Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Have a look at the terrific race from 1993 called the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational Stakes run at Belmont Park on Long Island, not far from New York City at the link below. (scroll ahead to 8:50 for the start of the race) The winning horse was trained by Andre Fabre. Its name was Apple Tree. You might be familiar with the trainer and the horse.
The pace was dawdling for a 12 furlong grass race and the final time was 2:28. (For comparison, Secretariat ran 12 furlongs on the dirt in 2:24. Secretariat also ran 12 furlongs on turf in 2:24 and 4/5.)
With such a slow pace and final time how do you make an accurate speed rating for a race like the Turf Invitational? The horse on the lead in this race should have been able to win after setting such a slow pace. (For example, Buck's Boy set a slow pace when he won at 12 furlongs on grass in the 1998 Breeders Cup Classic.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJUs7eDgH-0&t=531s |
let me work backwards!
my opinion is that you can't, so why bother?
you can though hypothesize on how fast they COULD have run the race.
what about if you run a regression of all the expecteds, less the actuals as one variable, and the other the pace percent of the races, where 100% is best way to pace?
either side of that is either too fast or too slow depending on the %.
i already know that the correlation will be very very high.
it still does not translate to nags that finished close in the slow pace being able to do the same in a fast or evenly paced race.
but it could be one factor in a model.
but i would never dream of projecting myself, so the speed would stay what it was, regardless of how fast or slow it was paced.
i would just be aware of it.
if my pace was maybe .97 for a particular point of the race, and the speeds were slow, then i know why, and that's enough for me.
i don't believe in changing stuff to suit expectation.
that some do, is neither here nor there, but the fact is they are no longer speeds, they are something else.
they may work fine for those that do, but they are still not speed figures as such.
one number to sum up a race may well work for some, but not for me.
times are just one part of the jigsaw puzzle that is racing. so that there are many other things that would need to be accounted for.
