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Old 05-23-2022, 07:42 AM   #1
Andy Asaro
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Trying to explain all the weird betting on Preakness 2022

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...kness_2022_123

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HRN’s Ed DeRosa was not as convinced this was the case. He felt this running of the Preakness was an outlier that he never had seen before.

“You can’t have a horse be 80-1 in a $1 million double pool and 13-1 in the win pool and seriously think that’s a bunch of Joe Blows taking a flyer on a long shot,” he said. “Two horses (Happy Jack and Fenwick) with a 1 percent chance to win both took 6 percent of the money. It’s incredible.”

With $14,650,560 in the win pool, Midland noted that it did not take very much money to influence the odds. Happy Jack attracted $928,654 in win bets; Fenwick $845,448.

“Honestly, $14 million is a pretty small win pool for one of the three biggest races of the year,” Midland said. “Maybe across the entire country an extra $500,000 got bet on the two long shots. And $500,000 is only 25,000 people betting $20 on each horse. That’s nothing.”

In the end, all that money bet into the win pool on the long shots was lost, just like all the money bet on Epicenter, who was a clear favorite in all the pools.
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Old 05-23-2022, 07:56 AM   #2
geroge.burns99
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I believe both were sentimental choices and after The Derby ..

Why not bet longshots!!!
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Old 05-23-2022, 08:08 AM   #3
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I think the Preakness odds were a scream in the face about how critical the loss of casual bettors has been to the potential for beating the game. Without them, it slowly becomes a competition between serious handicappers and computers.

I’m biased on the issue, but that’s one reason I wasn’t thrilled with the demise of NYC OTB like a lot of other people. That place was loaded with casual bettors that were seeding the pools with inefficient money. Many of them dropped out. The tracks (mostly NYRA) may have recaptured many of the OTB phone bettors and added some more. Some of the handle from a couple of OTBs may have moved to AQU or BEL simulcasts. But they didn’t recapture a lot of the older and other neighborhood bettors. Even people I know dropped out.

The economics of the OTBs sucked. So there may not have been any easy solution. But imo getting more participation from casual players helps both handle and opens to door to more overlays. The Preakness was just an extreme enough example to make everyone notice, but even an extra tick here or there helps.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 05-23-2022 at 08:14 AM.
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Old 05-23-2022, 08:38 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think the Preakness odds were a scream in the face about how critical the loss of casual bettors has been to the potential for beating the game. Without them, it slowly becomes a competition between serious handicappers and computers.

I’m biased on the issue, but that’s one reason I wasn’t thrilled with the demise of NYC OTB like a lot of other people. That place was loaded with casual bettors that were seeding the pools with inefficient money. Many of them dropped out. The tracks (mostly NYRA) may have recaptured many of the OTB phone bettors and added some more. Some of the handle from a couple of OTBs may have moved to AQU or BEL simulcasts. But they didn’t recapture a lot of the older and other neighborhood bettors. Even people I know dropped out.

The economics of the OTBs sucked. So there may not have been any easy solution. But imo getting more participation from casual players helps both handle and opens to door to more overlays. The Preakness was just an extreme enough example to make everyone notice, but even an extra tick here or there helps.
Its also the era we are in .....

My thoughts , in another 10-15 years ...not much will be left...

UNLESS THINGS CHANGE!!!!
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Old 05-23-2022, 09:09 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think the Preakness odds were a scream in the face about how critical the loss of casual bettors has been to the potential for beating the game. Without them, it slowly becomes a competition between serious handicappers and computers.

I’m biased on the issue, but that’s one reason I wasn’t thrilled with the demise of NYC OTB like a lot of other people. That place was loaded with casual bettors that were seeding the pools with inefficient money. Many of them dropped out. The
This right here is why I love Saratoga even more. The “half lit, tourist , vacation money” is the easiest to take home. And Sunday is not fun day…….Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are!

Last edited by burnsy; 05-23-2022 at 09:12 AM.
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Old 05-23-2022, 09:39 AM   #6
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I think many thought lightning would strike twice.
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Old 05-23-2022, 09:47 AM   #7
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Conspiracy theory alert

I don't buy the public did it for a second. Seems to me like the mega whales knew Epicenter wasn't a win candidate and bet several others in the field. I'd imagine they were getting crazy high rebates for the day to boost handle. If you know Rosario is gonna take back like that and that it would be slow pace............???????
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Old 05-23-2022, 10:07 AM   #8
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Conspiracy theory alert

I don't buy the public did it for a second. Seems to me like the mega whales knew Epicenter wasn't a win candidate and bet several others in the field. I'd imagine they were getting crazy high rebates for the day to boost handle. If you know Rosario is gonna take back like that and that it would be slow pace............???????
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Old 05-23-2022, 10:07 AM   #9
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he's a 'Philanthropist'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
Conspiracy theory alert

I don't buy the public did it for a second. Seems to me like the mega whales knew Epicenter wasn't a win candidate and bet several others in the field. I'd imagine they were getting crazy high rebates for the day to boost handle. If you know Rosario is gonna take back like that and that it would be slow pace............???????

