2020 US Presidential election odds

[JustRalph]

Unless Durham, Barr et al have a plan for Sept.-October, Trump is toast.

I suspect they do........have a plan

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Unless Durham, Barr et al have a plan for Sept.-October, Trump is toast.

I suspect they do........have a plan

Too inside baseball. American voters aren't going to care about some conspiratorial OR actual revelation from Durham or Barr, especially female voters. Trump has lost female voters in droves, men not so much.

But why the downtrodden view? Unemployment is just north of 13% now. With the re-opening of the economy, what if the rate falls to 8% prior to election day? That seems much more helpful than a "Obama spied on Trump in 2015/16" narrative. That's history. Over. No one cares, except diehard Trump supporters, and you don't need to win yourself over.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by davew

so sad, I will grieve for you and the rest of the announcers on television as they hold back tears

Current Betfair next president market

Biden 1.75
Trump 2.64

The market says I will celebrating.

Allan

[Saratoga_Mike]

Long time until election day.

[lamboguy]

currently the 2020 presidential election lines are now off the boards.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Long time until election day.

Damn...somebody REALLY woke you up recently...

You're EVERYWHERE in off-topic lately...

[lamboguy]

Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee announcement - Monday, August 17, 2020 8:00 PM
481 Dem VP nominee announced before 07/05 +1500
482 Dem VP nominee announced on another date -999999
483 Dem VP nominee announced: 07/05 - 07/11 +2000
484 Dem VP nominee announced on another date -6000
485 Dem VP nominee announced: 07/12 - 07/18 +1250
486 Dem VP nominee announced on another date -2750
487 Dem VP nominee announced: 07/19 - 07/25 +550
488 Dem VP nominee announced on another date -1050
489 Dem VP nominee announced: 07/26 - 08/01 +170
490 Dem VP nominee announced on another date -230
491 Dem VP nominee announced: 08/02 - 08/08 +260
492 Dem VP nominee announced on another date -380
493 Dem VP nominee announced: 08/09 - 08/15 +450
494 Dem VP nominee announced on another date -750
495 Dem VP nominee announced after 08/15 +875
496 Dem VP nominee announced on another date -1790
2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
111 Republican wins Presidential Election +125
112 Democrat wins Presidential Election -145
113 Republican wins Presidential Election +126
114 Field wins Presidential Election -146
115 Democrat wins Presidential Election -144
116 Field wins Presidential Election +124
117 Libertarian wins Presidential Election +48000
118 Field wins Presidential Election -96000
119 Green wins Presidential Election +60000
120 Field wins Presidential Election -120000
121 Republican/Democrat wins Election -60000
122 Libertarian/Green wins Election +20000
2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
131 Democrat nominee wins Popular Vote -550
132 Republican nominee wins Popular Vote +425
133 Biden wins Elections & Popular Vote -110
134 Any other result -130
135 Biden loses Elections & Popular Vote +525
136 Any other result -975
137 Biden wins Elections loses Popular Vote +1100
138 Any other result -2300
139 Biden loses Elections wins Popular Vote +160
140 Any other result -210
United States Congress - Majority Control of Senate - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
181 Democratic Senators in 117th Congress -160
182 Republican Senators in 117th Congress +120
United States Congress - Majority Control of The House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
183 DEM Representatives in 117th Congress -635
184 REP Representatives in 117th Congress +415
United States Congress - Control of Senate & House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
185 DEM control House REP control Senate +175
186 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -245
187 Democrats control House & Senate -125
188 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -115
189 Republican control House & Senate +420
190 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -650
191 REP control House DEM control Senate +5000
192 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -20000
2020 US Presidential Election - Democratic Party Sweep - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
193 DEMS win Election + Senate + Lower House +180
194 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -260
Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
