Races that make you go hmmm... Pen 5th 11/15

[Learned Hand35]

OK. I deserve it for even playing Penn National, but I can't resist rolling .50 pick 3's.

However, in my defense I had a whole 1.50 Pick Caveman running 3x1x1 Hit the first and third leg. My issue is with the second leg-Race 5.

The even money favorite should have come screaming out of the gate and put enough between him and the others by the time he hit the stretch that no one was catching him. He gets the lead without too much trouble, but right away I sense something wrong instead of being sent, the jock just has him just slightly on the lead with the hanging around the whole time. Jock doesn't touch the whip and has with a hand ride until extreme deep stretch just about the time that the has enough steam to scoot on by and pays at 7/2 bet down from 6-1 M/L. (In fairness, there was a scratch of a 3-1 M/L Ness Horse.

I am not a conspiracy theorist, but the should have never been that close. If there was something wrong with the he should have faded early.

Unfortunately, I don't pay enough attention to ownership. However, this race is still bothering the heck out of me. Different owners (at least based on name). However, some quick googling and the owners of each horse have a coupled entry at Laurel later this week. Another interesting thing is that the owners of the seem to often employ the trainer of the - Mr. Lake.

If anyone has some spare time please watch the replay of the 5th at Penn earlier tonight (11/15) and give me your take.

[MONEY]

The pace & results look legit to me.

[Jeff P]

From a pace-fit standpoint you're right. The #3 horse Awesome Son appeared to be legit.

If only it were that easy.

One aspect of the game I've worked to develop over the years is the ability to recognize "condition" based on the way a horse looks and acts during post parades and pre-race warm ups. I'm not always right. About 4 races out of 10 a horse that looks dead fit to me fails to run and finishes up the track. About those other 6 races... They don't always win - but barring some mishap they do manage to run a good race.

PEN is hardly the best video feed for seeing the horses... but based on what I saw earlier tonight, the #4 horse Proud Ruler looked the part during pre-race warm ups.

I'll make the argument this was one of those times where a fit horse didn't let lone speed get too far out in front - and went by late while racing well within himself.


-jp

.

[Market Mover]

Originally Posted by Learned Hand35

OK. I deserve it for even playing Penn National, but I can't resist rolling .50 pick 3's.

However, in my defense I had a whole 1.50 Pick Caveman running 3x1x1 Hit the first and third leg. My issue is with the second leg-Race 5.

The even money favorite should have come screaming out of the gate and put enough between him and the others by the time he hit the stretch that no one was catching him. He gets the lead without too much trouble, but right away I sense something wrong instead of being sent, the jock just has him just slightly on the lead with the hanging around the whole time. Jock doesn't touch the whip and has with a hand ride until extreme deep stretch just about the time that the has enough steam to scoot on by and pays at 7/2 bet down from 6-1 M/L. (In fairness, there was a scratch of a 3-1 M/L Ness Horse.

I am not a conspiracy theorist, but the should have never been that close. If there was something wrong with the he should have faded early.

Unfortunately, I don't pay enough attention to ownership. However, this race is still bothering the heck out of me. Different owners (at least based on name). However, some quick googling and the owners of each horse have a coupled entry at Laurel later this week. Another interesting thing is that the owners of the seem to often employ the trainer of the - Mr. Lake.

If anyone has some spare time please watch the replay of the 5th at Penn earlier tonight (11/15) and give me your take.

It was a bad ride by the jock of the chalk Awesome Son. He was dropping down in class, but was by no means Secretariat and assumed the lead easily while in hand til the far turn. Overconfident jock got him beat, and is just yet another example of how human error affects outcomes in horse racing.

[Learned Hand35]

I do appreciate everyone taking the time to take a look. I noticed the horse had been dropping and form was off compared to the . Just seemed like a really weird ride to me. The word that kept coming to mind was "half-assed."

[jerry-g]

This is my first post and I have been learning as much about how to handicap a race as is possible with books and systems bought through the years. At first blush, I picked awesome gem but then I noticed something. Here is why I chose the 4 horse.
The 3 had given it up in the stretch last 3 outs and the 4 made a move at the 2nd call last out of 7 lengths. He finished 5 lengths ahead of the pack. Now when I see a move like this I do not consider anything else. It makes no difference what class he came from, this move made him the best of the best for me.
I have seen horses go off at 100-1 doing the same thing. I am in the process of tweaking so I can get some good value horses. I recently read the book Legitimate Long Shots and it has given me new insight.

[rubicon55]

Originally Posted by jerry-g

This is my first post and I have been learning as much about how to handicap a race as is possible with books and systems bought through the years. At first blush, I picked awesome gem but then I noticed something. Here is why I chose the 4 horse.
The 3 had given it up in the stretch last 3 outs and the 4 made a move at the 2nd call last out of 7 lengths. He finished 5 lengths ahead of the pack. Now when I see a move like this I do not consider anything else. It makes no difference what class he came from, this move made him the best of the best for me.
I have seen horses go off at 100-1 doing the same thing. I am in the process of tweaking so I can get some good value horses. I recently read the book Legitimate Long Shots and it has given me new insight.

