A Note About Mendelssohn That Deserves Its Own Thread

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I spend about a week learning about all the horses in this race. I enjoy "the puzzle". After that part is over, I hardly even care to make a wager. I just enjoy the analyzing part and mostly reading other's perceptions....often very different from what I see, but that is always instructive.

It's different with horses like Gun Runner, who I've watched develop over the years and become a champ. I usually don't get emotionally invested in horses who don't run til at least 5 years old.....and the trainers who race them like that....patiently and lovingly.

In the Derby I try to make a wager that qualifies as "bet a little, win a lot". It's the one time I get a little crazy with my choices, since it's a chaos race.

Spot on my friend. Gun Runner was my Derby horse from Fairgrounds on and the ride to the wire in the Pegasus was spectacular. He was my guy.

Each year I find a new one to latch on to. Luckily this year I landed on Good Magic when he saved my whole BC Saturday. I will follow him til retirement.

For instance, I'm rooting for Hence (my 2017 pick) tomorrow to pull the upset in the Alysheba. And I pull for Mubtaahij every race he runs..my pick to beat American Pharoah.

I play the races every weekend, but I stay loyal to my Derby picks. Just another part of this wonderful game.

Go Good Magic!

[GMB@BP]

Has Rayya finished yet?

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Has Rayya finished yet?

yes, at 6:32 pm.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jay68802

yes, at 6:32 pm.

well she should have been very comfortable,was an inside speed track.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

well she should have been very comfortable,was an inside speed track.

Blew by the maintenance crew in the final quarter.

[098poi]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Blew by the maintenance crew in the final quarter.

I wish all horses well but this is funny!!

[dballard125]

He won’t be in my Top 3 but wish everyone good luck tomorrow.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by dballard125

He won’t be in my Top 3 but wish everyone good luck tomorrow.

[GMB@BP]

Another horse we can get a gauge on for Mendelssohn runs in the Pat Day, Seahenge, his stablemate and who has been a few lengths off him in a couple races. He got buried as well in that Dubai dirt race, could not make the lead and it was Kaput with the gold rail.

[CincyHorseplayer]

My early love and the Thorograph -4 is killing me about this horse!

Really considering main tickets to Bolt, Audible, and Vino. It will be dogshit payoffs anyway elsewhere unless a bomber. Today was decent but sterile payoffs. Only the yearlings think all Derby payoffs are golden.

[depalma113]

I have nothing against Mendelssohn at all. I think he is a decent horse who can win against the right field. I don't believe this is the right field though.

Last year he was their BC Juvenile dirt horse and than at the last minute they decided it was better to put him on the turf because he had been a disappointment up until that point. He needed a grade one win and they thought the best chance was in the BC Juvenile Turf. They were not willing to face American dirt horses with an American dirt pedigree and that is what bothers me about this horse. The connections had no faith in him last fall.

Next he shows up in Dubai and runs away from the field. Suddenly he's a monster on dirt without any perspective at all. Some of the best handicappers in the business are ignoring the bias and they are ignoring the horses that ran behind him.

The Beyer guys give him a 106. That screams Sinister Minister.

One trick I learned about big Beyers earned in a blowout win, on a speed favoring track, is that if you cut the lengths of win in half and subtract it from the Beyer, you get a truer number. That puts Mendelssohn at a 97. A 97 is average with this bunch.

At 25-1, I'm all in on this horse, at 5-1 I don't want average.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by depalma113

I have nothing against Mendelssohn at all. I think he is a decent horse who can win against the right field. I don't believe this is the right field though.

Last year he was their BC Juvenile dirt horse and than at the last minute they decided it was better to put him on the turf because he had been a disappointment up until that point. He needed a grade one win and they thought the best chance was in the BC Juvenile Turf. They were not willing to face American dirt horses with an American dirt pedigree and that is what bothers me about this horse. The connections had no faith in him last fall.

Next he shows up in Dubai and runs away from the field. Suddenly he's a monster on dirt without any perspective at all. Some of the best handicappers in the business are ignoring the bias and they are ignoring the horses that ran behind him.

The Beyer guys give him a 106. That screams Sinister Minister.

One trick I learned about big Beyers earned in a blowout win, on a speed favoring track, is that if you cut the lengths of win in half and subtract it from the Beyer, you get a truer number. That puts Mendelssohn at a 97. A 97 is average with this bunch.

At 25-1, I'm all in on this horse, at 5-1 I don't want average.

Very well said Depalma. There is so much beastly about this horse IMO. But so much that reeks of falsehood.

[Afleet]

If I owned Mendelssohn I would scratch. If I owned any horse in any of the remaining races I would scratch

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by depalma113

I have nothing against Mendelssohn at all. I think he is a decent horse who can win against the right field. I don't believe this is the right field though.

Last year he was their BC Juvenile dirt horse and than at the last minute they decided it was better to put him on the turf because he had been a disappointment up until that point. He needed a grade one win and they thought the best chance was in the BC Juvenile Turf. They were not willing to face American dirt horses with an American dirt pedigree and that is what bothers me about this horse. The connections had no faith in him last fall.

Next he shows up in Dubai and runs away from the field. Suddenly he's a monster on dirt without any perspective at all. Some of the best handicappers in the business are ignoring the bias and they are ignoring the horses that ran behind him.

The Beyer guys give him a 106. That screams Sinister Minister.

One trick I learned about big Beyers earned in a blowout win, on a speed favoring track, is that if you cut the lengths of win in half and subtract it from the Beyer, you get a truer number. That puts Mendelssohn at a 97. A 97 is average with this bunch.

At 25-1, I'm all in on this horse, at 5-1 I don't want average.

I think Mendelssohn ran great! It took the entire field to beat him!