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Old 01-05-2012, 04:25 PM   #16
JohnGalt1
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Back in the early 1990's a horse named Timeless Prince was consistently winning allowances and stakes races at Canterbury.

I went to the track one Saturday where he was entered in an allowance race. Timeless just won in 1:12.0, (He usually ran his sprints 1:110 to 1:12.0) but another horse had just won a claiming race in 1:10.2.

I was confident Timeless couldn't bet a horse that much faster.

Timeless ran a 1:10.4 and beat the (faster) (cheaper) horse by 2 lengths. His class forced him to go as fast as he needed to win.
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Old 01-05-2012, 08:57 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I think it's often between call acceleration and stamina reserves.

Higher quality speed horses are quicker out of the gate and can accelerate just a little faster early (if required) to establish the position they want. Then once they settle in, they can slow the pace down with the cheaper horse behind them. If the cheaper horse tries to go with them on a sustained basis, they will accelerate again and torch him first because they also have more stamina in reserve for the battle. They may also kill themselves doing it, but the horses are often not alike even when the fractions and final times are similar.
That is how i have always felt about the subject also. rbj
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Old 01-05-2012, 11:39 PM   #18
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I have gone as far at to make my own class look-up table in Excel.

It is still far from being complete and I am constantly adjusting the numbers, but is has proven to be quite useful when looking for contenders.

I believe there are also times when you example 10K horse that is moving up was not beaten because the winner out classed him, but rather another horse entered in the race did.

This "other" horse my have finished off the board, but still in front of your 10K horse.

The same 10K horse entered again at this level, even against the horse that won last time, may very well win today because the horse that "bothered" him is not there today.

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Old 01-05-2012, 11:56 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by windoor
I have gone as far at to make my own class look-up table in Excel.

It is still far from being complete and I am constantly adjusting the numbers, but is has proven to be quite useful when looking for contenders.

I believe there are also times when you example 10K horse that is moving up was not beaten because the winner out classed him, but rather another horse entered in the race did.

This "other" horse my have finished off the board, but still in front of your 10K horse.

The same 10K horse entered again at this level, even against the horse that won last time, may very well win today because the horse that "bothered" him is not there today.

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Can you show a example? I'm not wanting secrets, just wondering.
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Old 01-06-2012, 12:13 AM   #20
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I've always believed that class is the ability to carry it's speed over the distance of ground nature intended it to.
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Old 01-06-2012, 04:59 AM   #21
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thaskalos, classhandicapper et al

I’ve defined class as combination of three attributes (speed-stamina & heart).

If I were to give an example of “class” I'd explain it this way – if Mark Messier was chasing after a loose puck and so was another opposing player who had equal or slightly faster acceleration who gets to the puck first? When the chips are down Mark gets to the puck first everytime…….. that’s my best example of “class”.

Every Canadian kid that played hockey understands that, the equivalent for an American kid might be better understood using an analogy from another sport??

Last edited by keilan; 01-06-2012 at 05:01 AM.
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Old 01-06-2012, 05:51 AM   #22
Robert Goren
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Horse racing is not about final time par se. It is about how fast a horse can run when the real running begins, when the jockey cracks his whip to signal to the horse it is time to go.
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Old 01-06-2012, 10:39 AM   #23
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Am going against the general consensus here, but I just love runners coming off of impressive wins and stepping way up in class. Of course we must do more analysis before jumping in. Taking our 10k guy in the OP, say he caught a paceless field, set soft fractions while enroute to a wire to wire win. Today in the 20k are several that want the early lead including a couple of droppers from 25k-32k. Out he goes. But lets say that our guy was on the outside of a 3 way pace duel with early splits much swifter than par for the level, puts the other speed away, and then draws out for his fast, easy win. In today's 20k are mostly stalker/pressers, with no other need to lead types. If this horse comes back quickly he is going to be a best bet type play for me. By quickly, the sooner the better, no more than 3 weeks away, within 2 weeks better still, and, if coming back in 7 days or less the rubber band comes off of the bankroll. Rare but very good. One other thing might kill this type of play for me, and that is an older horse that in it's win posted a speed figure much faster than anything showing in the recent pp's, indicating that a regression could be next. If an 8 year old gelding's Beyer was 15 or 20 points higher than anything showing, would stay away. However, if a swift, easy winner come back quickly and passes tough scrutiny, am going to be aboard, I just love these jumpers.
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Old 01-06-2012, 10:49 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by keilan
thaskalos, classhandicapper et al

