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Old 04-24-2018, 02:38 PM   #46
Blenheim
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Mendelssohn does not have to wire this field to win. Watch the replay of the BC Turf. Although he does have the ability to go wire to wire if that’s how the race sets up.
Mr. LoneF,

With all due respect, how many times has an overseas shipper won the Kentucky Derby?
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Old 04-24-2018, 02:39 PM   #47
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November 9th

Still dont beat my 200-1 on Bolt on Sept 6th and again at 40-1 on October 2nd

Also picked up Audible 80-1 January 30th


offshore futures bets are fantastic, really changes the way u bet derby day. flexibility to the max
You can get incredible odds from offshore books but don’t hold your breath on them paying you out lol
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Old 04-24-2018, 02:44 PM   #48
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Mr. LoneF,

With all due respect, how many times has an overseas shipper won the Kentucky Derby?
About as many times as a horse has won after never racing as a two year old.

How many times has a overseas shipper ever came over with a Breeders Cup win under their belt and the distinction of being the highest priced yearling of the group ?
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Old 04-24-2018, 02:54 PM   #49
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Mendelssohn does not have to wire this field to win. Watch the replay of the BC Turf. Although he does have the ability to go wire to wire if that’s how the race sets up.
It's a bit dubious to compare a horse's turf races to its dirt races. Never mind the different way each type of race is typically conducted, but also the individual horse's themselves might display different preferred running styles.

For example, in 1989, one Derby prospect named Hawkster (the broodmare sire of Afleet Alex) was an off-the-pace one run closer type. He ran along for 5th in all 3 Triple Crown races while never making a threat to the Sunday Silence-Easy Goer show up front.

In the summer, Hawkster switched to the turf at Del Mar and was a complete run-off. He won his first 4 turf starts wire-to-wire, culminating in a world-record effort in the Oak Tree Invitational where he opened up something like 10 lengths on the field right out of the gate and kept on going.

That aside, I think you have to factor Coolmore's continued failure in this race and NA dirt races in general. They gunned U S Navy Flag to the lead in the BC Juvenile and tried to do likewise with Churchill in the Classic (he got smashed into submission between horses heading to the first turn).

I don't think they want to see if Mendelssohn can take dirt in the face for 7f and still be willing to launch a bid to the lead. They already know he has front running speed on dirt and that he breaks sharply from the gate. I think he'll send immediately from the gate.

Note Aidan O'Brien's telling quote before the UAE Derby:

"Scat Daddy is obviously an influence for speed, but American racing is very different and the most important thing of all is speed. You just hope for stamina after that, but if you don't have pace it's a waste of time.”
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Old 04-24-2018, 03:02 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by LoneF View Post
About as many times as a horse has won after never racing as a two year old.

How many times has a overseas shipper ever came over with a Breeders Cup win under their belt and the distinction of being the highest priced yearling of the group ?
With all due respect, I downloaded the following information from the DRF - Kentucky Derby 2016: Inside The Numbers. I don't think its 100% correct as the record shows Omar Khayyam shipped in and won it back in 1917. Maybe your research can help . . .

Canonero II in 1971 remains the only horse to win Kentucky Derby as a foreign shipper, although he did run twice at Del Mar as a juvenile. Since 1991, 19 horses ran in the Derby after competing overseas in their previous start; the best finish of any of them was fifth place by Master of Hounds in 2011, and the most notable flop was the eighth-place finish by Arazi in 1992 as the 4-5 favorite.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...inside-numbers
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Old 04-24-2018, 03:13 PM   #51
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How many times has a overseas shipper ever came over with a Breeders Cup win under their belt and the distinction of being the highest priced yearling of the group ?
Arazi and Johannesburg came over with wins in the BC Juvenile on dirt. Both were fairly expensive weanlings.

Arazi uncorked his trademark full field sweep, but either stamina, foundation, or soundness issues (or a combination thereof) saw him hit a brick wall at the 1/8th pole. There was also a slow pace in that race.

Johannesburg was part of a merry-go-round Derby in which I think only Medaglia D'Oro, failed by a poor start, was actually able to pass a horse in the stretch. I think most horses finished in the same position they started in. Johannesburg started from the dreaded rail, saved ground in 8th and stayed there. He had a single 7f prep on the grass in Ireland, where he was tagged at the wire by the older filly Rebelline, who later won Group 1 races and was the highweight between 7f-11f in Ireland for the distaff division in Ireland. Johannesburg was also without his regular rider Mick Kinane, who I think was suspended.
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Old 04-24-2018, 06:10 PM   #52
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Mr. LoneF,

With all due respect, how many times has an overseas shipper won the Kentucky Derby?
i'm sorry. i can't resist. if by chance mendy runs big i can always use tis when we talk about the wood horses. either way, it's not likely to go away anytime soon. unless we get a mendy/rossi number.


