Omaha Beach or Roadster?

[Racetrack Playa]

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[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

-On the Roadster vs. By My Standards stuff - Not 100% 'fair', because out of the 20 or 30 derby points PPs, I kind of (intentionally) hand-picked those two similarities.

They each won a graded stakes and a maiden. BMS did it in a 10 horse field; Roadster got handed the race by the other jockey in a field w/only 5 others but really only 4 since one played interference for him to win.

That one is 4-1 and one is 30-1 I find quite humorous.

Guess the Baffert hype train is alive and well.

I give Roadster ZERO chance of a win here.

If you gave me $20 and I had a chance to wager one or the other on free money, I'd have to choose the value horse with the better odds.

[classhandicapper]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer;2455123

However, the post was made with your comments involved; the 'paper' form doesn't match the hype. Here are two contenders with similar paper form, but radically different pricing, and that Roadster comes with a bandwagon of fans, perhaps even an underlay.[/QUOTE]

I agree with everything you are saying, but I wonder about the prices.

To me, Roadster hasn't been as good as some of the other major contenders yet. I think Game Winner was probably better than him in the SA Derby even though he lost. The hype is mostly related to Baffert saying Roadster was his best Derby prospect last year. So some people are assuming there's probably a lot more left in the tank we haven't seen yet.

On the flip side I've seen a lot of smart people dissing him because he probably got the best of the trip last time and Smith rejected him in favor of Omaha Beach.

He may wind up going off a little longer than we think.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by Racetrack Playa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgw_WZfJT3Q

Nice research, nice post; informative and worthwhile.

Interesting they "stitch" the crack together and "cement" it; good as new. Most importantly, the connections are transparent and have informed the bettors of what is actually happening w/this colt . . .

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by clicknow

They each won a graded stakes and a maiden. BMS did it in a 10 horse field; Roadster got handed the race by the other jockey in a field w/only 5 others but really only 4 since one played interference for him to win.

That one is 4-1 and one is 30-1 I find quite humorous.

Guess the Baffert hype train is alive and well.

I give Roadster ZERO chance of a win here.

If you gave me $20 and I had a chance to wager one or the other on free money, I'd have to choose the value horse with the better odds.

Strong opinion.
This is my natural inclination based on my models and my own cynical inclination.

Originally Posted by zico20

There is a reason for the huge difference in odds. Roadster WILL be a superstar where By My Standards will be lucky to be a G3 winner against older down the road. There is no comparing the two. The only question is will Roadster be ready at Derby time to prove his greatness.

Strong opinion.
As much as I hate the TMZ hype, and dislike the just-pick-a-Baffert fan money, I have to admit, there are some things to really like about this horse.
First time watching the Santa Anita Derby, (first, aside from tearing my small Instagrand to Win pace wager into tiny pieces , of course ), was to praise Game Winner for 'doing all the work' and losing ground. And while those are good models, I can't help but also see the possibility that while Game Winner is a G2 Mile-8.5f-9f+ warrior who runs with admirable heart, that perhaps Roadster is a type who can relish 10 furlongs. I'm cheating here, because I know who Game Winner is. And I know who Baffert is. And I've watched Roadster's recent work on 4/20, where he is clocked at 6f, and ends up going about a mile over that loose, deep track.
For me the price is terrible, and he started out as an 'automatic toss'. At this point, he's a 'reluctant-must-use'. If I thought Roadster was a lock to be great, he'd be my 'key', as I believe that the race will play fairly to both speed and stretch-runners.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree with everything you are saying, but I wonder about the prices.

To me, Roadster hasn't been as good as some of the other major contenders yet. I think Game Winner was probably better than him in the SA Derby even though he lost. The hype is mostly related to Baffert saying Roadster was his best Derby prospect last year. So some people are assuming there's probably a lot more left in the tank we haven't seen yet.

On the flip side I've seen a lot of smart people dissing him because he probably got the best of the trip last time and Smith rejected him in favor of Omaha Beach.

He may wind up going off a little longer than we think.

Class,

I agree with your last couple sentences. His figures are slowish with cake trips and your not supposed to back horses at lowish odds with the hope there is another move forward. That being said I think you right that he is likely to be 4th choice and not 2nd choice, maybe even 5th choice behind the Wood winner.

I like him as a race horse, just not sure I love him at 10F or at the price, if he was in that 12/1 range that seems more fair but he will not be. I still think his real future may be on turf, though he wouldnt do that under his current trainer.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Class,

I agree with your last couple sentences. His figures are slowish with cake trips and your not supposed to back horses at lowish odds with the hope there is another move forward. That being said I think you right that he is likely to be 4th choice and not 2nd choice, maybe even 5th choice behind the Wood winner.

I like him as a race horse, just not sure I love him at 10F or at the price, if he was in that 12/1 range that seems more fair but he will not be. I still think his real future may be on turf, though he wouldnt do that under his current trainer.

I will bet my house against your car that Roadster is lower odds than Tacitus. Maybe I will get lucky and you own a Ferrari.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by zico20

I will bet my house against your car that Roadster is lower odds than Tacitus. Maybe I will get lucky and you own a Ferrari.

he likely wont based on his trainer but I have a feeling they are going to be much closer in odds than people are suspecting.

[f2tornado]

I don't like either in the win spot so the lower the odds the better. There seems to be some weird infatuation with Roadster so I expect him to take plenty of money. He was hammered to favoritism in Pool 4, albeit prior to Omaha's solid eye test in the Ark and Mike Smith's decision.

I, like many others, might throw some money at a nice overlay but my primary bets will be put together long before the tote is running.

[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I don't like either in the win spot so the lower the odds the better. There seems to be some weird infatuation with Roadster so I expect him to take plenty of money. He was hammered to favoritism in Pool 4, albeit prior to Omaha's solid eye test in the Ark and Mike Smith's decision.

I, like many others, might throw some money at a nice overlay but my primary bets will be put together long before the tote is running.

I hope the media plays up the TMZ Baffert quote about Roadster.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

This is probably the 3rd or 4th video I've seen of Papa Mandella giving Omaha Beach some love.


He really really likes this horse. Would be pretty cool to see him win one.

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[zico20]

Baffert said he loved Roadster's final workout. He said the SA Derby got him pretty fit, and after that he could see a big change in him. He really needed that race, according to Baffert.

[Bennie]

Here is my take on Roadster. On paper he is a must use in all positions but my concern is the throat surgery he had to correct his breathing problem. I believe the ride he got in his last race was to purposely keep him out of trouble because you can't choke a horse down after this type of surgery. Come Derby day I believe you need to keep him in a clear position and avoid all traffic problems. Maybe this is a factor Mike Smith took into consideration when he chose to ride Omaha. He knows what to expect from this horse. If the rider of Roadster needs to check hard there is the possibility that Roadster could just stop and throw in the towel so to speak. Post draw may be the telling factor for this horse if he can't break clean and establish a good position. I have to use him a little just because but would not be surprised if he finishes up the track.

[señorclipclop]

What if Rajiv Maragh decides to take a right turn out of the gate with Haikal?

[GaryG]

I have watched the videos numerous times and I see Omaha Beach as the true 10 furlong horse. In the Ark Derby he looked like he was ready to go around again. Smith won't be making an early move with him this time.