THE INSANITY CURRENTLY GRIPPING THE INDUSTRY HAS TO END NOW!

[Prioress Ply]

It's one thing to have a bad morning line. Happens all the time and everyone is on an equal playing field with it. It's quite another thing to see the situation PA describes in his original post. Like this one that went from 11-1 to 6-1.

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[JustRalph]

I’ve done it. You can too.

Stop playing. Until you do.....nothing changes.

I play a couple times a year, tops. Put your money some place else

[thaskalos]

Like TVG's Peter Lurie says..."You gotta take what they give you".

[Prioress Ply]

And he certainly is an impartial source for that assessment.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I do. How else can all the late money focus on only one horse?

I think virtually every post in this thread is excellent. This is the post that gets me. It is the most perplexing factor for me to believe on its face. I can deal with a reasonable percentage of cases where inside information is accurate. But I can tell from meeting most trainers and owners, they are hardly experts.

One example, just for fun....I got to hang around Noel Hickey for a season at Canterbury Park in 2001. He had a horse in a race that was a stone cold closer. He asked me if he thought his horse would be lone speed. I thought he misspoke and asked him to clarify. He had absolutely no idea what the other horses in the race were going to do or how they were likely to run. I was seriously dumbfounded.

I think a lot of connections know "their" horse but that doesn't make them an expert on others in the race. That being said, late money should only be slightly more correct than early money (our money). In many cases, if it is inside connection betting, their late money should be garbage.

However, I've seen (mainly in the last 5-10 years) that this late money is so accurate that it defies common sense. This is the reason that all of us on here are tempted to assign it to past posting. How else could that late money be so right? Unless you add in something more nefarious like performance enhancing drugs. In that case, the others in the race are of lesser importance since you know "your horse" is going to jump up off the page.

I hate being cynical but it isn't my fault, or anyone on this board's fault. It is the industry that does NOTHING about these anomalies and allows us, customers to wildly speculate.

Did anyone see the detailed investigation regarding the Sunland Derby winner? All the late action, wide trip, change in style and blow out win? Oh, that's right, nothing was done and it never even hit the radar of those who should be interested in the integrity of the game.

Finally, I've said it once, or a million times...the track gets their cut. Period. Where the money goes from there is of almost no concern to them. They do not want to jeopardize the size of the pool, so when, or how, the money shows up, as long as it's in the pool and they draw their takeout, they have no incentive to look under the rug. Now, if the odds were fixed and the track was on the hook, I absolutely 100% guarantee you that these shenanigans would not be occurring. They would have LONG AGO stopped betting 1 minute to actual post and made sure detailed audits were done regarding time stamping or whatever is needed to make sure the betting is clean.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Like TVG's Peter Lurie says..."You gotta take what they give you".

Yea...said by someone who carries around rolls of copper in their pocket.

[Track Phantom]

...and by the way, do you really think this industry is going to fix this problem? This is the same industry that adopted a 10-12 minute post drag to enhance the amount of betting into their pools. They did this at the vehement disgust of nearly every serious (or even casual player). Those kinds of "business" decisions do not strike me as player friendly or even player concerned.

[Denny]

Track Phantom,

Lots of good stuff there.

How about if someone shut off the casino dole? Maybe racetrack execs would do something about the product?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Denny

Track Phantom,

Lots of good stuff there.

Not really. Not in my opinion.

Anyone who attributes the "late money" being the "best money" due to past posting is living in a dreamworld.

YES, there are people out there MUCH BETTER at this game than you or I or 99.9% of the people out there.

That's why they're pushing MILLIONS through the windows every month while Joe Schmo is lucky to push a thousand a month through the windows.

They aren't risking MILLIONS a month because they suck at this game. Or because they are getting a free ride and past posting.

They're risking MILLIONS because their models are THAT GOOD, AND they're basically getting FIXED ODDS because they bet at the very end and know how much their money (and to some extent, other big-time team money) will push the odds.

It's really that simple.

Look, horseracing isn't exactly splitting the atom...it's not that difficult a game to beat with the right brilliant minds behind it...it really isn't.

To think, in this day and age, a team of PHDs can't beat horse racing with the computer power available in 2018, is insane. And that means they are WAY BETTER than 99%+ of the people out there playing. And that's WITHOUT their FIXED ODDS advantage or their rebates.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Not really. Not in my opinion.

