Tacitus

[depalma113]

He's my top pick and I fully expect him to win.

[Aerocraft67]

I really like him as the public's fifth choice and my top win pick accordingly.

The top three seem more or less legitimate, but not appreciably more likely than this one to justify their higher prices. I like him better than the for the same price.

Beyond that is a drop in win contention, but some interesting runners to consider.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by depalma113

He's my top pick and I fully expect him to win.

i would be lying if i said he didn't look like a legit KD horse. big and strong, and his last race gave us a peek that he has some early foot if warranted.

probably sitting 8/10 ..and should will be making a move towards the front at some point.

that's the good news, the bad news is that i've felt that way with many wood horses dating back to 2012 and have thrown cash at them hand over fist only to have them run like turds

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i would be lying if i said he didn't look like a legit KD horse. big and strong, and his last race gave us a peek that he has some early foot if warranted.

probably sitting 8/10 ..and should will be making a move towards the front at some point.

that's the good news, the bad news is that i've felt that way with many wood horses dating back to 2012 and have thrown cash at them hand over fist only to have them run like turds

Didn’t you say the winner was coming from this race before it happened?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

that's the good news, the bad news is that i've felt that way with many wood horses dating back to 2012 and have thrown cash at them hand over fist only to have them run like turds

I won't dismiss a horse simply because he ran in the Wood... but yeah. I was very high on Vino Rosso last year and liked Frosted in 2015. Tacitus reminds me a lot of Frosted yet Frosted had bigger figures in the Wood and was only good enough for 4th, beaten by a pair of Bafferts and Firing Line. I like Tacitus but see a similar scenario unfolding like 2015. I give him an advantage over other closing types as he should be sitting closer, however, there are many horses here that posted faster final 3/8th figures raw or adjusted. I will still give him at least mild use underneath in the gimmicks.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

Didn’t you say the winner was coming from this race before it happened?

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I won't dismiss a horse simply because he ran in the Wood... but yeah. I was very high on Vino Rosso last year and liked Frosted in 2015. Tacitus reminds me a lot of Frosted yet Frosted had bigger figures in the Wood and was only good enough for 4th, beaten by a pair of Bafferts and Firing Line. I like Tacitus but see a similar scenario unfolding like 2015. I give him an advantage over other closing types as he should be sitting closer, however, there are many horses here that posted faster final 3/8th figures raw or adjusted. I will still give him at least mild use underneath in the gimmicks.

oh..i won't dismiss because of previous history with the wood either. i will dismiss for other reasons. horse is more likely to hit the board than win imo. but that was with ob in the race

[LemonSoupKid]

Dortmund, Firing Line and Pharoah were 1-2-3 the whole way

Frosted broke 14, went 15th then made a 5w move

Times were 23.2, 47.3, 1:11.3, and 1:36.4 for the mile. The final time was 2:03.02, AP by a length.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i would be lying if i said he didn't look like a legit KD horse. big and strong, and his last race gave us a peek that he has some early foot if warranted.

probably sitting 8/10 ..and should will be making a move towards the front at some point.

that's the good news, the bad news is that i've felt that way with many wood horses dating back to 2012 and have thrown cash at them hand over fist only to have them run like turds

It's not the Wood that has me backing him, it's his Tampa Bay Derby.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by depalma113

It's not the Wood that has me backing him, it's his Tampa Bay Derby.

I'm curious to know what you spotted in that race. I saw a typical pace breakdown with him reaping the reward as a good closing horse should.

Splits:
23.06, 23.72, 25.87, 6.46

This in contrast to the Arkansas Derby which featured this:
24.42, 24.96, 25.07, 12.38

Note there is no rest for the weary with the 3/4 to mile split in the Ark that helped propel Tacitus in Tampa and Roadster at Santa Anita.

I like the horse but if Improbable, MS, or someone else just goes around posting 12.3 second panels then he would have a tough time getting up. Of course, if you expect a lively pace then he's a must include.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm curious to know what you spotted in that race. I saw a typical pace breakdown with him reaping the reward as a good closing horse should.

Splits:
23.06, 23.72, 25.87, 6.46

This in contrast to the Arkansas Derby which featured this:
24.42, 24.96, 25.07, 12.38

Note there is no rest for the weary with the 3/4 to mile split in the Ark that helped propel Tacitus in Tampa and Roadster at Santa Anita.

I like the horse but if Improbable, MS, or someone else just goes around posting 12.3 second panels then he would have a tough time getting up. Of course, if you expect a lively pace then he's a must include.

Tacitus' 4 furlong to 6 furlong split in 22.62 is what sold me.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

oh..i won't dismiss because of previous history with the wood either. i will dismiss for other reasons. horse is more likely to hit the board than win imo. but that was with ob in the race

From the wood pops post:

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

awesome field.

prolly the best so far.

what's going to be really sad the 2nd half of this field is prolly better than horses in the derby

the wood breaks it's jinx this year in the derby....imo

Maybe I’m missing the joke here, love your passion for the game regardless.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I won't dismiss a horse simply because he ran in the Wood... but yeah. I was very high on Vino Rosso last year and liked Frosted in 2015. Tacitus reminds me a lot of Frosted yet Frosted had bigger figures in the Wood and was only good enough for 4th, beaten by a pair of Bafferts and Firing Line. I like Tacitus but see a similar scenario unfolding like 2015. I give him an advantage over other closing types as he should be sitting closer, however, there are many horses here that posted faster final 3/8th figures raw or adjusted. I will still give him at least mild use underneath in the gimmicks.

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

From the wood pops post:


Maybe I’m missing the joke here, love your passion for the game regardless.

yeah..maybe it breaks it's jinx of having a horse hit the board

[boys at tosconova]

lets just kill tacitus right now

$1.oo ex boxes

1-8
6-8

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

lets just kill tacitus right now

$1.oo ex boxes

1-8
6-8

Not your fault BaTman.



Tacitus is gonna be massively overbet by the East Coast NY crowd. They want a Derby winner so bad you can feel the sweat off of their teeth.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Not your fault BaTman.



Tacitus is gonna be massively overbet by the East Coast NY crowd. They want a Derby winner so bad you can feel the sweat off of their teeth.

obv saver bets. i don't want tacitus with the 3 baf's in the exacta