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02-28-2019, 06:26 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Beyer Speed Figure Math -- Can someone check this?
I was reading some old threads about making speed ratings and also looking at some books by Beyer and am trying to understand how to determine the value of a Beyer Speed Point for various fractions of a second. I think the math below is correct. Would someone mind checking it?
Assume 60 seconds is the par time (standard time) for 1000 meters (5 furlongs)
1000 meters / 60 seconds = 16.67 meters per second
1 second / 16.67 mps = .06 seconds to run 1 meter
.06 seconds = 1 beyer speed point at 1000 meters
Length of a horse is 2.4 meters (about 8 feet)
.06 seconds per meter * 2.4 meters = .144 seconds to run 2.4 meters (1 length)
There are 2.4 beyer speed points per length which is the same as 1 beyer speed point per 1 meter at 1000 meters.
Question:
If .144 seconds = the time it takes to run 2.4 meters (1 length) then how many meters (bsp) = .10 seconds?
Answer:
If .144 seconds = 2.4 meters
And .10 seconds = 1 bsp
.144 =2.4
.10 = x, where x = bsp
So, by cross multiplying you get:
.144x=0.24
x = .24/.144
x = 1.67 bsp per 1/10 of a second
1.67*2 = 3.34 bsp per 1/5 second at 1000 meters (approximately 5 furlongs)
3.3 is the value Beyer uses per 1/5 seconds at 5 furlongs in his book “My $50,000 Year at the Races”.
Another way is:
(1 / (ParTimeAnyDist / 0.01)) * 1000 = bsp per 1/100 second
Then multiply by 10 for bsp per 1/10 seconds
Or multiply by 20 for bsp per 1/5 seconds
Last edited by highnote; 02-28-2019 at 06:28 AM.
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02-28-2019, 02:31 PM
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#2
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 113,052
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2.4 does not equal a length at all distances. It varies, and it has changed from his book. And he uses 5 lengths per second for his speed chart.
Here is what I calculated from PPs last Oct-Dec for each surface for value of a BL. Some blanks, I have not finished the whole thing, just the main distances I see in my handicapping.
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02-28-2019, 03:10 PM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Tom, were all of the length-to-Beyer-point-conversion factors changed vs the book (I have Beyer on Speed), or was it concentrated in sprints or routes? If you don't have the numbers handy, I'm sure I can find my book somewhere.
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02-28-2019, 03:26 PM
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#4
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 113,052
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Everything changed slightly.
Turf and Poly were not given, so they are new.
I try to find cases where a horse was beaten exactly 10 lengths, so the decimal value is easily obtained. ( or 20 lengths works too)
I'll try to finish off the blanks in the next few weeks.
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02-28-2019, 03:50 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2009
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I've never made any figures on the turf. Why is a length worth more points on the turf? I assume it's because how the typical pace sets up in a dirt race vs. turf race?
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02-28-2019, 04:41 PM
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#6
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
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Do not trust Beyers too much! Beyer’s main assumption that “the importance of beaten lengths decreases as the distance of the race increases” is rejected by the related data.
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02-28-2019, 04:51 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
I've never made any figures on the turf. Why is a length worth more points on the turf? I assume it's because how the typical pace sets up in a dirt race vs. turf race?
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It's because turf races are usually run faster at the end than at the beginning. A 3 length win on the turf is generally far more convincing than one on the dirt.
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02-28-2019, 05:15 PM
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#8
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
It's because turf races are usually run faster at the end than at the beginning. A 3 length win on the turf is generally far more convincing than one on the dirt.
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I know that's certainly true in turf routes - is it true in turf sprints, too? Thanks.
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02-28-2019, 05:15 PM
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#9
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,849
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
I know that's certainly true in turf routes - is it true in turf sprints, too? Thanks.
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No, and I don't believe Beyer uses a different adjustment for sprints.
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02-28-2019, 05:19 PM
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#10
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
No, and I don't believe Beyer uses a different adjustment for sprints.
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Tom's work shows a differential for turf sprints, too, that's why I was curious.
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02-28-2019, 05:25 PM
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#11
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,849
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
Tom's work shows a differential for turf sprints, too, that's why I was curious.
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I guess it could have changed again, don't really track it any more. The original change was that all turf routes used the 6.5f beaten lengths adjustment.
I personally use a different value for dirt and turf at all distances, but the differences is smaller as the distances get shorter.
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02-28-2019, 10:37 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
2.4 does not equal a length at all distances. It varies, and it has changed from his book. And he uses 5 lengths per second for his speed chart.
Here is what I calculated from PPs last Oct-Dec for each surface for value of a BL. Some blanks, I have not finished the whole thing, just the main distances I see in my handicapping.
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My understanding is that a length doesn't change as the distance changes, but the time to travel one length changes at different distances.
I use hundredths of a second to make my figures because it is all computerized. I use 1/5 of a second here for demonstration purposes.
Plugging my 1600 meter par of 95.92 into this formula results in a different value for 1/5 second compared to the value of a 1/5 of a second at 1000 meters:
(1 / (ParTimeAnyDist / 0.01)) * 1000 = bsp per 1/100 second
(1 / (95.92 / 0.01)) * 1000 = 0.104
Multiply 0.104 by 20 to convert to 1/5 seconds.
0.104 * 20 = 2.09 beyer speed points per 1/5 seconds at 1600 meters.
versus 3.34 beyer speed points per 1/5 seconds at 1000 meters.
This is almost identical to the value of 1/5 of a second that Beyer got for 5 furlongs and 1 mile.
1/5 of a second at 5 furlongs = 3.3 Beyer Speed Points.
1/5 of a second at 8 furlongs = 2 Beyer Speed Points.
Last edited by highnote; 02-28-2019 at 10:39 PM.
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02-28-2019, 11:28 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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I've never used the Beyer figures. They are numbers available to the entire universe of horseplayers for the price of a Daily Racing Form, or if you have the time and energy you can do your own calculation. I've always ascribed to the idea that there are four important numbers in a sprint race. The half time, the final time, the interior time (the time from the half mile pole to the quarter mile pole) and the stretch time. Figures essentially translate one into another number for ease and comparability. So a figure of 100 at Oaklawn is comparable to a figure of 100 at Gulfstream.
Take these two running times from two consecutive races at the same distance and class level.
:22 :45 1:10.1
:22.2 :45.4 1:09.4
Which horse is better? It may just be that the horse with the 1:10.1 finish time but a faster pace is just as good as the horse with the 1:09.4 finish time with a slower pace. Obviously there are other things to look at, but the point I'm making is that just looking at finish time leaves may cause you to miss a better bet.
I also have automatic eliminations.
- horses with less than a 10% win percentage
- trainer less than 5%
- trainer/jockey win % less than 10%
One final thought. I want horses cycling to the top of their form cycle. You can get some nice prices with horses that are ready to run a big one. There's a lot more to it for me, but I hope this is useful to some people.
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02-28-2019, 11:37 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,133
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Highnote you seem to have some real interest in understanding the physics behind the measurement of a horse’s running capabilities.
I generally won’t get involved in discussions like this for a number of reasons. Some of which I posted a few months ago on this thread which might offer some things to consider:
“A Critique of Speed: Fallacies in Creating Accurate Speed Figures”
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=148582
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02-28-2019, 11:42 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Thanks! I'll have a look.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Highnote you seem to have some real interest in understanding the physics behind the measurement of a horse’s running capabilities.
I generally won’t get involved in discussions like this for a number of reasons. Some of which I posted a few months ago on this thread which might offer some things to consider:
“A Critique of Speed: Fallacies in Creating Accurate Speed Figures”
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=148582
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