Quote:
Originally Posted by 1st time lasix
Wondering if you pick six/pick five/pick four players ever go in to a played sequence and then later buy additional tickets . Say you structure a pick five in the “Crist ABC ranked contender” manner…. In early leg …a longer shot c rated “back up” comes in….now limiing your back ups going forward in the sequence. Do you buy them in the pick three or double pool to potentially hedge the tickets that are still alive?
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The answer for me is yes sometimes. If I get home a 5-1 c to begin I know I am done and there is no point. Best case scenario at that point is sequence goes perfect after that and I secure a small profit. Most of the time my ticket will just go up in flames. If I start off with a 25 to 1 c, now I am live for big money, but my life is limited so depending on what is ahead I might play pick 4 or pick 5 tickets that give me a lot better chance of hitting something rather than having another story. For instance in the latest give away at Gulfstream which payed around $8700. My cover all ticket hit but it was out of my budget. So I required either the two favorites to win leg 2 or the favorite to win the last leg. Of course a fletcher firster won and my top two horses came 2nd and 3rd in leg 2. So at this point I wasn’t too pleased because I wasn’t thrilled with the last race horses chance of winning. So at this point I am looking to play a cover pick 4. Unfortunately a cover pick 4 is $160. That was steep for me. As I am looking at the daily double probables and they are hammering the favorite in leg 4. So I decide to single him (didn’t like him per se otherwise I would have been live to him instead of the horse in the last race). But I also know the public is a heck of a lot sharper than I am at picking winners. So i single him for $40, he wins at like 3/5 and I got back over $1000 on the late pick 4 even though I blew the pick 6.
Another example was about 10 years ago. Was also Gulfstream. The way I play abc is a top choice, 3 b choices (2nd to 4th choices) and any other horse that can get there as a c. Back then I was betting more than I currently do. I had made my pick 6 play and in leg 1 I get home a 10-1 b choice. So I am excited because I am sitting good, but it hit me I did not have the all b ticket covered. The all b ticket to start with would have been a single by all b’s or $48.60. Back then I would not have hesitated to pull the trigger. I just did not think about it until after leg 1. So instead I played a 50 cent pick 5 for $40.50 after leg 1and you can figure out the rest. Single gets home, 4 more b’s get home and I collect around $5000 for the pick 5 instead of $50,000.
Obviously many of these plays lose too, but just providing a couple of examples that worked out for me. I generally do not remember these events so I know there are plenty of other instances that that have worked out for me. I just don’t document them. I am good with what I do.
Because we are bankroll limited (most of us), we are often going to just miss. So when we are in good position early it makes sense to cover a little deeper(especially if our life is limited with a c choice) than we are just in case, imo. If we are in bad position early, to me it is game over. If I like the pick 4 or pick 5 I might play it, but that is not a hedge. Obviously getting home a $5000 pick 5 instead of a $50,000 pick six or a $1000 pick 4 instead of a $8700 pick six is not thrilling, but it helps. It provides chips and it is less devastating
than losing money and saying to yourself “I should have had it. “