I’ve defined class as combination of three attributes (speed-stamina & heart).

If I were to give an example of “class” I'd explain it this way – if Mark Messier was chasing after a loose puck and so was another opposing player who had equal or slightly faster acceleration who gets to the puck first? When the chips are down Mark gets to the puck first everytime…….. that’s my best example of “class”.

Every Canadian kid that played hockey understands that, the equivalent for an American kid might be better understood using an analogy from another sport??
I agree.."heart" has a lot to do with it.

But you can't measure heart with "numbers"...

That was the point I was trying to make...
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Old 01-06-2012, 11:15 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think that there is an element to "class" that cannot be understood by conventional means...
Agreed. It can't be measured on time alone. I refer to it as "Heart."
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Old 01-06-2012, 11:31 AM   #26
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Pressure

The reason why some horses run a huge number then move up in class and can't duplicate it is Pressure. I guess you could call it pace pressure but it's not necessarily evident in the actual fractions of the race. It's in the "bunching" of horses. For example, a common scenario, a horse drops from an allowance to a n2l claimer, let's say a $20,000 claiming race for non winners of 2 wins. The horse goes out to the lead with another horse and they pull away from the rest of the field, then the horse puts that one away, opens up and wins in 1:09.3, taking a Beyer of 95.

The next start the owners put the horse back in an allowance race, the fractions and final time are indentical, but the horse finishes off the board and runs a Beyer of 85. What was the difference? Bunching. In the NW3 allowance field, once again the horse goes out for the lead and one other pace rival goes with it. But, this time right behind them there are four other horses bunched together chasing the pace in close proximity. In other words, the field is more tightly bunched. This creates a tremendous amount of pressure.

Believe me, I ran track in high school and when I ran against the tougher teams it was much more difficult to run to my fastest personal time. This was mainly due to the fact that the better teams had several competitive (fast) runners so while I was running there were runners all around me. Against the weaker squads, I would either be running on my own, or perhaps with one other runner of similar talents. It is much, much, much tougher to run in a field of runners that are more closely bunched.

The fractions and final time don't always reflect this, which is the reason why class is tough to analyze, but that is what it is. Simply speaking, the higher class fields have more contenders, are more competitive, and therefore there is more pressure because the horses are more closely bunched.
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Old 01-06-2012, 11:45 AM   #27
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The "Royalty" or "Alpha Factor"

Let me add another factor besides "Heart" that may play a role.

Many handicappers believe the "speed is class and class is speed" mentioned in the first post on this thread. I think Andy Beyer strongly promoted that idea.

The fact is we don't know much about the social interactions between horses.
46Zil who used to post on this board used to claim that horses entered into a race do not have time to form any social heirachies. (Then he'd quote noted horse watchers Desmond Morris and others.) He believed that they just react to the bell and run like hell as far and as fast as they can.

I beg to differ on that view . Horses are very smart animals. They are able to size one another up in seconds.
I'm also postulating that select horses have a "Royalty" or "Alpha" factor that other horses instinctively recognize when they see it.
Thus at whatever point in the race, where the King or Queen of the herd wants to contend for the lead, if at all, Jacks , Knaves, and Jesters will yield to that runner. It's "as if" they won't perform to their normal high standards when Royalty is around.

