Interesting long shot angle that I've been following

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by coachv30

This is really good insight Light....makes it a lot easier to ignore this angle if certain other elements don't fit.

Just remember...the tighter you make an angle .......


The harder you will fall asleep after seeing that $80 horse win and you passed it

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Light

My program includes more than just jockey switches to come up with the "combined total factors" a horse can have.

For example if the horse only qualifies for the "italicized angle" my very limited statistics show a 35% win rate . Even slightly better is if the horse's last race was a "top"as well. But if the horse had a top and no works >23 days, it becomes a losing angle. Or if there was no top, just no works greater than 23 days.

I have limited data when there is a jock switch. That's because I don't enter data on jock switches unless the new rider (same goes for trainers) has a win % that is 10% above or below the previous one. Horses definitely perform better with a jock who has a 10% greater win % than the previous one and vice versa.

If there is no 10% discrepancy between riders and the previous jock was within 1 length of winning with the horse (or won) and is now on another horse, then that is usually a negative with this angle. My stats show those horses win only 10% of the time.

I make exceptions if the horse is claimed. Most of the time the new trainer will use his own jock and the jock switch is not intentional but from the barn change.Also if a horse comes from another track into the track you are playing and had a 20% jock on and now you have a 6% jock on I don't bother giving that a negative either because there are many things beyond control in those situations. Also sometimes the lower % jock is intentional to get the price up.

There are 50 "factors" that my program checks for. Besides the italicized horse, there are drops, trouble,change in distance,"big wins"etc. That would mean around 2500 different "combined total factors" a horse can have coming into a race. I currently have data on only 900 form factors, some with only 1 sample.

Although I've used this factor Coach is talking about for years, it's only been the last couple of years I decided to try to find the statistics on it as well as other form factors. Anecdotal evidence is too inaccurate.

Thanks for the detailed answer. You have a few things I never considered with the class drop jockey switch.

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Just remember...the tighter you make an angle .......


The harder you will fall asleep after seeing that $80 horse win and you passed it

Oh I get it....I'm not looking to tighten things up that much. If it's a key race and it was last out or two back and horse showed something last out, I'm gonna play it.

My comments to Light were referring to lines that have one last out winner identified. You see that all of the time, but he did a nice job adding in other elements to look for in this situation.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by coachv30

Oh I get it....I'm not looking to tighten things up that much. If it's a key race and it was last out or two back and horse showed something last out, I'm gonna play it.

My comments to Light were referring to lines that have one last out winner identified. You see that all of the time, but he did a nice job adding in other elements to look for in this situation.

Yep me too....even when I'm trying to develop something....I play it...

I shouldn't but whats $2...

[coachv30]

WRD 5/11

Race 4

In at a mile today for MCL15K

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by coachv30

WRD 5/11

Race 4

In at a mile today for MCL15K

I like......
But heres a question...How is horses coming in from Oaklawn doing at WRD?

18% @ .96 ROI...looks good to me...

[coachv30]

Hey Light....does this one meet your requirements?

-2 lengths out at wire two back
-Ran very even last our
- 2nd time out with new barn

20/1 on the ML

WRD 5/11

Race 5- 6F CLM5K

Disregard the bullet work...it was on 4/1

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

I like......
But heres a question...How is horses coming in from Oaklawn doing at WRD?

18% @ .96 ROI...looks good to me...

Not sure...but like you said, I'm keeping as loose as possible. This was a true key race here two back...what's $2 if the price is right?

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by coachv30

Hey Light....does this one meet your requirements?

-2 lengths out at wire two back
-Ran very even last our
- 2nd time out with new barn

20/1 on the ML

I'd put 2 bucks on it...but confidence wise ? nah..
Look at lifetime record...where does horse like to finish?

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

I'd put 2 bucks on it...but confidence wise ? nah..
Look at lifetime record...where does horse like to finish?

Underneath...and that just might be where I use him.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by coachv30

Underneath...and that just might be where I use him.

[coachv30]

Once again...my mind is going on me......these last two are for Tuesday 5/12. Yes...I am officially the town idiot!! Wen to the site, clicked on what I thought was 5/11, never looked at the date again.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by coachv30

Once again...my mind is going on me......these last two are for Tuesday 5/12. Yes...I am officially the town idiot!! Wen to the site, clicked on what I thought was 5/11, never looked at the date again.

its ok dude...happens to the best of us..

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by coachv30

WRD 5/11

Race 4

In at a mile today for MCL15K

WON as the 9/5 Favorite.

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by coachv30

Hey Light....does this one meet your requirements?

-2 lengths out at wire two back
-Ran very even last our
- 2nd time out with new barn

20/1 on the ML

WRD 5/11

Race 5- 6F CLM5K

Disregard the bullet work...it was on 4/1

Horse ran very well into mid stretch at 10/1