Weak Crop

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by cj

Are these horses really that great or just the survivors (Good Magic not included)?

This is a fair question.
It's a solid bunch.
Starting with the 2yo jacket:

Catholic Boy: Gr. 3 With Anticipation/Gr. 2 Remsen........bonus points for the Graded Grass/Dirt double.
Firenze Fire: Gr. 3 Sanford/Gr. 1 Champagne.
Flameaway: Gr. 3 Bourbon.
Good Magic: Gr. 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile.
McKinzie: Gr. 1 Los Alamitos Futurity.
Mendelssohn: Gr. 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.

The other half will be the last calendar year(skipping the 2018 TC Trail):

Catholic Boy: Gr. 3 Pennie Ridge/Gr. 1 Belmont Derby/Gr. 1 Travers/Gr. 2 Dixie.
Firenze Fire: Gr. 3 Dwyer/Gr. 3 Gallant Bob.
Good Magic: Gr. 1 Haskell.
McKenzie: Gr. 1 Penn Derby/Gr. 1 Malibu/Gr. 2 Alysheba
Promises Fulfilled: Gr. 3 Amsterdam/Gr. 1 Allen Jerkins/Gr. 2 Phoenix.
Tenfold: Gr. 2 Jim Dandy/Gr. 3 Pimlico Special.
Vino Rosso: Gr. 1 Gold Cup.

This class held up well compared to others in the decade(2014 being the gold standard).

[Robert Fischer]

Justify: was like a prime 'Bo Jackson'.

The public doesn't even realize that he mildly re-injured his quarter-crack in the Santa Anita Derby, and that he significantly re-injured his quarter-crack in the Kentuck Derby. My (relatively limited degree of insider) sources has it that Curtis Burns treated Justify(may have been his polyflex technique) after the Kentucky Derby and saved the Triple Crown. Justify was extremely close to being retired after the Kentucky Derby.

In the Preakness, he was about 75%, and was fortunate to face a depleted field, and capitalize on not only his talent, but Mike Smith subtly bumping Good Magic off-stride. I disagree with figures that had the Preakness fast.

Justify then surprised me between the Preakness and the Belmont, where his health improved dramatically. His Belmont was not as impressive to me as his Kentucky Derby(a very strong race, stronger yet when considering pace), and I thought he may have really drawn off to put on a show, but I guess it could have gambled with the health concerns (as well as not really appearing to have a ton more in the tank). I would have loved to see Justify at 100% health vs. Grade 1 rivals, and getting a good trip. He may have done something historically amazing in that situation.




Catholic Boy: -I've consistently underrated this guy with wagering decisions. He's got a striking name, and I have a personal bias when a horse takes money for their name to look to exploit, but he has run well. I don't think he's any kind of superhorse (either does the public), but he's solid. Cool horse who has achieved. Not necessarily the type to promote the crop, but he's solid.

Firenze Fire: Not the greatest animal in the world, but his connections did such a great job bringing him along with diet and exercise. His surprising improvement in the Dwyer (along with the betting coup that accurately predicted the event) was noteworthy.

Flameaway: Allowance, g3 type with some early pace and some 'hang' in him.

Good Magic: Solid horse. Ran a really big Kentucky Derby. Was lengths better than Audible in that race.

McKinzie: Overcame some issues, and had a problem where was a 'tail swisher' in response to the whip. They had to get him right, as well as learn to use a 'hard drive' without the whip. He was a 'lean-against' in the Classic last year at underlayed odds, in part due to the aforementioned issues. McKinzie was the best horse in the Met Mile this year. He is currently one of the favorites for the Classic this year, and if health cooperates, a worthy favorite.

Mendelssohn: He was solid fundamentally-sound turf horse. He was also a classier version of Hidden Scroll (think along the lines of the basic models that I am alluding to). He became a 'project' to have a Kentucky Derby and Classic horse, and his connections learned a good deal.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by cj

Are these horses really that great or just the survivors

None on the list are great. Some of them are *decent race horses* at best.

Not seeing any Gun Runners, Rachel Alexandras or Almond Eyes here.

Wake me up when any of them even get near Thunder Snow, Gun Runner, California Chrome, or Curlin $10 million in earnings.

Certainly can't even compare to Justify but he wasn't really all that either--cuz in the scheme of things, both domestically and internationally, he is nowhere near the top in terms of # of times undefeated, most wins, most wins in one season, most G1s won, most consecuetive G1s won, or earnings when compared to any historical perpectives.

I surely hope this is not where U.S. racing is going, or aiming for....a horse with brittle feet whose career spanned only 6 months.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Justify: was like a prime 'Bo Jackson'.

The public doesn't even realize that he mildly re-injured his quarter-crack in the Santa Anita Derby, and that he significantly re-injured his quarter-crack in the Kentuck Derby. My (relatively limited degree of insider) sources has it that Curtis Burns treated Justify(may have been his polyflex technique) after the Kentucky Derby and saved the Triple Crown. Justify was extremely close to being retired after the Kentucky Derby.

In the Preakness, he was about 75%, and was fortunate to face a depleted field, and capitalize on not only his talent, but Mike Smith subtly bumping Good Magic off-stride. I disagree with figures that had the Preakness fast.

Justify then surprised me between the Preakness and the Belmont, where his health improved dramatically. His Belmont was not as impressive to me as his Kentucky Derby(a very strong race, stronger yet when considering pace), and I thought he may have really drawn off to put on a show, but I guess it could have gambled with the health concerns (as well as not really appearing to have a ton more in the tank). I would have loved to see Justify at 100% health vs. Grade 1 rivals, and getting a good trip. He may have done something historically amazing in that situation.




Catholic Boy: -I've consistently underrated this guy with wagering decisions. He's got a striking name, and I have a personal bias when a horse takes money for their name to look to exploit, but he has run well. I don't think he's any kind of superhorse (either does the public), but he's solid. Cool horse who has achieved. Not necessarily the type to promote the crop, but he's solid.

Firenze Fire: Not the greatest animal in the world, but his connections did such a great job bringing him along with diet and exercise. His surprising improvement in the Dwyer (along with the betting coup that accurately predicted the event) was noteworthy.

Flameaway: Allowance, g3 type with some early pace and some 'hang' in him.

Good Magic: Solid horse. Ran a really big Kentucky Derby. Was lengths better than Audible in that race.

McKinzie: Overcame some issues, and had a problem where was a 'tail swisher' in response to the whip. They had to get him right, as well as learn to use a 'hard drive' without the whip. He was a 'lean-against' in the Classic last year at underlayed odds, in part due to the aforementioned issues. McKinzie was the best horse in the Met Mile this year. He is currently one of the favorites for the Classic this year, and if health cooperates, a worthy favorite.

Mendelssohn: He was solid fundamentally-sound turf horse. He was also a classier version of Hidden Scroll (think along the lines of the basic models that I am alluding to). He became a 'project' to have a Kentucky Derby and Classic horse, and his connections learned a good deal.

+1
Good read on those horses.
I'll add on a bit....
That Catholic Boy is really hard to get by in the stretch.
McKinzie in all likelihood will become a Gr. 1 winner for the third year in a row......no easy task.
Correct on Justify.......Monster.