*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[lefty359]

Floyd, I don't like to box more than 2 in an exacta. If I have 3 I like to key 1 to other 2. Any thoughts on picking a key horse from he 3?

[djser]

Originally Posted by Floyd

Here's a useful method if you have both "Platinum" and "Best~5."
Do your scratches using headhawg's program.
Run "Best~5 Consensus" (Be sure to scratch any scratched horse manually)
Run Platinum's "Comp Report." (Be sure to scratch any scratched horse manually)
Compare the two, marking every horse that appears on BOTH the "Comp Report" and "Consensus."
Bet any non-maiden race that has two or more horses in common, with Morning Line odds no lower than 3/1 on any of the three horses, as an exacta box.
$$$PROFIT$$$

You'll want to test this on various tracks to see where it works for you, of course. I'm showing good luck with this method at Turfway Park, Turf Paradise, Will Rogers Downs and Sunland.

Above all, have fun!

headhawg's program??? What program is that?

And why scratch with this program, when you can scratch inside the Best-5 and Platinum programs?

[dansan]

So in a 12 horse field you box 2 horses

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by djser

headhawg's program??? What program is that?

And why scratch with this program, when you can scratch inside the Best-5 and Platinum programs?

In my versions of Best 5 or Exotic Bets you can't unscratch a horse if you make a mistake; in your's maybe you can. So if you use more than one of NCG's programs (which you need for Floyd's method) you don't have to scratch multiple times -- the scratched horses would already deleted from the data file. You don't have to use HDST; you can just do what you've been doing. I provided the program as a time-saving tool.

[Floyd]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Floyd, I don't like to box more than 2 in an exacta. If I have 3 I like to key 1 to other 2. Any thoughts on picking a key horse from he 3?

I'm still working on that. Seems like every time I key a horse another one beats it! I'm keeping careful records, but I think I'm outsmarting myself most of the time on this stuff. Every time I hit on a profitable method it works great, until it doesn't. For about 8 months I was on a roll with $.50 pick threes, picking the right races to play and getting some nice hits. Then it just dried up. Over time the payouts decreased to the point where I'd still maintain my hit rate but consistently lose money.
Now it's exactas. Minimal actual handicapping, fairly consistent profitability over time, but I know it's going to change and I'll have to find another angle.
But hey, if it was just "Push a couple buttons and cash in" all the time it wouldn't be near as much fun.

[Floyd]

Originally Posted by dansan

So in a 12 horse field you box 2 horses

No, I'm boxing the 3 horses that Best~5 picks, as long as there are are 2 of them also on the Platinum list. Many times (I'm working on the exact percentages) the horse thats on Best~5 but NOT on Platinum will win it. I'm trying to keep it simple since I'm still working full time and my wife likes it when I cook dinner!
Try it on paper for a few races at your favorite track and see if it works for you.
There are literally hundreds of ways to use these programs, this is just one I've found that works for me, for now. I've got some others in the works that I'll share after testing.

[reckless]

Would anyone know if I could install and run Greg's Platinum Plus and/or Pace-View, I own both programs, via Virtual Box??

My two modern computers run on the Linux operating system, Mint and Linux Lite, no Windows.

Thanks in advance.

[lefty359]

Originally Posted by Floyd

I'm still working on that. Seems like every time I key a horse another one beats it! I'm keeping careful records, but I think I'm outsmarting myself most of the time on this stuff. Every time I hit on a profitable method it works great, until it doesn't. For about 8 months I was on a roll with $.50 pick threes, picking the right races to play and getting some nice hits. Then it just dried up. Over time the payouts decreased to the point where I'd still maintain my hit rate but consistently lose money.
Now it's exactas. Minimal actual handicapping, fairly consistent profitability over time, but I know it's going to change and I'll have to find another angle.
But hey, if it was just "Push a couple buttons and cash in" all the time it wouldn't be near as much fun.

I sure know that feeling!!

[Floyd]

Was anybody playing Oaklawn with me yesterday?

Best~5 Consensus was ON FIRE!

Picked the winner in every race.
Races 1,2,5,6,8 and 9 were the #1 picks.
Race 3 was the #2 pick.
Race 4 & 7 were the #3 picks.

[Floyd]

Here's the Best~5 Consensus for Oaklawn today:

1-, ,

2-, ,

3-, ,

4-, ,

5-, ,

6-, ,

7-, ,

8-, ,

9-, ,

Good luck!

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Floyd

Here's the Best~5 Consensus for Oaklawn today:

1-, ,

2-, ,

3-, ,

4-, ,

5-, ,

6-, ,

7-, ,

8-, ,

9-, ,

Good luck!

Floyd, what is the success rate for #1 picks, vs. #2 and #3 picks? Greg certainly puts out a reasonably priced software, and people can custom design it any way that suits their style of play.

[green80]

Originally Posted by Floyd

Was anybody playing Oaklawn with me yesterday?

Best~5 Consensus was ON FIRE!

Picked the winner in every race.
Races 1,2,5,6,8 and 9 were the #1 picks.
Race 3 was the #2 pick
Race 4 & 7 were the #3 picks.

While impressive, you simply cannot play 3 in every race and come out ahead for very long. While the #1 pick did well yesterday, how did it do longer term.? You have to have a way to filter even the top pick, and bet it only when it meets other factors.

I tried just betting (all )the #1 picks last year at several tracks and it was not profitable after usually a couple of days or weeks. I still only bet the #1 pick but apply a little handicapping and usually wind up with only 2 or 3 per card worth a bet. This way it has been profitable.

[lefty359]

Yes, I would like to know you decide which of the 3 picks to bet? Greenie you told me I should get best 5. Now I think I shoulda listened.

[green80]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Yes, I would like to know you decide which of the 3 picks to bet? Greenie you told me I should get best 5. Now I think I shoulda listened.

I used to play it like this:

1st pick- play when >3/1

2nd pick- play when >6/1

3rd pick- play when>10/1
This makes easy playing with an ADW that lets you set the min odds @ x min to post. Just make your bets and forget it.

you can adjust the min odds a little, the idea is you have it when one of those big price horses are in the 3 consensus horses. As always, you just have to keep records to see what is working at your track. I had some wild bankroll swings playing this way. Caution: when the chalk is coming in a lot this won't work. For some reason this works better for the first few weeks of a meet.

[lefty359]

greenie, good info. thanks.