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09-23-2018, 07:08 PM
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#136
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyb
#3 Lewis Bay, looks like the lead horse. Gets Irad, good pace and speed ratings.
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She looked good on paper, though it looked like she might be declining. Couldn't be sure so I didn't bet the race.
Turns out she went badly off form and finished last by about 10 lengths.
Looks like Asmussen did great job with the winner (Union Strike) since she came into his barn. I remember the filly beat American Cleopatra (American Pharoah's sister) in AC's next start after AC's promising debut win. US then flopped in the BC Juve Fillies and has had an up and down career until coming into Amussen's barn. Should be interesting to see how she does in future.
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09-23-2018, 07:34 PM
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#137
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximillion
I think a lot of things have different effects both depending on the individual horse and who is actually in the race..I dont think you can always say X or Y= better performance.
We have made huge advancements in research etc...but the players in this game cant read or understand these studies.
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True, given so many variables involved in a horses performance and how they can differ from horse to horse and race to race, one cannot always make definitive statements regarding a horses' performance, let alone predicting if it will be repeated in another race against other horses. All we can do is go with the probabilities and the preponderance of the evidence.
Also agree that while we have made advances in research, few players are able to understand these studies and are unwilling to do so if they contradict their long held traditional beliefs. Even those with years of experience are likely to interpret both the research and their experience so as to reinforce their beliefs.
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09-23-2018, 07:39 PM
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#138
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I agreed with Andy's post race assessment, not his pre-race. He said she was probably fourth best (or something like that) in the race based on some of the rides and trips. Fourth best might be a small stretch, but if the same horses met again in six weeks would I favor her over the others? Almost assuredly no.
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And neither would I had I read the figures correctly.
On the plus side, a simple mistake is responsible for starting a very interesting thread.
An example of the Butterfly Effect. A simple mistake by a weather researchers' forgetting to turn off his computer led to the discovery of Chaos Theory itself.
Last edited by bobphilo; 09-23-2018 at 07:51 PM.
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09-23-2018, 07:43 PM
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#139
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
And neither would I had I read the figures correctly.
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So, this whole thread was an erroneous dialog about...…...What?
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09-23-2018, 07:58 PM
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#140
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
So, this whole thread was an erroneous dialog about...…...What?
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Nothing erroneous about the ensuing dialog, unless you call the discovery of a new and powerful way to evaluate the effects of pace erroneous - not to mention a far reaching discussion of pace.
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09-23-2018, 08:18 PM
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#141
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
Nothing erroneous about the ensuing dialog, unless you call the discovery of a new and powerful way to evaluate the effects of pace erroneous - not to mention a far reaching discussion of pace.
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When CJ runs a query to see what percentage of races have the following patterns and how many are won by frontrunners, then the thread will become a worthwhile dialog.....Maybe others learned something from your observations and work, at least I hope they did.
Basically even, like 82, 81, 80
Descending, 95, 85, 80
Ascending, 70, 75, 80
The "Valley", 80, 70, 80
The "Peak", 80, 90, 80
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09-23-2018, 08:34 PM
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#142
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
When CJ runs a query to see what percentage of races have the following patterns and how many are won by frontrunners, then the thread will become a worthwhile dialog.....Maybe others learned something from your observations and work, at least I hope they did.
Basically even, like 82, 81, 80
Descending, 95, 85, 80
Ascending, 70, 75, 80
The "Valley", 80, 70, 80
The "Peak", 80, 90, 80
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Such a dialog is an excellent way to spur such a study. I consider that worthwhile. Does anyone here really consider this thread to have not been worthwhile?
I also hope that you and others learned something from the observations here - mine and others. Whether they agreed with me or not, I do hope that this got people thinking and asking questions.
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09-23-2018, 08:44 PM
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#143
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
Such a dialog is an excellent way to spur such a study. I consider that worthwhile. Does anyone here really consider this thread to have not been worthwhile?
I also hope that you and others learned something from the observations here - mine and others. Whether they agreed with me or not, I do hope that this got people thinking and asking questions.
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More importantly, what did YOU learn from hosting this thread?
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09-23-2018, 08:58 PM
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#144
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Basically even, like 82, 81, 80
Descending, 95, 85, 80
Ascending, 70, 75, 80
The "Valley", 80, 70, 80
The "Peak", 80, 90, 80
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With those familiar with the technical methods of stock market analysis, I just noticed that the naming process of pace patterns to be similar to the Japanese Candlestick method of market analysis where a pattern is defined by the shape that the data suggests.
I vaguely remember one shape resembling and called the Tombstone indicating some kind of negative outcome. I found that one amusing - In a dark humor sort of way.
Last edited by cj; 09-23-2018 at 09:07 PM.
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09-23-2018, 09:09 PM
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#145
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
More importantly, what did YOU learn from hosting this thread?
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My answer would be pretty evident. Basically, I was interested and glad to see that other people, including cj, had observed the same phenomena and thought cj's method of naming the different patterns useful. Now we just need the study to see if it fits the observation and theory.
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09-23-2018, 09:11 PM
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#146
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
When CJ runs a query to see what percentage of races have the following patterns and how many are won by frontrunners....
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Tomorrow, I won't forget.
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09-23-2018, 11:11 PM
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#147
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
On the other hand, seems like it was run like a typical high early speed dirt race.
Horses who were 1-2-3 at the half finished 3-7-6
Horses who finished 1-2-3 were 6-5-1 at the half
Fast early pace favored the closers with the high late figures.
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45.2 on that track was a fast pace? We have differing opinions on fast pace.
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09-23-2018, 11:19 PM
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#148
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
45.2 on that track was a fast pace? We have differing opinions on fast pace.
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1/4 130
1/2 125
Fin 117
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09-23-2018, 11:22 PM
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#149
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
1/4 130
1/2 125
Fin 117
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125-117
seems very fair. Slowish for a sprint but fair enough for all.
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09-23-2018, 11:32 PM
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#150
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
125-117
seems very fair. Slowish for a sprint but fair enough for all.
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This was an interesting race from a Pace Projector perspective. I'm pushing we change these races to "Slow Pace" or even better "No Pace" designations. I'm not sure putting horses on the lead or near the front that don't really want to be there is an advantage at all. I personally tend to favor off the pace types in these kinds of races.
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