451 Kamala Harris is Democratic VP Nominee -115
452 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -105
453 Val Demings is Democratic VP Nominee +400
454 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -500
455 Susan Rice is Democratic VP Nominee +500
456 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -700
457 E.Warren is Democratic VP Nominee +1050
458 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -1600
459 Stacey Abrams is Democratic VP Nominee +2200
460 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -4400
461 Tammy Duckworth is Democratic VP Nominee +3000
462 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -7000
465 G.Whitmer is Democratic VP Nominee +5000
466 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -12500
467 Hillary Clinton is Democratic VP Nominee +5000
468 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -12500
469 Tammy Baldwin is Democratic VP Nominee +6000
470 Field wins Democratic VP Nomination -15000
2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral Votes Winner - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
501 Republican Nominee wins Alabama -2600
502 Democratic Nominee wins Alabama +1200
503 Republican Nominee wins Alaska -975
504 Democratic Nominee wins Alaska +525
505 Republican Nominee wins Arizona +100
506 Democratic Nominee wins Arizona -140
507 Republican Nominee wins Arkansas -1700
508 Democratic Nominee wins Arkansas +800
509 Republican Nominee wins California +1800
510 Democratic Nominee wins California -5400
511 Republican Nominee wins Colorado +500
512 Democratic Nominee wins Colorado -900
513 Republican Nominee wins Connecticut +850
514 Democratic Nominee wins Connecticut -1750
515 Republican Nominee wins Delaware +1200
516 Democratic Nominee wins Delaware -2600
517 Republican Nominee wins Dist of Columbia +3000
518 Democratic Nominee wins Dist of Columbia -11000
519 Republican Nominee wins Florida -135
520 Democratic Nominee wins Florida -105
521 Republican Nominee wins Georgia -210
522 Democratic Nominee wins Georgia +160
523 Republican Nominee wins Hawaii +2000
524 Democratic Nominee wins Hawaii -6000
525 Republican Nominee wins Idaho -5400
526 Democratic Nominee wins Idaho +1800
527 Republican Nominee wins Illinois +1500
528 Democratic Nominee wins Illinois -4500
529 Republican Nominee wins Indiana -900
530 Democratic Nominee wins Indiana +500
531 Republican Nominee wins Iowa -210
532 Democratic Nominee wins Iowa +160
533 Republican Nominee wins Kansas -1200
534 Democratic Nominee wins Kansas +600
535 Republican Nominee wins Kentucky -1500
536 Democratic Nominee wins Kentucky +700
537 Republican Nominee wins Louisiana -2000
538 Democratic Nominee wins Louisiana +1000
539 Republican Nominee wins Maine +325
540 Democratic Nominee wins Maine -475
541 Republican Nominee wins Maryland +1100
542 Democratic Nominee wins Maryland -2300
543 Republican Nominee wins Massachusetts +1400
544 Democratic Nominee wins Massachusetts -3600
545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan +220
546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan -300
547 Republican Nominee wins Minnesota +250
548 Democratic Nominee wins Minnesota -350
549 Republican Nominee wins Mississippi -1500
550 Democratic Nominee wins Mississippi +700
551 Republican Nominee wins Missouri -750
552 Democratic Nominee wins Missouri +450
553 Republican Nominee wins Montana -900
554 Democratic Nominee wins Montana +500
555 Republican Nominee wins Nebraska -2300
556 Democratic Nominee wins Nebraska +1100
557 Republican Nominee wins Nevada +330
558 Democratic Nominee wins Nevada -490
559 Republican Nominee wins New Hampshire +250
560 Democratic Nominee wins New Hampshire -350
561 Republican Nominee wins New Jersey +700
562 Democratic Nominee wins New Jersey -1500
563 Republican Nominee wins New Mexico +550
564 Democratic Nominee wins New Mexico -1050
565 Republican Nominee wins New York +2000
566 Democratic Nominee wins New York -6000
567 Republican Nominee wins North Carolina -135
568 Democratic Nominee wins North Carolina -105
569 Republican Nominee wins North Dakota -2600
570 Democratic Nominee wins North Dakota +1200
571 Republican Nominee wins Ohio -170
572 Democratic Nominee wins Ohio +130
573 Republican Nominee wins Oklahoma -2600
574 Democratic Nominee wins Oklahoma +1200
575 Republican Nominee wins Oregon +900
576 Democratic Nominee wins Oregon -1850
577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania +170
578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania -230
579 Republican Nominee wins Rhode Island +950