I don't know. I can't tell you any valuable 'answers'.

My tinfoil bandana theory?
"Philanthropists."

( hey it's my conspiracy theory, and it's probably less crazy than track mgt coming up with a brilliant idea ).

You see... Philanthropists 'seeded' the win pools early to eliminate the takeout in Win Betting.

Listen, Our bodies have an electromagnetic field.

We got greedy and overbet Epicenter ( opening 9/5 was a fair price regardless of how you interpret the trip and tactics ). So he was bet down to closer to normal betting prices.
All the other win contenders ( Early , and Voting ), were somewhere between fair odds and overlay.

Girl Power got a little underlay money. She had a reasonable chance of running 3rd or 4th, while her fair win odds were higher than 20/1.

The main Philanthropy or track-mgt-groupthink-genius$$ clearly came in on Fenwick and Happy Jack.
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Old 05-23-2022, 11:03 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by burnsy View Post
This right here is why I love Saratoga even more. The “half lit, tourist , vacation money” is the easiest to take home. And Sunday is not fun day…….Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are!
I agree however that dead money rolling in is not going to pick 4 and 5 pools. The dead money bettors love the grand slam wager and of course WPS. I don’t play either so no advantage to me.
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Old 05-23-2022, 11:12 AM   #11
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I don't buy the Epicenter conspiracy theories because even if Rosario decides he's not going to hustle Epicenter out of the gate, he has no idea that the pace will be so slow (24 and change). He gives the same ride, and the pace is 23 and 2, Epicenter gets up and wins. He gives the same ride, and the pace is like the Derby, Epicenter wins by 8.
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Old 05-23-2022, 12:29 PM   #12
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Fenwick at 13/1, and Fenwick, Happy Jack, and Armagnac all under 20/1 was pure insanity.
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Old 05-23-2022, 12:44 PM   #13
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[tinfoil hat off ahem serious rational handicapping]

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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
I don't buy the Epicenter conspiracy theories because even if Rosario decides he's not going to hustle Epicenter out of the gate, he has no idea that the pace will be so slow (24 and change). He gives the same ride, and the pace is 23 and 2, Epicenter gets up and wins. He gives the same ride, and the pace is like the Derby, Epicenter wins by 8.
I respect that opinion.

As far as I can see, both horses are reasonably close. 'Raw' Epicenter may be a little 'better' as far as part of their equivalence being after I allow for Early Voting's faster early pace, and the lack of pace rivals, and the Pimlico track.

After those factors, I can't really split them up. Epicenter is more proven...

If you or anyone has them different or has multiple contenders, you will have different ideas.

pre-Preakness - - Early Voting may have some upside that I haven't seen... Epicenter just ran a reasonably big performance in the big race Kentucky Derby, so he's going to be favored on my line and moreso in the public's eyes.
Secret Oath and Simplification reduce the takeout a little in my own value line.

I can't tell if Early Voting or Epicenter is better in that field on the Pimlico track.

(then with the unusual Giacamo Syndrome betting of Fenway ( I mean "
Fenwick", and " Happy Jack"... I guess a small $100 player like me should just throw away the puzzles, and Dutch the and enjoy the festivities ).

[TINFOIL BANDANA BACK ON] or "can a peasant censor a king"]

as far as the Trip?
a bit unusual for a Grade 1.
The and the had cooperative tactics.

Usually this kind of stuff is reserved for a MSW when a big owner has an expensive or likeable horse and it's a big local field, and nobody really cares if there is an 'uncoupled' entry.

Knowing this, I think Rosario would have no choice but to almost quarterhorse and bully his way outside toward the front of the Skippylongstocking. Rate as much as possible while wide around the 1st turn, ( assuming wasn't freestyling tactics to then focus on herding the even wider; ) try to advance a moderate position on the backstretch, begin his run far turn around the time Irad passed the baton to Jose. -- and all this would still handicap Epicenter enough as to make it an advantage for the .

And that's if Rosario was a mindreader!
Even if you followed Brown's comments about a 'target', and Yakteen's comments that they had no worry of Epicenter out-breaking their early pace, you wouldn't guess that the would break well, look around, and the would break well and outward, and then cruise up to lead a slow pace.

Epicenter was the only contender other than Early Voting. Epicenter was posted outside the and has less early pace than both and AND THERE'S NO SPEED THREAT INSIDE. If Messier was post , it's a totally different game.
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Old 05-23-2022, 01:19 PM   #14
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I think many thought lightning would strike twice.
My sentiments also.
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Old 05-23-2022, 05:37 PM   #15
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"“You can’t have a horse be 80-1 in a $1 million double pool and 13-1 in the win pool and seriously think that’s a bunch of Joe Blows taking a flyer on a long shot,” he said. ”


Those are the words of just another idiot who can't comprehend that a bunch of Joe Blows have zero to do with a $1 million double pool, and that citing such a thing as evidence at all in this matter is clueless thinking.


DeRosa would sound more intelligent if citing Rick's Natural Star as a tangent to the way Preakness win wagering was distributed.
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