Speed Figures

[Watcher]

Posted on our forum:

I found this blog post to be pretty interesting...

http://thoroughbredchampions.com/200...f-derby-speed/

by Jared Kennedy

In order to get a better look I have split all the Derby entrants into 6 separate Beyer Speed Figure patterns. “A” represents the highest speed figure in the horses last three races while “C” the lowest. I won’t insult your intelligence by explaining what “B” indicates. The patterns are listed with the most recent race first so an A/B/C pattern is a horse with 3 improving Beyer figures going into the Derby. Here is how the patterns have performed in the Derby since 1996.

Beyer Pattern A/B/C: 80-4-7-5
Beyer Pattern A/C/B: 40-3-3-4
Beyer Pattern B/A/C: 41-4-2-3
Beyer Pattern B/C/A: 18-1-0-0
Beyer Pattern C/A/B: 27-0-1-1
Beyer Pattern C/B/A: 19-1-0-0

As you can see the majority of the winners came into the Derby with one of the first three patterns. The classic “three improving figures” pattern was easily the most common producing 34% of the Derby starters and yet it is not necessarily the pattern with the strongest results. Clearly A/C/B and B/A/C are strong patterns as well.

On the downside it seems clear from these pattern breakdowns that the two things you don’t want to see from your horse is their best figure (A) coming 3 starts back. You also don’t want to see their worst figure being earned in their final race. Horses with either factor working against them went 64-2-1-1. It clearly looks like the worst pattern subset to me. If you exclude two year old races for those with just two starts as a three year old the record of horses whose final Beyer was worse than their last two you get a cumulative record of 39-0-1-1. Not a real positive.

Beyer Pattern A/B/C: Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, Friesan Fire, Giant Oak
Beyer Pattern A/C/B: Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man, Papa Clem, West Side Bernie, Just a Coincidence
Beyer Pattern B/A/C: Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Win Willy, Hold Me Back, Flying Private
Beyer Pattern B/C/A: General Quarters, Mr. Hot Stuff
Beyer Pattern C/A/B:
Beyer Pattern C/B/A:

It seems like the majority of the Derby hopefuls this year have a positive pattern going for them. General Quarters and Mr. Hot Stuff are the only two with a negative pattern but no one is coming into the race with the dreaded C/A/B.

Then responded with Brisnet Speed Figures from the PP provided by Derby website:

Speed Pattern A/B/C: Advice, Friesan Fire, Just A Coincidence, Musket Man, Summer Bird
Speed Pattern A/C/B: Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff, Papa Clem, West Side Bernie
Speed Pattern B/A/C: Dunkirk, Hold Me Back, I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Win Willy
Speed Pattern B/C/A: General Quarters, Mine That Bird, Pioneerof The Nile, Take The Points
Speed Pattern C/A/B: Flying Private, Join In The Dance,
Speed Pattern C/B/A: Square Eddie

[fmolf]

this is very interesting but i do not know how helpful it will be trying to pick the winner....perhaps with formulator you could interject the workouts of all horses between there races and then come up with a horse that is peaking on the first saturday of may....

[MNslappy]

19 of the 26 place and show finishers come from A/B/C or A/C/B

by the way if anyone has access to the Beyer patterns of the other 4-6 horses in the field that got left out of his list, please post them.

[Watcher]

The Dubai horses + Mafaaz won't have Beyer figures, will they?

[MNslappy]

Beyer Pattern A/B/C: Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, Friesan Fire, Square Eddie, Summer Bird, Regal Ransom (Racing Post Rating #s)

Beyer Pattern A/C/B: Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man, Papa Clem, West Side Bernie, Just a Coincidence, Advice

Beyer Pattern B/A/C: Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Win Willy, Hold Me Back, Flying Private, Mine That Bird

Beyer Pattern B/C/A: General Quarters, Mr. Hot Stuff

Beyer Pattern C/A/B: Desert Party

Beyer Pattern C/B/A:

[Watcher]

How is there such a difference between Brisnet and Beyer speed figures when it comes to Square Eddie...

Are you sure he's an A/B/C?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Watcher

The Dubai horses + Mafaaz won't have Beyer figures, will they?

No, but they will have Racing Post numbers, and if you do a search here, CJ posted a conversion formula that works rather well. Damn well. Friggin great!

An article by James Quinn dismisses them all as being ordinary Group III class, based on his opinion of the RP numbers, FWIW.

[MNslappy]

Square Eddie's #s according to the DRF PPs go Lex-91, SanRaf-91, BCJuvy-89, BrdrsFut-87.

[rastajenk]

Looks like a toss, any way you slice it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

This is interesting the lack of responses to this thread.

People can look at running line patterns,trainer patterns,etc etc,but when it comes to patterns of numbers which yes,may be oversimplified,there is such a disdain of the numbers themselves that looking at their patterns is viewed as pseudoscience.In short many still think all is relevant in the universe except the way horses run fast or slow.

Thanks for the info.Very interesting.

[rastajenk]

Roger that. I thought it was a very good look at the numbers.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

This is interesting the lack of responses to this thread.

People can look at running line patterns,trainer patterns,etc etc,but when it comes to patterns of numbers which yes,may be oversimplified,there is such a disdain of the numbers themselves that looking at their patterns is viewed as pseudoscience.In short many still think all is relevant in the universe except the way horses run fast or slow.

Thanks for the info.Very interesting.

you can come up with patterns of numbers to support lots of viewpoints and lots of different trends..but nothing can quantify how a young horse will react to the pomp an circumstance, and the cavalry charge that happens on the first saturday in may!

[BeatTheChalk]

. OK OK You can Q UOTE me Box Q uality Road to the General Q uarters. Then .. Stop at the Q uick Mart & go home.

[Tread]

One other note, reading a pattern is only useful if the data making up the pattern is solid and not full of flaws.

[rastajenk]

Solid, yes; flawless, not necessarily.