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04-08-2018, 09:35 PM
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#46
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
Why do we need a ML???
Isn't it just a way to get you to bet???
Or, in some cases, a way to mislead the public???
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Believe it or not, I use the M/L to quickly prescreen whether a race is playable or not. It's not the only factor I use of course, but I *DO* find it quite useful.
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04-08-2018, 09:36 PM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Franco Santiago
I love your solution. I use something very similar and I agree with you (not that it matters what *I* think).
Unfortunately, for the majority, the real problem is not the tote. It is their core belief that that the game is tainted, rigged against them, unbeatable, or otherwise crooked. This limiting belief has already doomed them and no amount of "coaching" or teaching them (as you have done above) is going to help. In fact, to them, the game will always be just crooked enough to make them lose. Sad, but true.
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You don't necessarily have to be a losing player in order to believe that the game is "tainted", or "otherwise crooked".
__________________
Live to play another day.
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04-08-2018, 09:52 PM
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#48
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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Let's all be losing players . . .
I don't think so!
Somebody has to win after all.
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04-08-2018, 10:12 PM
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#49
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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PA,
Not sure how you can depend on it for anything.
I've personally spoken to more than one ML maker.
They said they spend about five minutes per race making a line. Sometimes less!
How can that be taking everything into account from the thousands of bits of information on each horse???
One guy said he purposely puts odds far lower on longshots so as to not "embarrass" the connections.
It's a disservice to the betting public imo.
Sometimes it's even done by someone filling in for somebody who took the day off. Who knows who it is on those days. The identity of the line maker isn't even given to us.
A well written computer program could do a far better job of evaluation and would be superior imo and be far more reliable.
Just another example of how little tracks care about us. Kind of expected.
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04-08-2018, 10:15 PM
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#50
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
PA,
Not sure how you can depend on it for anything.
I've personally spoken to more than one ML maker.
They said they spend about five minutes per race making a line. Sometimes less!
How can that be taking everything into account from the thousands of bits of information on each horse???
One guy said he purposely puts odds far lower on longshots so as to not "embarrass" the connections.
It's a disservice to the betting public imo.
Sometimes it's even done by someone filling in for somebody who took the day off. Who knows who it is on those days. The identity of the line maker isn't even given to us.
A well written computer program could do a far better job of evaluation and would be superior imo and be far more reliable.
Just another example of how little tracks care about us. Kind of expected.
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I'm sure everything you write happens now and again at various tracks here and there...despite that, I still personally find it useful.
As for computer lines, I think Harness racing has dabbled in those, and of course, there was a backlash...nobody is happy with anything.
So you make do.
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04-08-2018, 11:05 PM
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#51
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,909
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Between this thread and threads like it, plus what CJ just posted about the SA Pick 6...
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04-08-2018, 11:07 PM
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#52
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye
Let's all be losing players . . .
I don't think so!
Somebody has to win after all.
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They’re called tracks and trainers
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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04-08-2018, 11:10 PM
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#53
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
They’re called tracks and trainers
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I'd include Jockeys.
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04-08-2018, 11:11 PM
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#54
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
I'd include Jockeys.
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I don't begrudge those guys a cent.
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04-08-2018, 11:13 PM
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#55
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I don't begrudge those guys a cent.
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Gotta agree with that, after all is said and done.....tough tough life
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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04-09-2018, 01:09 PM
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#56
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,468
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The whole post is good, but I really want to focus on this part. I'll pick on Gulfstream but this really could apply to lots of tracks, particularly those with Trakus.
- There are timing errors galore.
- You don't know the real distance of the turf races including run up
- You don't know the time of the entire race
- The fractions are totally skewed due to run up, especially when changing it for the same distance on the same day
Does anyone really think that not only do the CRW teams have better information, but that it isn't being provided to them when possible?
There is so much more we don't know that people could buy and exploit against the general public. I could have made this list three times longer easily. Feel free to add to it.
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Exactly!
