Five Star Play Of the Year in Preakness

[Mad Scientist]

I have studied the racing form for several hours for the Preakness. I have studied hours and hours of race replays and played our different race scenarios in my head and there is no way around it. This years Preakness offers the betting oppurtunity of the year in my opinion. The outcome of the race is crystal clear to me.

Bayern - SI - Pablo will be in a 3 way battle for the lead . Bayern can only run one way and that's as fast as he can for as long as he can. Rosie is a jockey who loves to ride from in front. SI owner and trainer are cocky. They think there horse is fastest thing on legs . They too will have their horse winging it. Pablo does not rate either . These 3 horses are all about the same quality so nobody is going to put anybody away early. All 3 will have to work hard for it every step
Of the way.
The second flight is the stalkers / ring weekend. Roc , arod , ria , chrome, dynamic impact. All those horses except fir chrome are basically the same horse which is grinder types of about the same ability.

Lastly comes kid Cruz who will be by himself in the back of the pack .

The 3 speed horses will all start to back up at about the same time as they hit the stretch and chrome will accelerate past them with ease and open up a huge insurmountable lead like he always does ,

The rest of the stalkers / grinders will slowly move up as the 3 speedsters back up that will create a big pack of 8 horses and than out of the clouds will come kid Cruz who sill easily blow by this group of horses in the mid stretch and take second. He won't be able to get to chrome because he will be long gone but kid Cruz will be a clear second.

I expect the finish to look a lot like the derby finish except instead if commanding curve insert kid Cruz .

I am not going to try to get cute and bet a tri or super . In the words of Dave Weaver I am going Ice Cold exacta,

1st - California Chrome 3/5

2nd - Kid Cruz 20/1

I am 99.9 % sure this will be the outcome.

[razorback5]

I'm 99.9% sure it doesn't end up that way.

[Run Nicholas Run]

you also liked the Broncos in the super bowl and the penguins versus the rangers

[JustRalph]

There's only one question to ask.

Do the front runners give back some ground in the stretch?

If so, Kid Cruz and of course Chrome have to be on your Super ticks.

[Mad Scientist]

Bayern had easy lead going 1 1/8!and folded in Arkansas derby and than again had easy lead and folded in the derby trial to a recent maiden winner.

Pablo had easy lead in bluegrass at 1 1/8 and folded.

SI had easy going of it in wood at 1 1/8 and folded.

Now these speed horses are going to have to go a longer distance and also work for it every step of the way and your going to have chrome rip out their hearts and show it to them at the top of the stretch breaking their will to race.

I think it's a safe bet they will be giving back ground in the stretch to a flying kid Cruz. They won't be giving any ground back to chrome in the stretch because he's going to be 5 lengths in front of them once they hit the top of the stretch. .

[Mad Scientist]

I am going to have to assume the broncos and rangers comment was a joke since I was not even posting here when the Super Bowl and Stanley cup was going on ....

And I am going to assume that you are not 99.9 % sure chrome is not going to win, so what your saying is you think kid Cruz has no chance to run up into the exacta ... I would live to debate that with you, but I need to know who your horse is ..,,

[UnionRags]

social inclusion going to make this race a joke. such a better horse than chrome

[TMQ]

Originally Posted by Mad Scientist

Bayern had easy lead going 1 1/8!and folded in Arkansas derby and than again had easy lead and folded in the derby trial to a recent maiden winner.

Pablo had easy lead in bluegrass at 1 1/8 and folded.

SI had easy going of it in wood at 1 1/8 and folded.

Now these speed horses are going to have to go a longer distance and also work for it every step of the way and your going to have chrome rip out their hearts and show it to them at the top of the stretch breaking their will to race.

I think it's a safe bet they will be giving back ground in the stretch to a flying kid Cruz. They won't be giving any ground back to chrome in the stretch because he's going to be 5 lengths in front of them once they hit the top of the stretch. .

Si didn't fold, he lost the race by 3 lengths. oh AND might I add it was only his 3rd race. Honestly though I shouldn't even argue with someone who is 99.9% positive about anything in horse racing.

[FlyinLate]

Originally Posted by Mad Scientist

Pablo had easy lead in bluegrass at 1 1/8 and folded.

SI had easy going of it in wood at 1 1/8 and folded.

You lost all credibility right here. You take no outside circumstances into account whatsoever.

Pablo had an easy lead, yes, but through your "hours and hours of video" you must have failed to watch the remainder of the Keeneland card that day where an even money front runner couldn't win if his life depended on it.

Social inclusion easy going? He drew the far outside, going the furthest he has gone to date, on only his third career race. Throw in the fact that WS and Sam came back to run 4-5 in the Derby, and it flatters the performance even further.

Do I think either one of these wins the race? Probably not.
Do I think your logic is flawed? Absolutely.

[Rex Phinney]

Right when we think it can't get any sillier, this post 99.9% sure comes along.

I don't think social inclusion will win but he is miles better than Bayern or Pablo.

I don't see a speed duel happening like you keep thinking, Baffert is going to try to rate Bayern and SI is fast enough to take the lead anytime he wants.

This dream you keep having that people send their horses guns blazing right out of the gate of a 9.5 furlong race is silly.

If CC fires he wins, if he doesn't Social Inclusion is Oxbow version 2.0. The rest in here are 10 lengths too slow

[FlyinLate]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

I don't think social inclusion will win but he is miles better than Bayern or Pablo.

I don't see a speed duel happening like you keep thinking, Baffert is going to try to rate Bayern and SI is fast enough to take the lead anytime he wants.

