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Old 05-03-2019, 01:44 AM   #61
Parkview_Pirate
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
you should get a better price than that
Seeing a lot of chatter about this horse everywhere I look. Unlike some of the other favorites, no chinks in the armor on paper. I hope you're right, but fear he goes off half of the M/L odds, which makes him a huge underlay in the race.

Also surprised Roadster's morning is so low, though I suppose Baffert always attracts money.

Tacitus reminds me very much of Saarland back in the 2002 Derby. His M/L was 15-1 and I loved him, only to cringe when he became hot in the betting and went off at 6-1. Finished 10th, I believe.
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Old 05-03-2019, 09:41 AM   #62
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The fact that Tacitus is coming out of the Wood prep will keep his odds high; 10-1 looks right to me.
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Old 05-03-2019, 12:03 PM   #63
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The fact that Tacitus is coming out of the Wood prep will keep his odds high; 10-1 looks right to me.
He is the current favorite. That will change but he is going to take money and like I said a few weeks ago would likely be lower odds than Roadster.
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Old 05-03-2019, 02:44 PM   #64
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Tacitus and Improbable are currently 9/2 co-favorites with Improbable taking slightly more ($600 or so)
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Old 06-03-2019, 10:24 PM   #65
boys at tosconova
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how low is this horse going to be i the belmont......he might be the favorite
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Old 06-03-2019, 11:00 PM   #66
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how low is this horse going to be i the belmont......he might be the favorite
Good. Hope he takes a TON of $$.
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Old 06-04-2019, 01:48 AM   #67
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Good. Hope he takes a TON of $$.
he's impossible to eliminate vs this group
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Old 06-04-2019, 08:30 AM   #68
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I like him for the same reasons I liked him in the Derby. His three-year-old campaign is consistently better than most of these.

Similarly, I also still like Tax, but apparently he hasn’t been working well. WoW certainly won’t be cheap, and surely if I start backing him now, he’ll lose. Master Fencer looks more interesting here on paper than he did before, but apparently he’s facing some issues, too.

Tacitus probably the most promising out of the Derby that isn’t WoW and will take money accordingly. Close second choice?

I’m going to look hard the new shooters.
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Old 06-04-2019, 08:33 AM   #69
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Mott is hot right now. i thought i had the last race won on Sunday and his horse came back up the rail to ace me after my horse passed him 150 yards from the wire.
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Old 06-04-2019, 10:47 AM   #70
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Tacitus and War of Will will be very close on the tote board. might be co-favorites
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Old 06-04-2019, 12:14 PM   #71
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I like him for the same reasons I liked him in the Derby. His three-year-old campaign is consistently better than most of these.

Similarly, I also still like Tax, but apparently he hasn’t been working well. WoW certainly won’t be cheap, and surely if I start backing him now, he’ll lose. Master Fencer looks more interesting here on paper than he did before, but apparently he’s facing some issues, too.

Tacitus probably the most promising out of the Derby that isn’t WoW and will take money accordingly. Close second choice?

I’m going to look hard the new shooters.
It sorta reminds me of when I supported Union Rags and won at Belmont in 2012, Paynter and Atigun were 2nd/3rd, having just run in allowance races. UR was just there at the end and just snuck up on Paynter who almost went the distance with soft fractions.

Interestingly enough, both Paynter and Atigun had 16 classic points and DIs that were about 2.50. Union Rags was 2.33 with 14 classic points, 2 solid.
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Old 06-05-2019, 07:57 PM   #72
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tacitus is going to show a lil speed early,..there are some stone closers in this race.

he'll prolly be 5th/6th early on.

don't like the odds, but wut are you going to do..horse has too many positives
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:15 AM   #73
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Interestingly enough, both Paynter and Atigun had 16 classic points and DIs that were about 2.50. Union Rags was 2.33 with 14 classic points, 2 solid.
That's usually "the neighborhood" for the Belmont in terms of those numbers isn't it? I don't like to go over 3.00 which is why I'm thinking one of my tickets will be an exacta without Tacitus....or one with longshot on top and him in 2nd.

Last edited by clicknow; 06-06-2019 at 12:17 AM.
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Old 06-06-2019, 02:13 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
tacitus is going to show a lil speed early,..there are some stone closers in this race.

he'll prolly be 5th/6th early on.

don't like the odds, but wut are you going to do..horse has too many positives

Unfortunately I'm coming around to the same thought, just hoping the outcome isn't him winning, but I do have to use him. 2nd would be fine with me though. )
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Old 06-06-2019, 08:22 PM   #75
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Deserving favorite. Ran a solid Derby and is training lights out.

WOW is a deserving co-favorite/2nd choice.

Tacitus should be sharper, rested, and more ready for 12 panels than WOW. Distance and breeding hits him square in the mouth. Post position means nothing. A bit difficult to see him missing the board against this field.

9/5 is the right ML.
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