580 Democratic Nominee wins Rhode Island -1950
581 Republican Nominee wins South Carolina -900
582 Democratic Nominee wins South Carolina +500
583 Republican Nominee wins South Dakota -1850
584 Democratic Nominee wins South Dakota +900
585 Republican Nominee wins Tennessee -1500
586 Democratic Nominee wins Tennessee +700
587 Republican Nominee wins Texas -350
588 Democratic Nominee wins Texas +250
589 Republican Nominee wins Utah -975
590 Democratic Nominee wins Utah +525
591 Republican Nominee wins Vermont +1500
592 Democratic Nominee wins Vermont -4500
593 Republican Nominee wins Virginia +500
594 Democratic Nominee wins Virginia -900
595 Republican Nominee wins Washington +1150
596 Democratic Nominee wins Washington -2450
597 Republican Nominee wins West Virginia -2600
598 Democratic Nominee wins West Virginia +1200
599 Republican Nominee wins Wisconsin +140
600 Democratic Nominee wins Wisconsin -180
601 Republican Nominee wins Wyoming -3600
602 Democratic Nominee wins Wyoming +1400
2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
101 Joe Biden wins Presidential Election -145
102 Donald Trump wins Presidential Election +125
2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral College Winning Margin - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
201 Trump wins by 280+ electoral votes +1100
202 Any other result -2300
203 Trump wins by 210-279 electoral votes +3500
204 Any other result -13500
205 Trump wins by 150-209 electoral votes +2500
206 Any other result -7500
207 Trump wins by 100-149 electoral votes +1500
208 Any other result -4500
209 Trump wins by 60-99 electoral votes +1000
210 Any other result -2000
211 Trump wins by 30-59 electoral votes +1100
212 Any other result -2300
213 Trump wins by 10-29 electoral votes +1400
214 Any other result -3600
215 Trump wins by 1-9 electoral votes +1600
216 Any other result -4800
217 Electoral College tied 269-269 +3300
218 Electoral College not tied 269-269 -12100
219 J.Biden wins by 280+ electoral votes +750
220 Any other result -1580
221 J.Biden wins by 210-279 electoral votes +650
222 Any other result -1350
223 J.Biden wins by 150-209 electoral votes +650
224 Any other result -1350
225 J.Biden wins by 100-149 electoral votes +350
226 Any other result -530
227 J.Biden wins by 60-99 electoral votes +600
228 Any other result -1200
229 J.Biden wins by 30-59 electoral votes +1000
230 Any other result -2000
231 J.Biden wins by 10-29 electoral votes +1375
232 Any other result -3425
233 J.Biden wins by 1-9 electoral votes +1500
234 Any other result -4500
2020 US Presidential Election - Popular Vote Winning Margin - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
251 Trump wins popular vote by 10.5% or more +3800
252 Any other result -14600
253 Trump wins popular vote by 9% - 10.49% +3500
254 Any other result -13500
255 Trump wins popular vote by 7.5% - 8.99% +3500
256 Any other result -13500
257 Trump wins popular vote by 6% - 7.49% +3300
258 Any other result -12100
259 Trump wins popular vote by 4.5% - 5.99% +3000
260 Any other result -11000
261 Trump wins popular vote by 3% - 4.49% +2500
262 Any other result -7500
263 Trump wins popular vote by 1.5% - 2.99% +1200
264 Any other result -2600
265 Trump wins pop vote by less than 1.49% +925
266 Any other result -1875
267 Biden wins popular vote by 10.5% or more +525
268 Any other result -975
269 Biden wins popular vote by 9% - 10.49% +1200
270 Any other result -2600
271 Biden wins popular vote by 7.5% - 8.99% +650
272 Any other result -1350
273 Biden wins popular vote by 6.00% - 7.49% +410
274 Any other result -620
275 Biden wins popular vote by 4.5% - 5.99% +440
276 Any other result -720
277 Biden wins popular vote by 3% - 4.49% +500
278 Any other result -900
279 Biden wins popular vote by 1.5% - 2.99% +850
280 Any other result -1750
281 Biden wins pop vote by less than 1.49% +1200
282 Any other result -2600
2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
901 Trump wins every state he won in 2016 +550
902 Trump loses a state he won in 2016 -1050
903 Trump loses every state he lost in 2016 -290
904 Trump wins a state he lost in 2016 +210
905 Winner of pop vote wins elect college -280
906 Winner of pop vote loses elect college +200
907 Dem Convention held at Fiserv Forum -150
908 Dem Convention not at Fiserv Forum +110
Live Lines v0.08.10.17. All rights reserved.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Too inside baseball. American voters aren't going to care about some conspiratorial OR actual revelation from Durham or Barr, especially female voters. Trump has lost female voters in droves, men not so much.