What other reason would Trkus be prevented from providing certain times.
YOU better be careful, CJ....no telling who you piss off by proving good figures!
However, I STILL say past posting is going on regularly.
No one will ever convince me. As you point, track sod not know how to time, so what good is their telling us when a pool closed?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-09-2018, 01:17 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Believe it or not, I use the M/L to quickly prescreen whether a race is playable or not. It's not the only factor I use of course, but I *DO* find it quite useful.
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Personally I almost never look at morning lines. I doubt that line makers use their ML when making a wager... think about that
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04-09-2018, 01:18 PM
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#58
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by storyline
Personally I almost never look at morning lines. I doubt that line makers use their ML when making a wager... think about that
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I don't use the ML when making a wager either.
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04-09-2018, 01:23 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Exactly!
What other reason would Trkus be prevented from providing certain times.
YOU better be careful, CJ....no telling who you piss off by proving good figures!
However, I STILL say past posting is going on regularly.
No one will ever convince me. As you point, track sod not know how to time, so what good is their telling us when a pool closed?
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I believe this to be true as well
I'll go a step further and say that others are getting accurate running times, while the betting public often gets hand-timed races.
Past posting and bad timing of races have been going on imo for years.
Are whales buying influence, if I had to bet..........
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04-09-2018, 04:41 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,230
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
PA,
I know you are steamed. Welcome to the club.
Seriously, the answer is not that complicated but it does take a change in thinking.
What I have done... and many of my users have done... is to simply stop using the tote altogether. Almost 4 years since I stopped.
Amazingly, my handicapping life is actually BETTER.
What we do is create what I used to call "phony odds." Now we call them "object odds" or simply "aML," which stands for "artificial Morning Line."
It is based upon the idea that we can predict How the Public USUALLY bets the money on a horse like this one.
The driving force is what we call a handicapping object. That is nothing but 5 or 6 factors weighted together, and then normalized to 100%. The individual horse percentages become the "phony pool."
All the factors should be "high-level" factors. Just think in terms of factors that have high hit rates because they will always correlate with the tote board.
The primary factor is almost always Morning Line. Others include factors like BRIS Prime Power or HDW's Projected Speed Rating. Think of which factors you might add beyond that.
BTW, I actually use the ranks in these factors as opposed to raw ratings.
Not only is there great freedom in this, but there is a bit of logic as well, in the sense that horses SHOULD be bet based upon HOW THE LOOK (in terms of important factors).
Now, races with FTS and foreign horses present a problem. Even HSH does not handle that well. Much easier to overcome in a spreadsheet.
BTW, do not think for a minute that this approach is going to do a near-perfect job. There is no such thing. Not even the whales, who have the benefit of not only a much more complex approach than a 5-factor object and also tote board patterns.
But trust me when I say that it really doesn't matter. If you implement this you will find that you are no longer hitting a moving target.
Will you bet a horse expecting to get 6/1 and wind up at 5/2? Absolutely. You will also see 12/1 pay 4/5. Why? Because the horse really shouldn't have been 4/5 based upon how good he looked.
In fact, I actually built a seminar called The Renegade Handicapper around this concept:
1. Create the Phony Odds.
2. Pick Contenders based upon your handicapping factors.
3. Create probabilities from the REAL ODDS.
4. Penalize the Non-Contenders' probabilities hugely and make new probabilities.
5. Bet into the Phony Odds with your Probabilities. If there is sufficient interest, I will arrange a free seminar to teach people how to do this. One MUST expect that it will take some work.
Dave
PS: I've not talked about it in a long time but I am really within 6 weeks or so of releasing the beta version of my new SMALL DATA software. That software will have a BUNCH of these aML objects built in.
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I agree with this philosophy.
I liked a horse in the 9th at Tampa Friday. 3-1 ML. I'll take 3-1 all day, but I figured everyone would like it and thought it would be bet down too much. It won and paid $5.40 without my money on it.
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