Of course G1 level races might draw several of those true blue bloods and the potential for a highly contentious race may be probable.
That does not mean that these true Royal Highnesses will win with lower class company every time. When they are coming off a layoff and are entered in an Allowance race the trainer may be sending them just for a tune up.

Now scoff if you wish, or say Humbug, but I believe select animals have a Royalty or Alpha factor that sets them aside.
It can be particularly noticeable if they are the only Royal steed on the grounds at a B track or lesser oval.
I've seen races at B ovals where several entrants have ran faster pace and final times than an Alpha Female. Yet when the race went, this mare strolled to the front at a pedestrian pace and the others just fell in line and refused to challenge her.

Last edited by Greyfox; 01-06-2012 at 11:47 AM.
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Old 01-06-2012, 11:53 AM   #28
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nice post.

To be honest I don't look for this per se, but I do note whether a free-running type of horse has an effortless trip, or if that runner has a "rougher" trip.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
The reason why some horses run a huge number then move up in class and can't duplicate it is Pressure. I guess you could call it pace pressure but it's not necessarily evident in the actual fractions of the race. It's in the "bunching" of horses. For example, a common scenario, a horse drops from an allowance to a n2l claimer, let's say a $20,000 claiming race for non winners of 2 wins. The horse goes out to the lead with another horse and they pull away from the rest of the field, then the horse puts that one away, opens up and wins in 1:09.3, taking a Beyer of 95.

The next start the owners put the horse back in an allowance race, the fractions and final time are indentical, but the horse finishes off the board and runs a Beyer of 85. What was the difference? Bunching. In the NW3 allowance field, once again the horse goes out for the lead and one other pace rival goes with it. But, this time right behind them there are four other horses bunched together chasing the pace in close proximity. In other words, the field is more tightly bunched. This creates a tremendous amount of pressure.

Believe me, I ran track in high school and when I ran against the tougher teams it was much more difficult to run to my fastest personal time. This was mainly due to the fact that the better teams had several competitive (fast) runners so while I was running there were runners all around me. Against the weaker squads, I would either be running on my own, or perhaps with one other runner of similar talents. It is much, much, much tougher to run in a field of runners that are more closely bunched.

The fractions and final time don't always reflect this, which is the reason why class is tough to analyze, but that is what it is. Simply speaking, the higher class fields have more contenders, are more competitive, and therefore there is more pressure because the horses are more closely bunched.
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Old 01-06-2012, 11:57 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rayfox
What is the reason the cheaper horse couldn’t compete in the better race even though he had a much faster previous race than any of the current competitors?
Horses suprise trainers as well with a stellar performance. And at that point they'll try and run for more money, which usually brings out stronger competitors.

Usually the cheap claimer with a high speed rating gets the lead and beats the field by several lengths. Unfortunately when entered at a higher price, they have more problems getting the lead, and they have traffic problems, and are sometime force running in an unfamiliar way.

The top riders will try and control the pace with strategy. They'll sandbag and toy with the field if they've got the best horse. They might sit off the lead waiting to pass tired horses. And they play the game well by positioning the horse to hold off other horses in the lane. For example many horses won't split through the middle of horses, they've got to go around. The top jockeys have the experience and know how to suck an inexperience rider onto a dead rail or into a wedge. All of these things make speed ratings unreliable.
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Old 01-06-2012, 12:16 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox

I beg to differ on that view . Horses are very smart animals. They are able to size one another up in seconds.
My main focus of study is shippers. I believe horses do better if they are shipped with their friends and acclimatize with their friends. Horses which are shipped for the day have a much lower % of wins compared to those given time to adjust. Even the blue bloods will travel with friends, including familiar staff, barn mates, and sometimes other animals such as goats. Changes will impact their performance.

There is a social order to horses. Some horse will always want to be leaders. Other horse will always want to be followers. Come ride my horses and you'll find there is a big order to riding a trail or there will be absolute mahem. I have a mare that had several wins at SA, that will not walk behind anything. And I have a pack mule which will never lead, it's will not move unless it's following.
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