its ML AND is wearing blinkers, its chances are particularly poor when compared to a horse in that situation without blinkers.

[Pensacola Pete]

HTR users: open up three copies of Robot3. Test for the last 50 or 60 days. Now set the odds filter to 0.1 to 9.9 post time odds. Nothing else. Now run Learn All, Learn More, and Learn Tour. Look at the ROIs. Almost everything is clustered around 0.80. That's what you're up against.

[mnmark]

I once asked a decent trainer who had two 1st time starters in the race after he was leaving the paddock why one had binkers and one didnt. He said that the horse that was running without blinkers didnt need them Thats all he said. The horse without blinkers won his debut easily

[BlinkersOn]

I really feel like I'm getting tossed around a lot in this thread. I'm getting dizzy.

[Stillriledup]

There's also different kinds of blinkers, horses can essentially NOT be getting a blinker change when in reality, they are.