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05-03-2019, 01:44 AM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
you should get a better price than that
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Seeing a lot of chatter about this horse everywhere I look. Unlike some of the other favorites, no chinks in the armor on paper. I hope you're right, but fear he goes off half of the M/L odds, which makes him a huge underlay in the race.
Also surprised Roadster's morning is so low, though I suppose Baffert always attracts money.
Tacitus reminds me very much of Saarland back in the 2002 Derby. His M/L was 15-1 and I loved him, only to cringe when he became hot in the betting and went off at 6-1. Finished 10th, I believe.
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05-03-2019, 09:41 AM
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#62
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,574
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The fact that Tacitus is coming out of the Wood prep will keep his odds high; 10-1 looks right to me.
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05-03-2019, 12:03 PM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
The fact that Tacitus is coming out of the Wood prep will keep his odds high; 10-1 looks right to me.
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He is the current favorite. That will change but he is going to take money and like I said a few weeks ago would likely be lower odds than Roadster.
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05-03-2019, 02:44 PM
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#64
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Tacitus and Improbable are currently 9/2 co-favorites with Improbable taking slightly more ($600 or so)
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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06-03-2019, 10:24 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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how low is this horse going to be i the belmont......he might be the favorite
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06-03-2019, 11:00 PM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
how low is this horse going to be i the belmont......he might be the favorite
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Good. Hope he takes a TON of $$.
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06-04-2019, 01:48 AM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
Good. Hope he takes a TON of $$.
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he's impossible to eliminate vs this group
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06-04-2019, 08:30 AM
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#68
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Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 684
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I like him for the same reasons I liked him in the Derby. His three-year-old campaign is consistently better than most of these.
Similarly, I also still like Tax, but apparently he hasn’t been working well. WoW certainly won’t be cheap, and surely if I start backing him now, he’ll lose. Master Fencer looks more interesting here on paper than he did before, but apparently he’s facing some issues, too.
Tacitus probably the most promising out of the Derby that isn’t WoW and will take money accordingly. Close second choice?
I’m going to look hard the new shooters.
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06-04-2019, 08:33 AM
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#69
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,654
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Mott is hot right now. i thought i had the last race won on Sunday and his horse came back up the rail to ace me after my horse passed him 150 yards from the wire.
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06-04-2019, 10:47 AM
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#70
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 148
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Tacitus and War of Will will be very close on the tote board. might be co-favorites
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06-04-2019, 12:14 PM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerocraft67
I like him for the same reasons I liked him in the Derby. His three-year-old campaign is consistently better than most of these.
Similarly, I also still like Tax, but apparently he hasn’t been working well. WoW certainly won’t be cheap, and surely if I start backing him now, he’ll lose. Master Fencer looks more interesting here on paper than he did before, but apparently he’s facing some issues, too.
Tacitus probably the most promising out of the Derby that isn’t WoW and will take money accordingly. Close second choice?
I’m going to look hard the new shooters.
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It sorta reminds me of when I supported Union Rags and won at Belmont in 2012, Paynter and Atigun were 2nd/3rd, having just run in allowance races. UR was just there at the end and just snuck up on Paynter who almost went the distance with soft fractions.
Interestingly enough, both Paynter and Atigun had 16 classic points and DIs that were about 2.50. Union Rags was 2.33 with 14 classic points, 2 solid.
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06-05-2019, 07:57 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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tacitus is going to show a lil speed early,..there are some stone closers in this race.
he'll prolly be 5th/6th early on.
don't like the odds, but wut are you going to do..horse has too many positives
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06-06-2019, 12:15 AM
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#73
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
Interestingly enough, both Paynter and Atigun had 16 classic points and DIs that were about 2.50. Union Rags was 2.33 with 14 classic points, 2 solid.
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That's usually "the neighborhood" for the Belmont in terms of those numbers isn't it? I don't like to go over 3.00 which is why I'm thinking one of my tickets will be an exacta without Tacitus....or one with longshot on top and him in 2nd.
Last edited by clicknow; 06-06-2019 at 12:17 AM.
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06-06-2019, 02:13 AM
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#74
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
tacitus is going to show a lil speed early,..there are some stone closers in this race.
he'll prolly be 5th/6th early on.
don't like the odds, but wut are you going to do..horse has too many positives
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Unfortunately I'm coming around to the same thought, just hoping the outcome isn't him winning, but I do have to use him. 2nd would be fine with me though. )
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06-06-2019, 08:22 PM
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#75
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Deserving favorite. Ran a solid Derby and is training lights out.
WOW is a deserving co-favorite/2nd choice.
Tacitus should be sharper, rested, and more ready for 12 panels than WOW. Distance and breeding hits him square in the mouth. Post position means nothing. A bit difficult to see him missing the board against this field.
9/5 is the right ML.
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