This dream you keep having that people send their horses guns blazing right out of the gate of a 9.5 furlong race is silly.

If CC fires he wins, if he doesn't Social Inclusion is Oxbow version 2.0. The rest in here are 10 lengths too slow

Rate Bayern? Seriously? This horse is an absolute headcase. We'll be lucky if he doesn't carry half the field 8 wide into the turn. Good luck with that plan. Blinkers Off - Bayern is going.

Guns blazing at 9.5 is silly? Since when? Like we haven't seen it happen countless times in the triple crown. For many horses, the front is the only way they are going to win it.

I dont think its about CC "firing". He isnt a horse who just doesnt show up. Not firing is for a horse who has shown that flakiness before and has a repeated pattern of either killing it or simply not showing up. How is Social Inclusion anything like Oxbow? The sheer fact that they both may inherit the lead in the Preakness? Certainly there are far better comparisons.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by FlyinLate

Rate Bayern? Seriously? This horse is an absolute headcase. We'll be lucky if he doesn't carry half the field 8 wide into the turn. Good luck with that plan. Blinkers Off - Bayern is going.

Guns blazing at 9.5 is silly? Since when? Like we haven't seen it happen countless times in the triple crown. For many horses, the front is the only way they are going to win it.

I dont think its about CC "firing". He isnt a horse who just doesnt show up. Not firing is for a horse who has shown that flakiness before and has a repeated pattern of either killing it or simply not showing up. How is Social Inclusion anything like Oxbow? The sheer fact that they both may inherit the lead in the Preakness? Certainly there are far better comparisons.

Baffert himself is saying they are going to try and slow Bayern down.

I think the speed will carry the day, I just don't see 3 horses running their eyeballs out for the lead like some are thinking.

There was supposed to be tons of speed in the Derby and look what happened.

I just see SI on the lead by himself relax man geez

[Mad Scientist]

OK it's all clear now ... All the chrome haters have found their hero that's going to take down CC and it's social inclusion.

Let's analyze SI. Which should be easy since he's raced all of 3 times.

Race 1 - he broke his maiden against a bunch of nobody's . Ok I am impressed.

Race 2 - this is the race that all off the SI lovers dream about every night , so let's take a on depth look at the famous honor code race.

The race was a field of five. Three of the horses were 4000 claimers that they shipped in from penn national to fill the field and honor code who was coming off a long layoff and only using the race as a tightner and was actually put on the sidelines after the race with a injury.

CC gets criticized for racing on the Tarmac at SA. Well the surface at gulfstream they day of the honor code race put the Tarmac at SA to shame. You had claimers going 1:07 and change and 6 track records were set that day.

So SI was able to get a easy lead against 3 bags and a rusty injured honor code that was not even trying and SI was able to go wire to wire , again I am impressed.

Race 3 - The wood. Wicked Strong went by him like he was a statue. But hey he only lost to Samarat by a nose ... Well uncle sigh only lost to Samarat by a nose twice, so I guess if uncle sigh was in the Preakness he would be 1/9.

So based of a maiden win and a win against 3 nags and a injured rusty horse and a nose loss to samarat , SI is now 10 lengths better than any horse in the Preakness lol.

I think some of you watched to much TVG the days following the honor code race where they dubbed him the next secretariat.

And I did not even get into the bruised foot and missed race last week or the highly questionable blowout work by his trainer .

I cant wait to hear all the excuses when this horse throws it into reverse by mid stretch and gives it up like Kim kardashian at a NBA after hours party.

I am sure slot of you anti chrome people are normally good handicappers but you have let all this chrome hate make you dillusional

Yeah there is just no way kid Cruz can roll right by SI, just no way it can happen lol ...

[Skanoochies]

And you believe Baffert?

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by Mad Scientist

I have studied the racing form for several hours for the Preakness. I have studied hours and hours of race replays and played our different race scenarios in my head and there is no way around it. This years Preakness offers the betting oppurtunity of the year in my opinion. The outcome of the race is crystal clear to me.

Bayern - SI - Pablo will be in a 3 way battle for the lead . Bayern can only run one way and that's as fast as he can for as long as he can. Rosie is a jockey who loves to ride from in front. SI owner and trainer are cocky. They think there horse is fastest thing on legs . They too will have their horse winging it. Pablo does not rate either . These 3 horses are all about the same quality so nobody is going to put anybody away early. All 3 will have to work hard for it every step
Of the way.
The second flight is the stalkers / ring weekend. Roc , arod , ria , chrome, dynamic impact. All those horses except fir chrome are basically the same horse which is grinder types of about the same ability.

Lastly comes kid Cruz who will be by himself in the back of the pack .

The 3 speed horses will all start to back up at about the same time as they hit the stretch and chrome will accelerate past them with ease and open up a huge insurmountable lead like he always does ,

The rest of the stalkers / grinders will slowly move up as the 3 speedsters back up that will create a big pack of 8 horses and than out of the clouds will come kid Cruz who sill easily blow by this group of horses in the mid stretch and take second. He won't be able to get to chrome because he will be long gone but kid Cruz will be a clear second.

I expect the finish to look a lot like the derby finish except instead if commanding curve insert kid Cruz .

I am not going to try to get cute and bet a tri or super . In the words of Dave Weaver I am going Ice Cold exacta,

1st - California Chrome 3/5

2nd - Kid Cruz 20/1

I am 99.9 % sure this will be the outcome.

Congratulations on picking half the exacta. Problem is they require you to pick the whole thing before they pay you.