The Science of Figures: Weight Adjustments

[jeebus1083]

I know that The Ragozins and Thoro-Graph incorporate this in their figures. I made a post a few years ago asking about a weight adjustment and was told that 1 lb. = .2 points. I'm assuming that this is universal at any distance. If this is the case, then I have a hard time buying the theory that the amount of weight carried is going to have the same effect on a horse at 6F as it does going 1 1/16m. In reality, I feel that weight has more of a magnified impact in a route than it does in a sprint.

If I have to carry a heavy object on my back and run a 100 yard dash, the added weight will definitely have an impact on my finish time. However, if I have to carry the same amount of weight, and you ask me to run 400 yards, I will effectively tire at an accelerated rate as the race gets longer.

This might be basic Physics 101, but is there a mathematical equation to determine the effect of weight and distance?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by jeebus1083

I know that The Ragozins and Thoro-Graph incorporate this in their figures. I made a post a few years ago asking about a weight adjustment and was told that 1 lb. = .2 points. I'm assuming that this is universal at any distance. If this is the case, then I have a hard time buying the theory that the amount of weight carried is going to have the same effect on a horse at 6F as it does going 1 1/16m. In reality, I feel that weight has more of a magnified impact in a route than it does in a sprint.

If I have to carry a heavy object on my back and run a 100 yard dash, the added weight will definitely have an impact on my finish time. However, if I have to carry the same amount of weight, and you ask me to run 400 yards, I will effectively tire at an accelerated rate as the race gets longer.

This might be basic Physics 101, but is there a mathematical equation to determine the effect of weight and distance?

If it was a linear trend the formula would be simple but I doubt that it is, it's probably some kind of bell curve.

[gm10]

imo weight can be very important but it depends on the running style of the horse, the surface, the distance, the track, the field size, etc

Zenyatta for example was clearly bogged down by her handicap last time - if she had been in a bigger field of equal quality, she may have been beaten because she may have had to do more than just simply find her cruising speed

having said that I just make a linear adjustment for my own numbers
Rags To Riches f.e. got a lower number than Curlin in the Belmont because of the difference in weight

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=59231

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by gm10

imo weight can be very important but it depends on the running style of the horse, the surface, the distance, the track, the field size, etc

Zenyatta for example was clearly bogged down by her handicap last time - if she had been in a bigger field of equal quality, she may have been beaten because she may have had to do more than just simply find her cruising speed

having said that I just make a linear adjustment for my own numbers
Rags To Riches f.e. got a lower number than Curlin in the Belmont because of the difference in weight

the effects of high weight on a soft turf course or a muddy main track is magnified especially with a larger horse.The theory is that they will tire quicker on a slower surface.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by fmolf

the effects of high weight on a soft turf course or a muddy main track is magnified especially with a larger horse.The theory is that they will tire quicker on a slower surface.

yeah that makes sense...

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by gm10

yeah that makes sense...

I thought so too when i heard it.Although i know of no way of measuring its effects or quantifying the effect on speed early or otherwise.

[Judge Gallivan]

Originally Posted by jeebus1083

I know that The Ragozins and Thoro-Graph incorporate this in their figures. I made a post a few years ago asking about a weight adjustment and was told that 1 lb. = .2 points. I'm assuming that this is universal at any distance. If this is the case, then I have a hard time buying the theory that the amount of weight carried is going to have the same effect on a horse at 6F as it does going 1 1/16m. In reality, I feel that weight has more of a magnified impact in a route than it does in a sprint.

Yes, they count 5lb. = 1 point.

But, this is where you're wrong: 1 point equals 1 length at 5 furlongs, but 2 lengths at 1 1/4 mile.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by fmolf

I thought so too when i heard it.Although i know of no way of measuring its effects or quantifying the effect on speed early or otherwise.

The way I measured the weight effect a few years ago, was by comparing established horses' runs during the summer months over the same track, surface, distance, going but carrying different weight (at least 2 runs required). I suppose you could so something similar for measuring the effect under particular circumstances, such as a wet turf.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by gm10

The way I measured the weight effect a few years ago, was by comparing established horses' runs during the summer months over the same track, surface, distance, going but carrying different weight (at least 2 runs required). I suppose you could so something similar for measuring the effect under particular circumstances, such as a wet turf.

i suppose you could especially if you have lifetime pp's

[gm10]

Originally Posted by fmolf

i suppose you could especially if you have lifetime pp's

I think just a few months is enough. I did a linear regression and ended up with tons of data for just 2 months. There might be a little bit less if you're focusing on things like dry vs. wet turf racing, but two months should still be more than sufficient.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I have never factored weight into handicapping much, but not because I believe that it simply does not matter.

