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Old 05-28-2022, 01:19 PM   #31
cj
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Originally Posted by iamt View Post
They still didn't cover the takeout, between them and a rebate it was probably close to square bet wise at that point. It could jave just fallen there were no great opportunites in the win pool at that point.
Well I found one.
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Old 05-28-2022, 06:32 PM   #32
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Just because Fenwick was wildly wrong doesn't mean the CRW teams see opportunities elsewhere in the pool, the other runners could still be perceived as an underlay on their lines.

It seems counter-intuitive to talk the 'wisdom of the crowd' when some runners were so badly wrong, but by their nature larger pools should be more efficient so the actual contenders could still have been about right.
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Old 05-29-2022, 09:41 AM   #33
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It seems counter-intuitive to talk the 'wisdom of the crowd' when some runners were so badly wrong, but by their nature larger pools should be more efficient so the actual contenders could still have been about right.
All else being equal larger pools would tend to be more efficient, but races like the Derby, Preakness, Belmont and BC tend to bring in a lot of unsophisticated money relative to the typical day. That’s almost certainly why the odds were out of whack. Unsophisticated money tends to overbet long-shots.
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Old 06-02-2022, 04:40 PM   #34
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All else being equal larger pools would tend to be more efficient, but races like the Derby, Preakness, Belmont and BC tend to bring in a lot of unsophisticated money relative to the typical day. That’s almost certainly why the odds were out of whack. Unsophisticated money tends to overbet long-shots.
I can't argue with your logic, as this explanation seems to explain the relative overlays and underlays between the pools, per the posts by Suff.

At the same time, if the whales were so all mighty sharp and their pockets as deep as their reputation makes them, what doesn't make sense is why they didn't jump all over Early Voting.

"Hindsight is 50-50" as Pat Dye once said, but I would think the "sophisticated" money on racing's Big Days would be moving these pools, as these pools should be presenting some of the best opportunities of the year.

Since the Win pool didn't reflect the big moves, that tells me that maybe the Whales are leaving the game.....
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Old 06-02-2022, 06:19 PM   #35
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At the same time, if the whales were so all mighty sharp and their pockets as deep as their reputation makes them, what doesn't make sense is why they didn't jump all over Early Voting.
I felt like an idiot for not betting him at that price, but feeling like an idiot comes with the territory when you play horses. I expected him to be much shorter and wasn't interested. I should have adjusted my thinking and played what I did play and also keyed him a bit.
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Old 06-02-2022, 10:04 PM   #36
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Based on conversations I've had with a few (not all) of the whale teams over the years, my takeaway is they have one goal:

Grind out profits by consistently betting an appropriate percentage of total stake on overlays many thousands of times over and over again each year.

Final Win pool size for the Preakness was roughly $14.65 million.

Of that $1.77 million was bet on Early Voting (5-1.)

Assume for the sake of argument:

1. With half the field loaded into the gate, the largest of the five or six whale teams saw Early Voting at 5-1 as a healthy 15% overlay. (EV = 1.15)

2. Bankroll on Preakness Day for that team was $5 million.

3. Bet sizing on Preakness Day for that team was one third Kelly.

Given the above, Win Pool Bet Sizing for Early Voting at 5-1 can be calculated as follows:

Bank: 5,000,000
Edge: 0.15
Odds: 5.00

((Edge/Odds) X Bank)/3 = OneThirdKellyBetSize

Or

((0.15/5) X 5,000,000)/3 = 150,000

Or

Their total Win bets on Early Voting were $150k.

The above assumptions are hardly a given.

That said, I don't think the above numbers are that far removed from reality.

Total amount bet on Early Voting in the Win pool was $1.77 million.

$150,000 of $1.77 million is roughly 8.5%.

If three of the other whale teams bet $100k, $100k, and $75k on Early voting, that $425k would account for about 24% percent of the total money bet on Early Voting.

Again just a guess on my part. But Imo one that doesn't seem out of line.

Now any one of those whale teams could have stepped up and bet significantly more on Early Voting if they wanted to.

Provided they were the only team to do that, and that is by no means a given:

Final pool size would have supported it, and the horse would have still been an overlay.

But that goes against the grain of what they are trying to do:

Grind out profits by consistently betting an appropriate percentage of total stake on overlays many thousands of times over and over again each year.

Imo:

The $425k I'm guessing the whale teams collectively bet on Early Voting was very much in line with their game plans.

Even if a horse is an overlay, taking a flyer and making a bet MANY times larger than your game plan... THAT can only be called one thing:

GAMBLING.

And that is not what they do.



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Last edited by Jeff P; 06-02-2022 at 10:13 PM.
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Old 06-02-2022, 10:41 PM   #37
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That makes sense. Any large betting operation tries to ride out variance. You don't do that by shooting for the big score in any particular race- you do that by betting comparatively somewhat smaller amounts in every race where you have an edge, just like an online poker player playing 12 tables does.
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Old 06-02-2022, 11:18 PM   #38
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Thanks, Jeff.
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Old 06-03-2022, 12:12 AM   #39
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And of course I hit the submit button too soon and ran out of edit time.

The bet sizing calculations should read as follows:

Quote:
Assume for the sake of argument:

1. With half the field loaded into the gate, the largest of the five or six whale teams saw Early Voting at 5-1 as a healthy 15% overlay. (EV = 1.15)

2. Bankroll on Preakness Day for that team was $15 million.

3. Bet sizing on Preakness Day for that team was one third Kelly.

Given the above, Win Pool Bet Sizing for Early Voting at 5-1 can be calculated as follows:

Bank: 15,000,000
Edge: 0.15
Odds: 5.00

((Edge/Odds) X Bank)/3 = OneThirdKellyBetSize

Or

((0.15/5) X 15,000,000)/3 = 150,000

Or

Their total Win bets on Early Voting were $150k.

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Old 06-03-2022, 02:39 PM   #40
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Jeff,

Thanks for putting numbers to what intuitively seemed likely.
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Old 06-04-2022, 07:42 AM   #41
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Thanks for running through some potential numbers there, Jeff. Maybe my assumption on how nimble the whales are is not close to how they operate.

It was my understanding that the odds for the Preakness were being displayed earlier in the day, and then there was about 50 minutes or so when it was the "active" next race, so I also assumed that the odds would tighten up dramatically to get more in line with the double pools. After all, it seems often that by the time the whales are done betting, there's not much in the way of overlays left on the board. And in this case, there were at least three horses that were juicy odds, assuming the double payouts were an accurate read, with Early Voting a literal steal.

In fact I backed off a little, cause I thought he was "cold" on the board. D'oh!

Guess I've been watching too many huge swings at Hong Kong, where the pools are huge and the whales have very deep pockets...
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