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Old 03-15-2018, 02:43 PM   #136
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
At the Tropicana it was 120-105. I know this because I had a fairly long conversation with a sports book employee about it.
And what did the Tropicana sportsbook employee say?
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:45 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
You can get a bet down on a Sunday game that you feel real strong about on Thursday and forget about it. You can be sure the line may move, but if it's one of those games that you're totally set on, the 2 or 3 points it could move either way probably isn't going to deter you. You gotta keep your eye on any news coming out of practice, and maybe the weather forecast, but there are many football games you can get down in advance and let it go. If you have a horse you really like Sunday afternoon, I would strongly suggest putting the time aside starting an hour or so before post, and keep your eye on a little bit of everything until the race goes off.
Someone who bets a game on Thursday and forgets about it is highly unlikely to be a winning player.
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:49 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
And what did the Tropicana sportbook employee say?
Essentially, that Las Vegas sports books are in the midst of huge changes in their business model, that those changes are reflective of the fact that certain types of bets attract a ton of "dumb money", and that the traditional 11-10 sports bet is going to become as rare as the 3 to 2 blackjack table with respect to the biggest football games.

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Old 03-15-2018, 02:58 PM   #139
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Old 03-15-2018, 05:13 PM   #140
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Here's some math on what is going on with sports betting and takeout, in case anyone is interested in it.

The traditional model of a sports book is as follows. You set a point spread at a point where you get about half the action on each side. If you do that consistently, the book never loses. It is basically just like pari-mutuel betting-- the winnings get paid out of the total amount bet, and the sports book keeps a takeout of about 4 1/2 percent, calculated as follows:

Losing bets X number at 110-100 = 110X.
Winning bets X number paid out at 100-100 = 100X
Takeout = (1/11) / 2 = approximately 4 1/2 percent

The books are doing three things now to increase that takeout:
1. Setting lines with money spreads other than 110-110.
2. Setting lines with unbalanced money spreads.
3. Using computer simulations to increase takeout on bets that attract "dumb" money.

Let's go through these in turn.

Thask starts out by talking about 120-100 lines. A 120-100 line sounds like the same as a 110-110 line. But it isn't. It has a higher takeout.

The takeout on a 120-100 line is the average of the take on the 120 side and the take on the 100 side. The 120 side's takeout is 20/120, or .167. The 100 side's takeout is 0. So if equivalent amounts are bet on both sides, the sports book is getting over 8 percent of the total money back in takeout rather than 4 1/2 percent. The book has almost doubled its profit margin while making it look like it did nothing other than adjusted the odds.

Now, if the book can set the odds at 120-105, as the Trop did, they are printing money. Because now it is getting 16 percent of the money bet on the 120 side, plus 4.5 percent of the money bet on the 105 side. A takeout of more than 10 percent!

It's the exact same logic that gets you to 6 to 5 blackjack. Casual players don't care, they just want to bet the game. So you can attract plenty of money with higher takeouts.

But all that assumes the sports book is taking equal action on both sides. But what if the sports book isn't doing that. What if the sports book could find a way to get the "dumber" money to overbet? Well, it turns out there's a way you can do that. With a computer, you can set up models for setting spreads so that more money is bet on the side with the higher takeout. In other words, you can set the point spread so that the 120 side will look like a more attractive bet, and the bettors, taking 4 points instead of 3, will bet more money at 120-100 than is bet at 100-100. If the sports book can set the line where it gets 55 percent of the money at 120 and only 45 percent at 100, it can achieve a 9 percent takeout rather than an 8 percent takeout.

This is exactly what they are doing. And as a result, they are taking a lot more money out of the hands of football bettors than they used to. And while this is happening, an experienced gambler like thask isn't even aware that it is happening. Nor are most bettors, I would imagine.
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Old 03-15-2018, 06:52 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Here's some math on what is going on with sports betting and takeout, in case anyone is interested in it.