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Old 04-24-2018, 09:23 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
It's a bit dubious to compare a horse's turf races to its dirt races. Never mind the different way each type of race is typically conducted, but also the individual horse's themselves might display different preferred running styles.

For example, in 1989, one Derby prospect named Hawkster (the broodmare sire of Afleet Alex) was an off-the-pace one run closer type. He ran along for 5th in all 3 Triple Crown races while never making a threat to the Sunday Silence-Easy Goer show up front.

In the summer, Hawkster switched to the turf at Del Mar and was a complete run-off. He won his first 4 turf starts wire-to-wire, culminating in a world-record effort in the Oak Tree Invitational where he opened up something like 10 lengths on the field right out of the gate and kept on going.

That aside, I think you have to factor Coolmore's continued failure in this race and NA dirt races in general. They gunned U S Navy Flag to the lead in the BC Juvenile and tried to do likewise with Churchill in the Classic (he got smashed into submission between horses heading to the first turn).

I don't think they want to see if Mendelssohn can take dirt in the face for 7f and still be willing to launch a bid to the lead. They already know he has front running speed on dirt and that he breaks sharply from the gate. I think he'll send immediately from the gate.

Note Aidan O'Brien's telling quote before the UAE Derby:

"Scat Daddy is obviously an influence for speed, but American racing is very different and the most important thing of all is speed. You just hope for stamina after that, but if you don't have pace it's a waste of time.”
Had to check out Hawkster for myself

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Old 04-24-2018, 10:09 PM   #54
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Had to check out Hawkster for myself
Hawkster passed on supplementing to the BC and ran in the Japan Cup instead, where he tasted defeat for the first time on turf.

In that race he surprisingly had to concede the early lead to Ibn Bey, who was a frontrunner in Europe but clearly had enough pace to handle American-type early speed. Hawkster collared him at the head of the stretch but both were quickly swallowed up despite fighting on to the wire.

Hawkster actually never won another race. When he returned home his connections decided to give him another go on the dirt. When he finally went back to the grass he ran into champion Steinlen and BC Turf hero Prized. Bad ankles cut his 4yo season and career short.

Coincidentally, since we're speaking about Mendelssohn, Japan Cup pace rival Ibn Bey went back to Europe and won a few Group 1s as a 6yo, then went to Belmont Park for a dirt experiment in the BC Classic. He chased a blazing pace set by Thirty Six Red among others, hung tough into the stretch and wrested the lead from the latter inside the 1/16th pole only to give way a stride or two later to the streaking Unbridled.

Ibn Bey, by the European great Mill Reef, had little dirt pedigree to speak of, but clearly his early speed was a huge asset in making the transition to dirt.
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Old 04-25-2018, 01:53 AM   #55
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That aside, I think you have to factor Coolmore's continued failure in this race and NA dirt races in general.
Mendolssohn isn't really a turf horse. He was bred for dirt.

So for me it wasn't so much that he was able to handle dirt and won by 18 lengths.....it was that he has proved that he can run on synth and turf as well. You have to think a horse like this can run on anything. He certainly has enough tactical speed to run ITM here.....I believe his dirt breeding "kicked in" the same way people describe the light bulb going on for other horses.
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Old 04-25-2018, 03:03 AM   #56
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Mendolssohn isn't really a turf horse. He was bred for dirt.
Scat Daddy, in both hemispheres, has been predominately a turf sire.

He has sired something like 45 Grade or Group 1 winners. Only 2 of those won Grade 1s on the dirt in North America: Nickname, who won the Frizette at 2 and never won again, and Justify, who of course will be lining up against Mendelssohn in the KY Derby.
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Old 04-25-2018, 06:35 AM   #57
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Scat Daddy, in both hemispheres, has been predominately a turf sire.

He has sired something like 45 Grade or Group 1 winners. Only 2 of those won Grade 1s on the dirt in North America: Nickname, who won the Frizette at 2 and never won again, and Justify, who of course will be lining up against Mendelssohn in the KY Derby.
Well maybe Justify and Mendelssohn will add to Scat Daddy's dirt accomplishments as a sire. He's already got some nice ones like Tu Brutus who could run at classic distances.

I wonder if Obrien took some notes from Carl Nafzger, who used the synthetic track at Keenland as part of Street Sense's unconventional prep for the Derby, as well as his BC Juvie win. Likewise, Hard Spun. I remember those trainers saying it imparts a different level of fitness.
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Old 04-26-2018, 06:17 AM   #58
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Mendelssohn does not have to wire this field to win. Watch the replay of the BC Turf. Although he does have the ability to go wire to wire if that’s how the race sets up.

Mendelssohn has never beaten a Grade One winner. He faces 8 in this race.
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Old 04-26-2018, 06:42 PM   #59
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[QUOTE=boys at tosconova;2307245 unless we get a mendy/rossi number.

that wouldn't bother me at all
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