Stock Market Prediction

[geroge.burns99]

Profit takers are BACK!!!!

[BettinBilly]

They are indeed. I'm more of an "Investor" than a "Trader" in this volatile market.

SWMBO was watching Fox Business (I believe Kudlow) yesterday and she said they were discussing a safe harbor from the market by moving investments to a T-Bill hat is now 10 percent? I was not aware of anything even close to this rate.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

They are indeed. I'm more of an "Investor" than a "Trader" in this volatile market.

SWMBO was watching Fox Business (I believe Kudlow) yesterday and she said they were discussing a safe harbor from the market by moving investments to a T-Bill hat is now 10 percent? I was not aware of anything even close to this rate.

They have $10,000 limit on them and there is some kind of forfeit of interest if you cash them in before 3 years I think.


Now if you wanted to throw some money into a closed end bond fund, well there is no limit on those, they are completely nose dived and are paying yields not seen in a long time.


BHK
NAD
NBB
PTY
MHD


But you didn't hear that from me

[BettinBilly]

Thanks.

I just asked her again, and they were talking about "I-Bonds" (now the rate makes sense to me), that I believe are 9.6 percent after the first six months, 7.1 percent to lock in April now, if I recall correctly.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Profit takers are BACK!!!!

the signals from this market are as clear can be. the tech stocks are down 20% off the top. that means the path to least resistance is downtown.. some day that will change and you will bet the signal. for now, just go short.

[MikeH]

You can get another $5,000 in I Bonds if you overpay your taxes and ask to have $5k of it applied to I Bonds. It's been a while since I looked at them, but... I think...
1) You can't cash them out at all in the 1st year.
2) There' a 3 month interest loss if you cash in years 2-4.

But, a 3 month interest loss means 7% x 75% still means a 5 1/4% rate... far better than a CD right now...

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by MikeH

You can get another $5,000 in I Bonds if you overpay your taxes and ask to have $5k of it applied to I Bonds. It's been a while since I looked at them, but... I think...
1) You can't cash them out at all in the 1st year.
2) There' a 3 month interest loss if you cash in years 2-4.

But, a 3 month interest loss means 7% x 75% still means a 5 1/4% rate... far better than a CD right now...

[PaceAdvantage]

oh my...

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

The downward movement is just getting started. The market is looking pretty spooked, and the fed hasn't actually raised anything yet.


Imagine what is going to happen when they raise 50 or 75 basis points and inflation doesn't stop. So they float the idea of increasing the pace of rate hikes.



I originally thought oil would top out at 100, it's going to 120 by summer. Write it down.

From 1-19-2022

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Household spending is going to dry up, right at the time the stupid shits at the Fed have backed themselves into raising rates.


Oh yeah and one of Russia/ China is going to get Froggy.


Good times

From 1-20-2022

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

The streaming subscriber game is getting way over saturated. The projections in that industry have been comical for a while. Disney has been cratering for a while because the stock got way over it's ski's on pipe dream growth numbers for Disney+

Netflix has gone from 700.99 to 191.95

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

The Fed sat on their hands last year and allowed the party to keep going.



2022 will be time to pay the piper. I agree that the high for the year is already in. This market will be down at least 20% and possibly 30% by July.

From 1-21-2022, Damn who is this guy?

[PaceAdvantage]

You're like the second coming of that guy who said right when Trump was elected, that this was the buying opportunity of a generation (he was right).

Now we have you for the downside.

Who needs anyone else?

[PaceAdvantage]

Black Monday coming up?

All signs point to yes...if they break the low back in February?

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

I’ll keep selling. Piles of cash look pretty good right now.

The January “dip” is just the beginning

2-1-2022

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You're like the second coming of that guy who said right when Trump was elected, that this was the buying opportunity of a generation (he was right).

Now we have you for the downside.

Who needs anyone else?

LOL, I guess if we get it right on which guy to listen to when we will do pretty good? But that's the hard part.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

You know where I'm at. I've been liquidating on the bounces.


I have cash and at some point in 2022 shit will get ugly, very ugly. I can wait all year baby.


Facebook is #7 in the S&P and we see how well it holds up to a bad earnings report. Amazon is #3 and comes tomorrow. When Q1 2022 Earnings come in 90 days is when I truly suspect we will see some pain.

2-2-2022