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Old 07-09-2022, 04:28 PM   #46
Half Smoke
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Twinspires PL

_____________


I've read some posts indicating that the general belief is their PL is pretty good

I haven't done a study of it but I believe race 7 the Belmont Oaks is similar to what I've seen from them before

they had the fave Concert Hall - ML 5/2 - actual 3/1 at 35/1

they had the #4 - With the Moonlight - ML 7/1 - Actual - 6/1 at 50/1 - he got place

they had Agartha - 12/1 ML - Actual 10/1 at 50/1

they had New Years Eve 5/1 ML - Actual 6/1 at 25/1

they had the winner McKulick at 9/5 - I give them credit for that

but I can't see the logic in the other stuff

do they really know that much more about these horses than the public as a whole___?

I doubt it



for those who might be wondering - I tippy-toed back into the water (racing)

new strategy but not much confidence - definitely no swag -


.


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Old 07-09-2022, 05:02 PM   #47
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_____________

they had the #4 - With the Moonlight - ML 7/1 - Actual - 6/1 at 50/1 - he got place

.

too late to edit - meant to say "she got place"


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Old 07-10-2022, 12:46 AM   #48
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Half of that field was foreign. Not sure that is the best way to evaluate profit line. For me personally, I'd say they probably know more than I do about the foreign horses.
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Old 07-10-2022, 04:00 AM   #49
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This has been interesting. My question about Fibonacci handicapping is what if two horses should both be 5 to 1 and two should be 4 to 1? It doesn't seem to allow for that. Am I wrong?
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Old 07-10-2022, 09:50 AM   #50
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Ranger,

Not sure that this would address your question but might help.

PaceMakesTheRace Fibonacci Articles

Of those, this one will likely give you what you're looking for.
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Old 07-10-2022, 12:28 PM   #51
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Half of that field was foreign. Not sure that is the best way to evaluate profit line. For me personally, I'd say they probably know more than I do about the foreign horses.

after looking at this some more - I think you are correct

I think Twinspires PL is sending a message

and that message is that many of these shots or mid price horses should be much longer shots

and that does make sense to me


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Old 07-22-2022, 03:09 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
This has been interesting. My question about Fibonacci handicapping is what if two horses should both be 5 to 1 and two should be 4 to 1? It doesn't seem to allow for that. Am I wrong?
I think it can be handled, but the process may be handled differently for each person who uses it.

If you take the fibonacci series:
21 13 8 5 3 2 1 1

and you have two values tied for the 3rd & 4th spot, you might decide to assign 8 to both (the higher number), 5 to both (the lower number), or take the sum and divide it by two and assign 6.5 to both. My spreadsheet uses the latter approach.

Then, when assigning odds, you need to have some "wiggle room" rather than ensuring that they precisely match the total score. In my opinion (hardly worth much), the actual "morning line" odds assignment is likely less critical than the relative rating would be.

For example, here is what I have for Race 1 at Del Mar after scratches (the second number is the point assignment, the odds come from a lookup table I created):

1 8.22 7 / 1
2
3 2.46 37 / 1
4 18.10 3 / 1
5 21.76 5 / 2
6 15.23 4 / 1
7 43.13 1 / 1
8 10.38 5 / 1
9 27.00 9 / 5
10

Before the scratch of the , the and both were at 5/2. Elimination of the moved the up higher in a couple of categories.

The limitation I see is that this methodology discourages the handicapper from evaluating the impact that a speed dual or an extremely slow pace might have on the overall outcome, but I like its simplicity.
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Old 04-14-2023, 04:08 PM   #53
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BUMP

I've had a couple emails about the the shorter version I switched to, so I thought quick review might be due.

1. I use speed last race, ACL, and PP columns
2. I give poits to the top 4 in each as follows: 10, 6, 4, 2 If there is a tie, say for SR last race, I give each 8 pts instead og 10, 6
3. I want 4-5 contenders, so I try to use the top 3 in each column, and if that is not 5, I use 4th and/or 5th in PP
4. Bestpossible score is 30.

Calculating odds:

There are a total of 66 points available. Since this method use only the last line, I want some protection, so will assume I will include the winner only 80% of the time. 66 is 80% of about 84, so I use 84 to get odds.

Best horse has a 30 rating, so..... 30/84 = .357% = 1.7-1 odds
If you use no cushiom, actual probality, you assume winner is included 100% od the time, 30/66 = .454% = 1.2 -1 odds
If you think your wiiner is only likely to be included 75% of the time, use 90,
so that 30/90 -= 2.0 -1 odds.

So depending on your confidence level,

100% - 66 30/66 = .454, 1/.454 = 2.2 - 1= 1.2-1
90% - 75 30/75 = .400, 1/.400 = 2.5 - 1 = 1.5-1
80% - 84 30/84 = .357, 1/.357 = 2.8 - 1 = 1.8-1
76% - 90 30/90 = .333, 1/.333 = 3.0 - 1 = 2.0-1
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Old 04-14-2023, 04:45 PM   #54
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What about pace?

I've been playing around with a composite pace ranking that could be promising.

Use the EP and LP columns. Multiply the horse ranking in wach togeter for a composite pace rankig.


Horse EP LP COMPSITE RANK

A 2 5 = 10
B 1 3 = 3 #1
C 3 2 = 6 #3
D 4 4 = 16
E 5 1 = 5 #2
F 6 6 = 36


If you want to add this, or any other 4th factor, the new raw total would be 88 instead of 66, and highest sore would be 4o.

For confidence levers, use the following to calculate probabilities:

100% 88
-90% 98
-80% 110
-75% 118
-70% 126

Good luck!
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Old 04-14-2023, 06:25 PM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
What about pace?

I've been playing around with a composite pace ranking that could be promising.

Use the EP and LP columns. Multiply the horse ranking in wach togeter for a composite pace rankig.


Horse EP LP COMPSITE RANK

A 2 5 = 10
B 1 3 = 3 #1
C 3 2 = 6 #3
D 4 4 = 16
E 5 1 = 5 #2
F 6 6 = 36


If you want to add this, or any other 4th factor, the new raw total would be 88 instead of 66, and highest sore would be 4o.

For confidence levers, use the following to calculate probabilities:

100% 88
-90% 98
-80% 110
-75% 118
-70% 126

Good luck!
A silly question I hope. Do you log in any portion of the wps and exact results to you data tables?
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Old 04-14-2023, 07:10 PM   #56
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Fibonacci numbers... 100, 62, 38, 24, 14 and 10

For straight up odds:

( nTotal - nCalc ) / nCalc

That doesn't take into account takeout.

if nCalc is zero, I call that 100/1
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Old 04-14-2023, 07:30 PM   #57
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A silly question I hope. Do you log in any portion of the wps and exact results to you data tables?
No. Everything is just hand done with a PDF file and hand calculator to get an odds line for win. I do play exactas.
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Old 04-19-2023, 02:39 PM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
What about pace?

I've been playing around with a composite pace ranking that could be promising.

Use the EP and LP columns. Multiply the horse ranking in wach togeter for a composite pace rankig.


Horse EP LP COMPSITE RANK

A 2 5 = 10
B 1 3 = 3 #1
C 3 2 = 6 #3
D 4 4 = 16
E 5 1 = 5 #2
F 6 6 = 36


If you want to add this, or any other 4th factor, the new raw total would be 88 instead of 66, and highest sore would be 4o.

For confidence levers, use the following to calculate probabilities:

100% 88
-90% 98
-80% 110
-75% 118
-70% 126

Good luck!

Your work here is interesting, sent you a PM.
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