New Pace

[bob60566]

How are all the new users that have New Pace in how your hancapping has improved have some info over last 6 weeks that i have been using.
Main thing for me was time to handicap races pencil and paper got it solved and the time produced results using New pace.
I had never based my handlcapping on Exactors untill now.
Mac

[Dave Schwartz]

Just another $100 winner.
Link to NewPace

[jeebus1083]

Here's Sunday Race 9 from Aqueduct (inner finale):

Early Horses (POR: 69)
1 30 (56/66)
2 28 (69/78)
5 19 (44/76)
7+ (x/69)

#1 doesn't have an early advantage, nor is she dominant, and does not figure into the POR. To me, this one is a "price only" play. #2 could be the pacesetter, and #5 is capable of running to that pace. Since both runners own the top HiRegSpeed, they are the main "early" contenders in the stretch run. The #7 is a swing, so she goes to the next array.

That leaves us with the Late Horses:
3 65
4 69
7 61
8 64
9 62

#4 has the top LowRegSpeed of the lates, with #3 and #8 essentially tied. However, #3 gets the nod for top overall lifetime speed.

The stretch run outlook (with ML odds):
2 (7/2)
5 (20-1)
4 (3-1)
3 (12-1)

Price Only: 1 (6-1, Minimum Odds 7-1+)

The play looks like:
3-5/2-3-4-5 exacta
Win bets 3 & 5

Let's see what happens...

[jeebus1083]

#5 runs to the pace picture until the stretch. Quits.
#3 forgot her running shoes today.

Perhaps... I should have made the #8 a price only play... 9-1 on the wire, with the #4 under would have made a nice exacta. So freaking easy after the race. Perhaps.

[Aner]

There was a little girl who had a little curl
Right in the middle of her forehead;
When she was good, she was very, very good,
And when she was bad she was horrid.

Like most systems that rely on longer odds horses, this one blows hot and cold.

Of the tracks I played in the last two weeks, it was horrid. Must admit I also have had some good weeks.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Just another $100 winner.
Link to NewPace

the trainer that won that race was 0/21. i never heard of him, but the guy did tell my friend who was the jock agent on that horse for louis garcia that he was going to win. he asked me what i thought of the horse, i said he don't look that bad based on my pace figures he was actually 2nd best horse. but i told the guy i never heard of the trainer. to make a long story short i made a double with that horse to a 1-5 that looked like a cinch. i happened to have a horse in that second race that i gave no chance to. bottom line you know exactly what happened, my horse win the second race there and the chalk run a poor 3rd!

[Dave Schwartz]

AQU09 - I get different horses because I am using different speed. But I guess it doesn't help. Can't win them all.

[Dave Schwartz]

Just realized that #6 was a scratch. I still don't get the #8.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by jeebus1083

Here's Sunday Race 9 from Aqueduct (inner finale):

Early Horses (POR: 69)
1 30 (56/66)
2 28 (69/78)
5 19 (44/76)
7+ (x/69)

#1 doesn't have an early advantage, nor is she dominant, and does not figure into the POR. To me, this one is a "price only" play. #2 could be the pacesetter, and #5 is capable of running to that pace. Since both runners own the top HiRegSpeed, they are the main "early" contenders in the stretch run. The #7 is a swing, so she goes to the next array.

That leaves us with the Late Horses:
3 65
4 69
7 61
8 64
9 62

#4 has the top LowRegSpeed of the lates, with #3 and #8 essentially tied. However, #3 gets the nod for top overall lifetime speed.

The stretch run outlook (with ML odds):
2 (7/2)
5 (20-1)
4 (3-1)
3 (12-1)

Price Only: 1 (6-1, Minimum Odds 7-1+)

The play looks like:
3-5/2-3-4-5 exacta
Win bets 3 & 5

Let's see what happens...

Yeah, tie breakers can take you off a horse, when you really want the opportunity to bet the horse if it's a contender and a good price.

I think what Dave has in mind is not necessarily getting rid of contenders but rather to keep contenders and bet those with the best prices.

Why else would you keep at least 4 contenders? If you wanted to separate contenders then you would want to get down to 1 or 2 plays, not 4 or more, IMO.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by raybo

Yeah, tie breakers can take you off a horse, when you really want the opportunity to bet the horse if it's a contender and a good price.

I think what Dave has in mind is not necessarily getting rid of contenders but rather to keep contenders and bet those with the best prices.

Why else would you keep at least 4 contenders? If you wanted to separate contenders then you would want to get down to 1 or 2 plays, not 4 or more, IMO.

That is 100% Correct
Mac

[Dave Schwartz]

The big mistake that most players make is that they separate their contenders based upon handicapping rather than value.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The big mistake that most players make is that they separate their contenders based upon handicapping rather than value.

Correct!!

It's even true in my game, the supers. I don't look for horses to take off the ticket, I look for horses I can legitimately put on the ticket, and it's all based on "value".

The one exception is sometimes on the win line, but then, sometimes there are no exceptions.

[pandy]

My system, Diamond, put the 8 on top in the last race at Aqueduct today, based on the horse's race two back. Interesting thing, the favorite (2) has the best recent speed figure, but if you use final time you can see that the 8 horse's race two back was clearly the fastest recent race over the track. A lot of people don't realize this, but real time often beats adjusted (speed figs) time.

[Jake]

This is a discussion that I just had today with a good friend. I never look outside my handicapped contenders. Then I only play where there is value in the pools. This has worked for me well. If everyone keeps pace handicapping into their wagering strategy, I will always stay solvent. Tough game, value handicapping works well. Nice thread.

Jake

[Kevroc]

I used NewPace exclusively this weekend and got smoked.

I'm not blaming the system, I'm blaming my wagering strategies.

Take the 5th race at Delta from Saturday night for example:

4 Tovarich Shane Laviolette 42.40 18.20 7.20
6 Shannon's Power Tracy J. Hebert 17.20 8.20
2 Jake's Tuition Kevin J. Smith 3.00

Also ran: 10 - I Kan Boo , 3 - Mollys Missb'havin , 8 - La Graeme , 5 - Nibbles N Kisses , 9 - Dream High , 1 - Terlingua Cat , 7 - Sheryars Valentine


$2 Exacta 4-6 490.80
$2 Trifecta 4-6-2 2,763.00

I came up with the contenders as 2-3-4-6

The 4 and 6 were both 20:1

The 2 was 5:2 and the 3 was 8/5

The 3 was a "monster" play, so I keyed the 3 over the 2-4-6



Stuff like that got me killed... I enjoy doing the worksheets but, I'm finding it very difficult to wager properly and would be interested in continued conversation about it.

Many other tickets were torn up trying to play pick threes and pick fours.. but, I do think there could be good value in doubles.

Also, I'd be intersted in hearing what types of races people are using it with and their results...

I've been looking for fields of 8 or more, any surface, any age, any conditions.