Rather, I believe the weight that matters is the load burdening the horse as perceived by that horse. By that I mean that data accumulated demonstrating the differences in performances when carrying various numerical representations of weight are ignorant to the fact that the weight is actually a person or a person + an impost in the saddle, such as lead or graphite.

I am sure that is a bit unclear, but to help illustrate - I weigh 126 - 131 pounds naturally. I don't care to ride, even the pony, because I'm not very good and it hurts, but I can do it. My gallop boy, once a rider, now too old and heavy, weighs about 140 pounds.

I am certain that the perceived weight by the horse itself when carrying yours truly is significantly greater than the weight that horse perceives that it is carrying when he is packing the gallop boy.

Because balance, center of gravity, posture, finesse and various other factors factor directly into how any weight positively or negatively effects the stride or stamina of a horse while running, it seems a little naive to assume that simply 118 pounds equates to a better performance than does 121 pounds.

If identical robots with identical attributes and style rode horses, I could certainly buy into formulas and theories that draw conclusions based upon weight, but to do so with indifference to the abundance of other mitigating variables present in tandem with weight breaks/gains leaves me with only the conclusion that I need to be convinced that "all else" is in fact equal, which it rarely is.

I think.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

I have never factored weight into handicapping much, but not because I believe that it simply does not matter.

Rather, I believe the weight that matters is the load burdening the horse as perceived by that horse. By that I mean that data accumulated demonstrating the differences in performances when carrying various numerical representations of weight are ignorant to the fact that the weight is actually a person or a person + an impost in the saddle, such as lead or graphite.

I am sure that is a bit unclear, but to help illustrate - I weigh 126 - 131 pounds naturally. I don't care to ride, even the pony, because I'm not very good and it hurts, but I can do it. My gallop boy, once a rider, now too old and heavy, weighs about 140 pounds.

I am certain that the perceived weight by the horse itself when carrying yours truly is significantly greater than the weight that horse perceives that it is carrying when he is packing the gallop boy.

Because balance, center of gravity, posture, finesse and various other factors factor directly into how any weight positively or negatively effects the stride or stamina of a horse while running, it seems a little naive to assume that simply 118 pounds equates to a better performance than does 121 pounds.

If identical robots with identical attributes and style rode horses, I could certainly buy into formulas and theories that draw conclusions based upon weight, but to do so with indifference to the abundance of other mitigating variables present in tandem with weight breaks/gains leaves me with only the conclusion that I need to be convinced that "all else" is in fact equal, which it rarely is.

I think.

i believe Shoemaker proved to everybody that static weight is better for a horse to carry than a heavier human load during a race.the heavier jocks sometimes threw the horses balance off.I believe you when you say the heavier gallop boy was easier for the horse to carry.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by jeebus1083

I know that The Ragozins and Thoro-Graph incorporate this in their figures. I made a post a few years ago asking about a weight adjustment and was told that 1 lb. = .2 points. I'm assuming that this is universal at any distance. If this is the case, then I have a hard time buying the theory that the amount of weight carried is going to have the same effect on a horse at 6F as it does going 1 1/16m. In reality, I feel that weight has more of a magnified impact in a route than it does in a sprint.

If I have to carry a heavy object on my back and run a 100 yard dash, the added weight will definitely have an impact on my finish time. However, if I have to carry the same amount of weight, and you ask me to run 400 yards, I will effectively tire at an accelerated rate as the race gets longer.

This might be basic Physics 101, but is there a mathematical equation to determine the effect of weight and distance?

Please go to thread "WEIGHT INFLUENCE ON HANDICAPPING" and read Robert 99's post #25 because it might give you some insight about the weight being toted by the racehorse.

You mentioned physics and then you realize it is not just the weight on the horse’s back, but the total weight that is being moved with the kinetic energy expended by the horse.