Anyone who attributes the "late money" being the "best money" due to past posting is living in a dreamworld.

YES, there are people out there MUCH BETTER at this game than you or I or 99.9% of the people out there.

That's why they're pushing MILLIONS through the windows every month while Joe Schmo is lucky to push a thousand a month through the windows.

They aren't risking MILLIONS a month because they suck at this game. Or because they are getting a free ride and past posting.

They're risking MILLIONS because their models are THAT GOOD, AND they're basically getting FIXED ODDS because they bet at the very end and know how much their money (and to some extent, other big-time team money) will push the odds.

It's really that simple.

Look, horseracing isn't exactly splitting the atom...it's not that difficult a game to beat with the right brilliant minds behind it...it really isn't.

To think, in this day and age, a team of PHDs can't beat horse racing with the computer power available in 2018, is insane. And that means they are WAY BETTER than 99%+ of the people out there playing. And that's WITHOUT their FIXED ODDS advantage or their rebates.

...and you obviously have proof to make these highly definitive statements? Please point me to the link or report you gleaned this information from. I'm curious now.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

...and you obviously have proof to make these highly definitive statements? Please point me to the link or report you gleaned this information from. I'm curious now.

The past posting angle is utter insanity. They would have been busted a long time ago. Even the fools and crooks who run racing wouldn't be able to keep that quiet for all this time.

How about YOU show me this PROOF of rampant past posting amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars A DAY, which is what it would be if your claims were true.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The past posting angle is utter insanity. They would have been busted a long time ago. Even the fools and crooks who run racing wouldn't be able to keep that quiet for all this time.

How about YOU show me this PROOF of rampant past posting amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars A DAY, which is what it would be if your claims were true.

Point me to the post I made claiming this is happening.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Point me to the post I made claiming this is happening.

"However, I've seen (mainly in the last 5-10 years) that this late money is so accurate that it defies common sense. This is the reason that all of us on here are tempted to assign it to past posting. How else could that late money be so right? "

You brushed up against it pretty good right there, at the very least.

Why is it so hard to believe that smart people with really awesome tools and a fat-ass bankroll couldn't destroy this game at the windows...raking in a profit...plus a rebate?

I made a profit posting over 500 races at tracks all over the country, and I suck. You don't think someone 100x smarter than me with software 1,000,000 times better than I use, couldn't turn out way better results?

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

"However, I've seen (mainly in the last 5-10 years) that this late money is so accurate that it defies common sense. This is the reason that all of us on here are tempted to assign it to past posting. How else could that late money be so right? "

You brushed up against it pretty good right there, at the very least.

Why is it so hard to believe that smart people with really awesome tools and a fat-ass bankroll couldn't destroy this game at the windows...raking in a profit...plus a rebate?

I made a profit posting over 500 races at tracks all over the country, and I suck. You don't think someone 100x smarter than me with software 1,000,000 times better than I use, couldn't turn out way better results?

The devil is in the detail. My intent of that comment was "all of us are tempted" to assign it to past posting. Personally, I am skeptical this is the issue but the results call for wild speculation.

I have no idea what is going, and my point is, neither do you. You made very specific statements that if true are only so by accident. I am not doubting it's possible nor do I doubt that hacking into the tote system is possible. Of the two, only the hacking portion has been proven to be possible. Those using horse racing as a personal ATM is nothing more than a self-serving comment made by people that have enveloped themselves so deeply into the game that the idea that it can't be beat by "someone" would cast idiocy onto those continuing to invest time and energy into a losing proposition.

In short, I need proof to believe anyone, and I mean ANYONE, is beating this game legitimately on a daily, weekly or yearly basis. I think all of us can win for periods of time but don't believe anyone has the holy grail algorithm.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

"However, I've seen (mainly in the last 5-10 years) that this late money is so accurate that it defies common sense. This is the reason that all of us on here are tempted to assign it to past posting. How else could that late money be so right? "

You brushed up against it pretty good right there, at the very least.

Why is it so hard to believe that smart people with really awesome tools and a fat-ass bankroll couldn't destroy this game at the windows...raking in a profit...plus a rebate?

I made a profit posting over 500 races at tracks all over the country, and I suck. You don't think someone 100x smarter than me with software 1,000,000 times better than I use, couldn't turn out way better results?

I might even guess that they are tip toeing around so as not to wreck the pools too much. Therefore spawning more public attention, like this thread.