But why the downtrodden view? Unemployment is just north of 13% now. With the re-opening of the economy, what if the rate falls to 8% prior to election day? That seems much more helpful than a "Obama spied on Trump in 2015/16" narrative. That's history. Over. No one cares, except diehard Trump supporters, and you don't need to win yourself over.

Right trump needs the economy to recover. Without it he is doomed.

Allan

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Right trump needs the economy to recover. Without it he is doomed.

Allan

The campaign was expecting over 50k people to show up for the rally, and fewer than 7k appear to have bothered.

We are #1 radioactive with covid-19 on the planet, as the rest of the world looks on with both alarm and sympathy.

This does not translate to consumer confidence or economic resilience, and Trump's supporters have made it abundantly clear that they believe that going to an indoor rally w/ 20k other people without masks or social distancing represents an unnecessary risk.

Despite the insults I hear doled out toward Trump supporters, it appears that they are not really "stupid" at all.

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Current Betfair next president market

Biden 1.75
Trump 2.64

The market says I will celebrating.

Allan

"The market" let you down last election, big time, even on the day before the election. The problem is that markets are influenced greatly by polls, which are having a very difficult time of measuring the true picture. This is particularly in states/areas where the balance of voters is more even rather than lopsided towards a particular party.

I mentioned some of the reasons why in an earlier post, but there is another very important one, again, particularly where democrats have a significant presence Because there are more loonies/crazies who will personally assault someone, or deface/destroy personal property, Trump supporters are limiting their support, both public and private, to immediate family and close friends. Those same folks, whose numbers are much greater than the public and MSM would ever realize, then anonymously vote for Trump when in the voting booth.

I am a proud Trump supporter, but I would not wear a Trump MAGA hat when I go play poker in a Baltimore/Washington area casino. No need to make myself a target without much protection in an area prone to a higher concentration of unstable and/or irrational individuals.

[MargieRose]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

"The market" let you down last election, big time, even on the day before the election. The problem is that markets are influenced greatly by polls, which are having a very difficult time of measuring the true picture. This is particularly in states/areas where the balance of voters is more even rather than lopsided towards a particular party.

I mentioned some of the reasons why in an earlier post, but there is another very important one, again, particularly where democrats have a significant presence Because there are more loonies/crazies who will personally assault someone, or deface/destroy personal property, Trump supporters are limiting their support, both public and private, to immediate family and close friends. Those same folks, whose numbers are much greater than the public and MSM would ever realize, then anonymously vote for Trump when in the voting booth.

I am a proud Trump supporter, but I would not wear a Trump MAGA hat when I go play poker in a Baltimore/Washington area casino. No need to make myself a target without much protection in an area prone to a higher concentration of unstable and/or irrational individuals.

My town here in the Demo state of CT is nowhere near the likes of Baltimore/Washington etc.; therefore, I, without fear, don my red MAGA cap quite often, when I go out grocery shopping and/or to stores like Home Depot. You'd be surprised at how often total strangers have come up to me just to say: "I like your hat."

[barahona44]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Damn...somebody REALLY woke you up recently...

You're EVERYWHERE in off-topic lately...

He still has approximately 55,000 fewer posts than you.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by MargieRose

My town here in the Demo state of CT is nowhere near the likes of Baltimore/Washington etc.; therefore, I, without fear, don my red MAGA cap quite often, when I go out grocery shopping and/or to stores like Home Depot. You'd be surprised at how often total strangers have come up to me just to say: "I like your hat."

The only good thing is you don’t live in a battleground state.

You vote for trump is wasted.

Flush it down the toilet.

Just like my biden vote here in jersey.

Jersey would vote trump for dog catcher and neither would conn.

You have my sympathy. For being a trumpet in a blue state.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

"The market" let you down last election, big time, even on the day before the election. The problem is that markets are influenced greatly by polls, which are having a very difficult time of measuring the true picture. This is particularly in states/areas where the balance of voters is more even rather than lopsided towards a particular party.

I mentioned some of the reasons why in an earlier post, but there is another very important one, again, particularly where democrats have a significant presence Because there are more loonies/crazies who will personally assault someone, or deface/destroy personal property, Trump supporters are limiting their support, both public and private, to immediate family and close friends. Those same folks, whose numbers are much greater than the public and MSM would ever realize, then anonymously vote for Trump when in the voting booth.

I am a proud Trump supporter, but I would not wear a Trump MAGA hat when I go play poker in a Baltimore/Washington area casino. No need to make myself a target without much protection in an area prone to a higher concentration of unstable and/or irrational individuals.

Boy that is the best you can do in response to trump going from favorite to long shot in a month.

It was a terrible month for him.

Maybe July will be better for him.

Allan

[lamboguy]

hold your horses now folks. Trump is only a 7/5 underdog so far. those types get beat at the race tracks throughout the world on a continual basis.

with an over whelming number of democrats to republicans, this number ain't so great for a democrat. from what i see, Trump is sitting in a good spot right now.

i am a political atheist, i just bet on elections.