Belmont Stakes: Probables and Possibles

[Blenheim]

Who Joins War of Will in the Belmont Stakes? Field Shapes Up

[Fightingirish51195]

The Pletcher horse promo code must have gotten hurt: not working out. Shame.

Global campaign is one to watch

[Wabash]

Master Fencer was gaining best of anyone in the Derby during the stretch run. He may not win but the way he closed in the Derby I think he is a must use underneath at probably a big price.

No Maximum Security in the Belmont?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Wabash

Master Fencer was gaining best of anyone in the Derby during the stretch run. He may not win but the way he closed in the Derby I think he is a must use underneath at probably a big price.

No Maximum Security in the Belmont?

The problem is a lot of people feel that way so he may not be a real big price. Most stone closers get overbet when they stretch out, especially in the Belmont. The extra distance often takes the sting out of their late kick or the slower pace helps the front runners last longer. Closers like him, may have a chance to finish underneath though and Japanese horses seem to like long distances.

It's easy to finish fast in a race when practically jogging early.

Max Sec is more likely being pointed to Haskel. He's at Monmouth now.

[cj]

Tacitus is going to win the Belmont.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Tapit progeny for all spots in the exotics for The Belmont.

If the Derby was considered a slow pace, then Master Fencer may be a play.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Tapit progeny for all spots in the exotics for The Belmont.

If the Derby was considered a slow pace, then Master Fencer may be a play.

Number of Tapit progeny who have run in Belmont way too small a sample to be statistically significant. Tapit progeny who have run at 12 furlongs would be slightly better but still too small.

Derby pace was fast early, very slow middle, fast late.
So take your pick.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Number of Tapit progeny who have run in Belmont way too small a sample to be statistically significant. Tapit progeny who have run at 12 furlongs would be slightly better but still too small.

Derby pace was fast early, very slow middle, fast late.
So take your pick.

Even if it were deemed to be statistically significant. It’d be extremely difficult to control for confounds

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Even if it were deemed to be statistically significant. It’d be extremely difficult to control for confounds

Yep, pesky things like pace, trips, etc. That's why you need good size samples when there are lots of confounding variables to level them out. That's why these race specific analyses are way overrated.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Number of Tapit progeny who have run in Belmont way too small a sample to be statistically significant. Tapit progeny who have run at 12 furlongs would be slightly better but still too small.

Derby pace was fast early, very slow middle, fast late.
So take your pick.

Yes, I agree, it is too small a sample, but it is a trend - just like undefeated/undefeated at 3 for the Derby.

So the meat of the race was slow and then fast late. Thanks.
I would go with Master Fencer.

[grvaden1]

How about Everfast and/or Laughing Fox in the Belmont. Of the two, I would give Everfast the edge.

On another point, has anyone compared the FPS ratings for the Preakness and the Derby?

Gerry

[Robert Fischer]

Unfortunately, Tacitus may have been one of the handful of best horses prior-to/entered into, the Derby, and then may have actually turned in one of the handful of best performances evident from post-race analysis.

So, even if you think the Tapit stuff is anywhere from undecided, to plain old 'silly', you have the misfortune of landing on a horse who is too good to capitalize on possible contrarian thinking.

There's no real reason to hate War of Will at this point either.

It's a bit early to say much about the Belmont Stakes, but these two figure to take significant money and figure to be legitimate contenders.

I couldn't bring myself to handicap that sorry Peter Pan field ('sorry' in terms of the extremely disappointing limited betting options, not necessarily quality), but usually one decent horse from there, and perhaps an outsider, figure to contend somewhat as well.

At least at this far off point, I'm not enthusiastic about potential value in the Belmont. Always a fan of the race in general, and usually a good betting card.

[chiguy]

I believe Japanese tracks are more sand based then what we have in the US. I know Belmont is known as the "big sandy" does that mean it has more sand than the average US track? If so then maybe Master Fencer will enjoy the surface. Of course the nickname for Belmont might just refer to it's size, I don't know the answer to that.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Yes, I agree, it is too small a sample, but it is a trend - just like undefeated/undefeated at 3 for the Derby.

So the meat of the race was slow and then fast late. Thanks.
I would go with Master Fencer.

The beginning of a trend based on a small sample without looking at other important factors. I wouldn't automatically bet a horse in the Derby just because he was undefeated at 3 without knowing who he defeated and how. You know, silly stuff like speed, class, etc. Well, it's your money.
As to the "meat" of the Derby pace, it's not that simple. You can't ignore the fact the early Derby pace was fast. That's why CJ uses that in his pace figures as well as middle. Just like other handicapping factors, ignore at your own peril.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by chiguy

I believe Japanese tracks are more sand based then what we have in the US. I know Belmont is known as the "big sandy" does that mean it has more sand than the average US track? If so then maybe Master Fencer will enjoy the surface. Of course the nickname for Belmont might just refer to it's size, I don't know the answer to that.

Yes, it's big and sandy. I've galloped horses there. Also true that Japanese tracks are sandy so you can say that Mater Fencer is at least used to it and has had some success on the surface. Then again both Belmont and Japanese tracks also have other components and may differ overall. He doesn't seem to have a problem with typical American surfaces either and there are several American horses in the Belmont who have run better than him on them. He might have a chance at a minor placing though I wouldn't bet on it.