Big day at the Big A with 4 Graded Stakes races and a mandatory payout of the Empire 6.
In the premier race (and last) the Cigar is 'supposedly' a showdown of two of the best 3YOs in the country in
Maximum Security and
Spun to Run. It simply doesn't look that easy to me. First and foremost, Maximum Security will be carrying the most weight in the field, and these two front-runners find themselves next to one another in the starting gate. Could a speed duel ensue?
Whitmore: This battled tested sprint veteran stretches out to a mile today after his solid 3rd place showing in the BC Sprint. No shame in losing to Mitole's brilliant effort, and Shancelot has certainly freaked a few times this year. An important factor here in Whitmore's favor is that this is a 1 turn mile, and Whitmore is a pure 1 turn deep closer. If a speed duel does happen, Whitmore coming out of the 1 hole could be the most beneficial while also possibly travelling the shortest distance around the track. The wiley old veteran can't be overlooked, and could be very nice odds for a guy looking to go over the $3 Million career earnings mark with a win.
Bal Harbour: While he hasn't won a race this calendar year, Bal Harbour has been more than competitive. I really like his runner-up in the Woodward only losing to Preservationist's solid performance, and his 3rd in the Keeneland G2 Fayette wasn't too shabby either as Toms d'Etat came back to win the Clark last weekend with Mr. Freeze hitting the board. His stalking style could come up big with a possible first run at a couple of 3YOs in front of him. Another solid contender.
Forwarned: He has ventured into the deeper waters of Graded Stakes company a couple of times this year at Saratoga in August, and he was simply out-classed. While he has made some solid coin at Stakes races at Parx and Mahoning Valley, this is simply a different level of racing. Tough to see even in exotics.
Pat On the Back: He has won over $1 million in his career running solidly in NY Bred Stakes races and does hold a 3 for 5 lifetime record at this very distance including what is probably his career best performance just 4 back in the Commentator at Belmont. Another that wouldn't mind a speed duel to come about up front as he should be in that second tier hopefully looking for first run in the stretch. Of note Englehart hasn't had quite the start one would think he would in this Aqueduct meet, but he is always ever dangerous.
Maximum Security: The story of the race. Can he run another big one and maybe take down the 3YO Horse of the Year award? Things won't be easy in this deep and talented field, and if he is looking to go gate to wire he'll definitely have to earn it. Of note, he is carrying the high weight of 122 pounds while giving up weight to every other horse in the field including the BC Dirt Mile champ just to his right.
Spun to Run: That was a brilliant display in the BC Dirt Mile in which he beat a solid field by open daylight of nearly 3 lengths. Maybe this is the 'now' horse looking to explode? Back in July in the Haskell, he was simply no match for Maximum Security. But now? I don't think anybody would argue this is a much different horse than that day. He is on a roll, and his bullet works coming in show a horse maybe ready to fire yet another big one. Irad climbs back aboard, and all signs point towards go.
Nicodemus: He would probably like the track to show up a bit wet as he is only 1 for 5 on a dry fast strip. Talented colt that I'm sure we have yet to see his best yet. Backers should get a big price if he pops today. Definitely not without a chance.
Network Effect: One of the more interesting entries in the field. Sure, he comes out of the Chad Brown barn, sure he only carries 115 pounds, but this lightly raced 3YO is on his 2nd after a near 1 year layoff. Just last December, this was one of many Derby buzz horses after his back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Nashua and Remsen run at this very track. He came back just less than a month ago, and ran well enough to get the win. While that field is a far cry from this one, it was much needed before dipping his hoof back into these waters. He could be anything, and has a solid stalking style if he is ready. Dangerous.
Looking At Bikinis: The other Brown may well be the entry that takes a lot of the "wise guy" money. That was a brilliant freshener at Keeneland in which he simply toyed with that field; and if you can cross off or make solid excuses for his efforts at Saratoga this summer, this guy could very well be in the thick of it all. Jose gets the call, and he carries the low weight of 114 in the entire field. I'll actually be surprised if he goes off at the 15/1 ML. The other Brown entry is also very dangerous.
Tale of Silence: Made some solid bank in his 21 race career while only crossing the line first all of 3 times. He ran a solid runner-up to Maximum Security in the Bold Ruler, and was actually making up ground late at 7F. Still find him a bit over matched in this field that is much deeper. For me, his Met Mile is a bit more indicative of his chances in here as he was 50/1 in that field and finished a well beaten 8th of 9.
True Timber: Yes, he is 0 for 4 in '19 with nothing but 2 Show finishes to his ledger. Yes, he is 4 for 21 lifetime and has never won a Graded Stakes race. And yes, he finished a well-beaten 4th in the Bold Ruler and didn't have it when it mattered. However, he did run a solid runner-up last year in this very race at 31/1 odds in a race ran with a solid sub 1:35 mile. This will be his 3rd start since the trip to Meydan, and his recent works could be a sign of solid things for him in here. Maybe not on top, but I like him as a solid exotics booster in a deep and solid field.
SUMMARY: The race goes through the
and
as they are the controlling speed in the race. Does a speed duel ensue? Is one of them simply better than the other and we see a major performance today? Or do they run each other into the ground and the cavalry charge of 1 or 2 get them in the end?