The traditional model of a sports book is as follows. You set a point spread at a point where you get about half the action on each side. If you do that consistently, the book never loses. It is basically just like pari-mutuel betting-- the winnings get paid out of the total amount bet, and the sports book keeps a takeout of about 4 1/2 percent, calculated as follows:

Losing bets X number at 110-100 = 110X.
Winning bets X number paid out at 100-100 = 100X
Takeout = (1/11) / 2 = approximately 4 1/2 percent

The books are doing three things now to increase that takeout:
1. Setting lines with money spreads other than 110-110.
2. Setting lines with unbalanced money spreads.
3. Using computer simulations to increase takeout on bets that attract "dumb" money.

Let's go through these in turn.

Thask starts out by talking about 120-100 lines. A 120-100 line sounds like the same as a 110-110 line. But it isn't. It has a higher takeout.

The takeout on a 120-100 line is the average of the take on the 120 side and the take on the 100 side. The 120 side's takeout is 20/120, or .167. The 100 side's takeout is 0. So if equivalent amounts are bet on both sides, the sports book is getting over 8 percent of the total money back in takeout rather than 4 1/2 percent. The book has almost doubled its profit margin while making it look like it did nothing other than adjusted the odds.

Now, if the book can set the odds at 120-105, as the Trop did, they are printing money. Because now it is getting 16 percent of the money bet on the 120 side, plus 4.5 percent of the money bet on the 105 side. A takeout of more than 10 percent!

It's the exact same logic that gets you to 6 to 5 blackjack. Casual players don't care, they just want to bet the game. So you can attract plenty of money with higher takeouts.

But all that assumes the sports book is taking equal action on both sides. But what if the sports book isn't doing that. What if the sports book could find a way to get the "dumber" money to overbet? Well, it turns out there's a way you can do that. With a computer, you can set up models for setting spreads so that more money is bet on the side with the higher takeout. In other words, you can set the point spread so that the 120 side will look like a more attractive bet, and the bettors, taking 4 points instead of 3, will bet more money at 120-100 than is bet at 100-100. If the sports book can set the line where it gets 55 percent of the money at 120 and only 45 percent at 100, it can achieve a 9 percent takeout rather than an 8 percent takeout.

This is exactly what they are doing. And as a result, they are taking a lot more money out of the hands of football bettors than they used to. And while this is happening, an experienced gambler like thask isn't even aware that it is happening. Nor are most bettors, I would imagine.
Why should I care that the sportsbook may have figured out a way to get the "dumber" money to overbet? Does that affect ME in any way? How could the sportsbook's "computer models" persuade ME to take the side that they want me to take...can you tell me THAT?
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Old 03-18-2018, 07:52 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Essentially, that Las Vegas sports books are in the midst of huge changes in their business model, that those changes are reflective of the fact that certain types of bets attract a ton of "dumb money", and that the traditional 11-10 sports bet is going to become as rare as the 3 to 2 blackjack table with respect to the biggest football games.
If true, then won't all the sportsbooks have to do this in tandem, to avoid being priced out? It wasn't that long ago a serious sports bettor would rely on a team of runners to place bets around town to get the best prices on games. If a book offers -120 and -105 on a game, I'd certainly be looking elsewhere to place my bet.

This thread is a reminder of how much trouble the gambling industry is in, which IMHO is a reflection of the economy. 30 years ago, over 40,000 foals were born each year - now it's estimated to be less than 20,000 and a 53 year low for 2018.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...r-low-in-2018/

The decline of horse racing shows no signs of slowing down. Other than occasional temporary pop in handle, the numbers continue to slide, and it's no surprise to see it happen in other forms of gambling and sports as well.

A 15% takeout on a pick 5 is not going to save the industry.

As the boomers retire and retire and start counting their pennies, their gambling handle is not going to be replaced by millenials living in their parent's basement. Sports and online gambling may provide some relief for the early adopting states, assuming the Supreme Court allows expansion, but the long-term trend is still down. I would be shocked if the sports operators repeated the mistakes of the casinos, and piggy-backed again via the racetracks.