Welcome Jerry, I might suggest tempering your judgement on how a horse closed in it last race. There are many factors that may have played into that race and his competition he was up against. Not taking class into consideration is a fast way to deplete a bankroll. If the horse jumps up one class then it may be a legit contender (usually better with 3 yr olds who have not topped out or established a form or class yet) and you can usually get good to fair odds on horses rising up the class ladder like this. But as they say you cannot make a claiming horse run like an allowance horse regardless of how it out powered horses of the same claiming level in its previous race - especially with 4 yrs olds and upward, I have seen this tempting idea fail too many times - the other horses at the higher class level will clean out his locker so to speak when trying to to beat horses who seem to have mediocre running lines. There are times when a outstanding running line actually does carry over into the next race but you will need to wait for those to happen - does not happen as often as you would think. A lot of times these types will come up short when rising in class after a good previous race. By the way this is just my opinion.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by rubicon55

Welcome Jerry, I might suggest tempering your judgement on how a horse closed in it last race. There are many factors that may have played into that race and his competition he was up against. Not taking class into consideration is a fast way to deplete a bankroll. If the horse jumps up one class then it may be a legit contender (usually better with 3 yr olds who have not topped out or established a form or class yet) and you can usually get good to fair odds on horses rising up the class ladder like this. But as they say you cannot make a claiming horse run like an allowance horse regardless of how it out powered horses of the same claiming level in its previous race - especially with 4 yrs olds and upward, I have seen this tempting idea fail too many times - the other horses at the higher class level will clean out his locker so to speak when trying to to beat horses who seem to have mediocre running lines. There are times when a outstanding running line actually does carry over into the next race but you will need to wait for those to happen - does not happen as often as you would think. A lot of times these types will come up short when rising in class after a good previous race. By the way this is just my opinion.

It's my opinion too.

These "moves" within a race don't tell us much...unless they are viewed within the context of class and pace.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by Learned Hand35

The even money favorite should have come screaming out of the gate and put enough between him and the others by the time he hit the stretch that no one was catching him. .

IMO this was a poorly managed horse. As someone who primarily bets shippers, I would/ could find no reason to bet this one. It has all the warning signs and was at 1.1-1. I'd place it into the category of sucker's bet.

[jerry-g]

Originally Posted by rubicon55

Welcome Jerry, I might suggest tempering your judgement on how a horse closed in it last race. There are many factors that may have played into that race and his competition he was up against. Not taking class into consideration is a fast way to deplete a bankroll. If the horse jumps up one class then it may be a legit contender (usually better with 3 yr olds who have not topped out or established a form or class yet) and you can usually get good to fair odds on horses rising up the class ladder like this. But as they say you cannot make a claiming horse run like an allowance horse regardless of how it out powered horses of the same claiming level in its previous race - especially with 4 yrs olds and upward, I have seen this tempting idea fail too many times - the other horses at the higher class level will clean out his locker so to speak when trying to to beat horses who seem to have mediocre running lines. There are times when a outstanding running line actually does carry over into the next race but you will need to wait for those to happen - does not happen as often as you would think. A lot of times these types will come up short when rising in class after a good previous race. By the way this is just my opinion.

Thanks for helping me and I know you are right. It is just that I am looking at races differently now and have landed on some winners. Today, had I used class to separate three horses, I would have got a nice winner. All three had the same moves. I used speed to pick when I should have passed the race or chose class to make the pick. I did get Miss Tequila in race 8 at Aqueduct today and enjoyed the $27 win. Thanks for your advice and I do need to temper my thinking some.

[rubicon55]

Originally Posted by jerry-g

Thanks for helping me and I know you are right. It is just that I am looking at races differently now and have landed on some winners. Today, had I used class to separate three horses, I would have got a nice winner. All three had the same moves. I used speed to pick when I should have passed the race or chose class to make the pick. I did get Miss Tequila in race 8 at Aqueduct today and enjoyed the $27 win. Thanks for your advice and I do need to temper my thinking some.

Well talk about synchronicity, I had Miss Tequila also in that race and also for the double. How strange sometimes.

[sammy the sage]

so tell me about the winner at N.Y. rat hole today 11/16 in the 6th race...the # 3 horse...

if ANYBODY can explain in logical terms...I'd love to hear it...

[WJ47]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

so tell me about the winner at N.Y. rat hole today 11/16 in the 6th race...the # 3 horse...

if ANYBODY can explain in logical terms...I'd love to hear it...

The horse was better than it looked on paper. In 2 of her 4 races, she went off at low odds. Someone thought she was good and dropped some money on her (maybe the connections?). Her replays weren't bad. She had some trouble in her first few races. I've seen worse longshots. Or maybe she just loved the slop.