Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-30-2018, 01:39 PM   #31
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
If the horse runs an uncharacteristically lackluster race last out, and you find no valid excuse for it...does this last race still account for 50% of your opinion on the horse? Or do you look at the horse's sharp PRIOR races...and skew the percentages in favor of the overall record?
If I can't find any reason at all to excuse the last race, I'll remain aware that he's still capable of firing his "A" race, but he'd be way less likely to do so than a horse whose last race was sharp.

So that would be built into my thinking about what the fair price is.

50% was just an arbitrary estimate I put out there to approximate reality. With any given horse it will be a little different depending on the specifics of that horse. But that's the general pattern of my thinking.

It works the same the other way around.

All else being equal, if one horse runs a 88 91 89 and then a 100 in his last race, unless I can explain that 100 and believe he can do it again, I'll take a 99 100, 99, 98 over him because of the better overall record. He might run back to that 100, but he's less likely to do it than the horse that's right around that level all the time.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-30-2018 at 01:44 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-30-2018, 01:46 PM   #32
coachv30
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
It is Tim Conway, the character is The Oldest Man In the World.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_set7Do_gg
That is Hilarious!!
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
coachv30 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-30-2018, 04:48 PM   #33
lefty359
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 736
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I may be wrong...but I recall Dick Schmidt posting on this very board that he used the horse's last "representative race" as a paceline 80+% of the time.
I don't doubt it but that's not what the Doc recommended.
lefty359 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-30-2018, 05:11 PM   #34
ultracapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
A couple weeks ago a horse ran that refused to change leads in the stretch. It was his 4th lifetime race, and in his previous 3 he had changed leads uneventfully. KentD was up, and was smacking hell out of his shoulder, begging the horse to switch. Horse finished 2nd, running the entire length of the stretch on the wrong lead. IMO he would have won if he would have gotten that little extra giddy up that switching leads gives them. I want to bet this horse next out, but I don't want to see that nonsense again, not with my money riding.

Which do I weight more? 3 previous stretch runs, or the most recent?
ultracapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-30-2018, 06:01 PM   #35
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
A couple weeks ago a horse ran that refused to change leads in the stretch. It was his 4th lifetime race, and in his previous 3 he had changed leads uneventfully. KentD was up, and was smacking hell out of his shoulder, begging the horse to switch. Horse finished 2nd, running the entire length of the stretch on the wrong lead. IMO he would have won if he would have gotten that little extra giddy up that switching leads gives them. I want to bet this horse next out, but I don't want to see that nonsense again, not with my money riding.

Which do I weight more? 3 previous stretch runs, or the most recent?
That depends on whether that caused him to run a lower figure. If not it would appear he can run well on any lead. Even if it cost him the horse has already shown it can change leads and probably will if needed next out. You also have to consider whether it's failure to win may be due to other factors such as declining form. Maybe the last race may have had a long run on the backstretch and the horse was still tired from being on the right lead and preferred staying on the left. Maybe Kent's whacking him repeatedly might have messed him up more than being on the "wrong" lead.
English jocks don't worry too much about horses changing leads. They figure if the horse is tired of being on one lead they'll switch on their own.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-30-2018, 06:06 PM   #36
aaron
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 1,264
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
That depends on whether that caused him to run a lower figure. If not it would appear he can run well on any lead. Even if it cost him the horse has already shown it can change leads and probably will if needed next out. You also have to consider whether it's failure to win may be due to other factors such as declining form. Maybe the last race may have had a long run on the backstretch and the horse was still tired from being on the right lead and preferred staying on the left. Maybe Kent's whacking him repeatedly might have messed him up more than being on the "wrong" lead.
English jocks don't worry too much about horses changing leads. They figure if the horse is tired of being on one lead they'll switch on their own.
I am certainly not an expert about horses changing leads, but if I remember correctly, there were races that Forego did not change leads.
aaron is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:21 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.