In North America, the intermediation (fingers in the pie) has been worse than many venues overseas, and I don't see any signs of states, the Feds, the horsemen or the track owners in providing the players (or owners) any breaks. The death spiral is well underway, and the parasites are killing the host. Speculating about a 5% takeout is a nice distraction, but will not happen any time soon. 30 years from now will the crop be 10,000 and takeout averaging 30%?

There's an irony about the HBPA "funding" a study about the effects of horse racing - it's another finger in the pie. The money spent ultimately came from the players and owners, and I for one am highly skeptical that the ROI on it will be positive.
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Old 03-18-2018, 10:21 PM   #143
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ok

First, there has never been a sports line set at -120/-105.

Second, no one (bookmaker) ever gets 50/50 action on sides. One of the proofs of this is that they change the above money lines precisely because they don't. All that said, they don't mind not getting 50/50, because in aggregate they are taking what they believe to long term winning "risks" with the margin of error being their 10% vig, which any bettor will tell you is not a nominal thing in terms of success.

Not only is the vig higher, but the fact that you can't lock prices and know what your ROI is (if you make models or handicap however), or know your expected return or beat people to numbers, all mean that horse racing can't sniff sports. Horses loses in all of those aspects. The lone exception is horizontal wagers; the only problem there being that you have pretty much no idea what others are doing. You do have some idea of what other bettors are doing in moving pool prices in horses or lines in games.

Most, if not all of what I say above, agrees with Thaskalos' sentiments.
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Old 03-18-2018, 11:15 PM   #144
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Sports betting is a better deal than horse racing, and if horse players start betting on sports, handle will go way down. Sports bets tie up funds for hours, which will kill churn.

From my experience, you go to the track once or twice a year you will get killed. You can go to Las Vegas every year and bet sports, and if you understand money management and managing risk you can stay alive. There are far more factors to consider in horse racing, and beating a 5% take is a lot easier than 20% or so.

Think of it this way, you go to Las Vegas for a weekend, bet 10k on horses, you will lose on average 2k or so. Same amount of action on sports, you would lose 500. Sports betting is also more attractive to the young.

Don't see sports betting helping horse racing in any way shape or form.
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Old 03-18-2018, 11:28 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Here's some math on what is going on with sports betting and takeout, in case anyone is interested in it.

Let's go through these in turn.

Thask starts out by talking about 120-100 lines. A 120-100 line sounds like the same as a 110-110 line. But it isn't. It has a higher takeout.

The takeout on a 120-100 line is the average of the take on the 120 side and the take on the 100 side. The 120 side's takeout is 20/120, or .167. The 100 side's takeout is 0. So if equivalent amounts are bet on both sides, the sports book is getting over 8 percent of the total money back in takeout rather than 4 1/2 percent. The book has almost doubled its profit margin while making it look like it did nothing other than adjusted the odds...........
You would have a good argument if your math was correct. On a 120-100 line with equal action on both sides and where in the long run each side wins 50% of the time there is absolutely no difference in how much the book would win.
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Old 03-19-2018, 01:18 AM   #146
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You would have a good argument if your math was correct. On a 120-100 line with equal action on both sides and where in the long run each side wins 50% of the time there is absolutely no difference in how much the book would win.
My math is correct. The percentage takeout is higher. 120-100 is not the same as 110-110, any more than 440-420 is the same as 110-110.
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Old 03-19-2018, 01:22 AM   #147
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More generally, i think there's a gigantic amount of delusional thinking associated with sports betting. Yes, takeouts are still lower than horse racing. But you guys really have no idea all the changes that are going on to increase sports books' margins, and also have no idea the variance, amount of information necessary(daily fantasy sports are an indicator of this), and difficulty of long term profit.

Sports betting is a huge money pit for a lot of otherwise sensible players.
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Old 03-19-2018, 01:38 AM   #148
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More generally, i think there's a gigantic amount of delusional thinking associated with sports betting. Yes, takeouts are still lower than horse racing. But you guys really have no idea all the changes that are going on to increase sports books' margins, and also have no idea the variance, amount of information necessary(daily fantasy sports are an indicator of this), and difficulty of long term profit.

Sports betting is a huge money pit for a lot of otherwise sensible players.
Gee...and I thought you were just the resident "poker expert" here. But here you are taking us to school on sports betting too. What's next...HORSE RACING?
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Old 03-19-2018, 10:45 AM   #149
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My math is correct. The percentage takeout is higher. 120-100 is not the same as 110-110, any more than 440-420 is the same as 110-110.
OK we will keep this simple. Team A plays Team B twice. In both games the line is -120 A and -100 B. The first game is won by A and the second game is won by B. There are only 2 bettors making a bet on each game and they are both trying to win $100 each game. Bettor 1 bets $120 on team A and bettor 2 bets $100 on team B. So the book takes in $220 on each game and a total of $440 for the 2 games. When A wins the first game the book pays bettor 1 a total of $220 and when B wins the second game the book pays bettor 2 a total of $200. So the book after 2 games has taken in $440 in bets and paid out $420 to the winners resulting in a net win of $20.

If the games were at -110 A and -110 B the book would be taking in $220 of bets on each game and paying out $210 each game. For the 2 games the book would take in $440 of bets and payout $420 to the winners, again netting $20.
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Old 03-19-2018, 01:37 PM   #150
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My math is correct. The percentage takeout is higher. 120-100 is not the same as 110-110, any more than 440-420 is the same as 110-110.
In traditional sports betting(110/100 on each side) 220 is collected(110 on each side) $10 is profit, $210 is paid out. So as stated takeout is 10/220 or about 4.55%

Using the 120/100 model 220 is risked on one side 200 is risked on the other side. So assuming a 50/50 proposition(over the long run the -120 side would win about 51% of the time the -100 side would win about 49% of the time but for the sake of ease we will go with 50/50) and once again 220 is risked $10 is profit(assuming equal amounts were bet on each team 1/2 the time the -120 side wins in which the profit is $20, half the time the -100 side wins in which the profit is $0, so on average the profit remains $10 the amount bet is still $220 and the takeout still remains about 4.55%.

I am hardly a bookmaker and honestly don't follow sports betting that much anymore. I bet the NBA for recreation and that is about it. But it is my opinion the reason that bookmakers move a game to -115 or -120 rather than than going straight from -4 to -4.5 is to lessen their exposure to middles. If they screw up a opening line open the Pats at -4 and let the public ride it up to -6, if the Pats win by 4 or 5 or 6, often get screwed on the outcome(those who bet the Pats at -4 win or push those who bet the other team at +6 either win or push. At least by raising the lines to -115 and -120 they are getting those Pats players to lay extra juice on these games and this practice probably eliminates a lot of players from attempting to middle (middles are hard enough to hit at -110, but if you are having to lay -115 or -120 your chances of making money long run go down dramatically). In other words I think this is more a way of balancing books by reducing exposure rather than any attempt at suckering players into the wrong side (if they knew the right side they can print money just like a sharp bettor can). Also, most sports bettors have been paying -110 for their entire life, to suddenly subject them to -115 or -120 is bad pr.

The one thing that I assume might go on with sports betting is profiling of players. Assuming that sports betting is eventually going to be available on line, I am sure these computer analytics will be tracking every play you make will probably know the players tendencies better than the player does and will likely charge them excessive juice on the plays they are more likely going to make. So if the computer has me tracked as say a value player, it may offer me -115 on the value side and -105 on the other side, if it has me pegged as a sharp, it will offer me -115 on the sharp side and -105 on the other side if it has me pegged as a local/favorite team player (tend to bet my hometown teams or certain teams) they will once again probably try to take advantage of this. How well this will go in the the internet/social media era I do not know. Something tells me if a player is consistently paying -115 on his favorite team the book will lose that player to another book that doesn't profile.

ps. Andy C addressed the takeout issue in prior post.

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