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07-23-2018, 08:40 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 526
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It is not an impossible problem problem to solve, it is an improbable one to solve. All the fancy algorithms and software aren’t going to figure out what the “crowd” is going to do in any one particular race. I have had horses that I have bet early figuring to get a decent price and they come back at $100. Surprise!
After looking through those almost one million races through the years, it is basically like any other endeavor, practice and just having the “guts” to just take a stab knowing most likely you are going to lose. Psychologically it is easier to to concentrate on the consistent winners than try to get a lot of long shots.
Also throw in the fact that there is a lot of unknowns, and you have a hard time getting anything consistent.
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07-23-2018, 09:06 AM
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#17
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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There must have been something that $150 horse computers liked....
Heres my LongShot system plays....
Code:
Data Summary Win Place Show
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Mutuel Totals 249.20 103.00 53.20
Bet -36.00 -36.00 -36.00
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P/L 213.20 67.00 17.20
Wins 5 7 7
Plays 18 18 18
PCT .2778 .3889 .3889
ROI 6.9222 2.8611 1.4778
Avg Mut 49.84 14.71 7.60
ODDS RES WIN PLACE SHOW DATE/Track/Race#/Surf/Dist HORSE/JOCKEY/TRAINER
026.80 out 7/22/2018 APX 4TH D FT BRAVE BENNY/ULLOA CARLOS JOAN/RODRIGUEZ EDUARDO
008.90 out 7/22/2018 APX 7TH O FT SILVER SAVER/VALDIVIA JR JOSE/JOHNS JUSTIN
007.60 2nd 5.40 7/22/2018 ARP 4TH D FT STARRY STARRY SKYS/LOPEZ KARLO/PARSONS RILEY
004.80 1st 11.60 5.60 2.20 7/22/2018 ARP 9TH D FT SALIDA DEL SOL/LOPEZ KARLO/GARRETT TY J
010.60 1st 23.20 8.60 4.00 7/22/2018 BTP 2ND D SY PERFECT COMIC/RADOSEVICH JACOB/SPICER JAMES T
022.90 out 7/22/2018 CBY 6TH T FM AVOREE NOEL/GONCALVES LEANDRO D/HEITZMANN ERIC L
074.00 1st 150.00 58.20 24.20 7/22/2018 DMR 4TH T FM KENTAN ROAD/ESPINOZA ASA/SADLER JOHN W
007.00 out 7/22/2018 ELP 1ST T FM LADY RUBI/CAMACHO JR SAMUEL/MACIAS ADOLFO
007.20 out 7/22/2018 EMD 3RD D FT EKKEHART/HENRY JR PATRICK/ESSEX CHARLES
002.00 2nd 2.20 5.60 7/22/2018 FMT 1ST D FT UNCONSCIOUS LUCK/MEDINA JOSE ANGEL/HARE JEARL ACE
055.30 out 7/22/2018 GPX 2ND D FT CANDY SUE/SEWELL ORAYNE/MANICKRAM MACELIN
010.50 3rd 6.00 7/22/2018 GPX 3RD D FT CUCKOO KENIA/CARMONA KEVIN/CROFT BARRY N
029.30 out 7/22/2018 GPX 11TH T FM EARLY DELIGH/GONZALES JONATHAN J/OCHOA GERARD
010.75 out 7/22/2018 HST 6TH D FT NEXT OTIS/GONZALEZ ENRIQUE ALO/CLOUTIER MARK
006.20 out 7/22/2018 MTH 4TH D SY CANDY BLU/DIAZ JR HECTOR RAFAE/OCONNELL KATHLEEN
011.10 1st 24.20 8.60 3.80 7/22/2018 MTH 6TH D SY GATAS APPLAUSE/DIAZ JR HECTOR RAFAE/POPOVICH JAMES A
019.10 1st 40.20 14.40 7.40 7/22/2018 SAC 6TH D FT SUNSET MELODY/HERNANDEZ JUAN J/STORTZ MARCIA
006.10 out 7/22/2018 SAR 8TH t FM QUEEN MUM/LEPAROUX JULIEN R/CASSE MARK E
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07-23-2018, 09:07 AM
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#18
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xtb
First you fart in his general direction, then ask him how he does it. Funny stuff.
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I didn't take it that way, actually.
And the fact that I am not looking at "races like this one" at the moment tends to discount much of the discussion.
Although I *DO* believe that very recent history can point to a higher than normal change of a large payout, as it may account for a track bias in play. True biases do tend to produce large prices.
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07-23-2018, 09:17 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 526
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
There must have been something that $150 horse computers liked....
Heres my LongShot system plays....
Code:
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 249.20 103.00 53.20
Bet -36.00 -36.00 -36.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L 213.20 67.00 17.20
Wins 5 7 7
Plays 18 18 18
PCT .2778 .3889 .3889
ROI 6.9222 2.8611 1.4778
Avg Mut 49.84 14.71 7.60
ODDS RES WIN PLACE SHOW DATE/Track/Race#/Surf/Dist HORSE/JOCKEY/TRAINER
026.80 out 7/22/2018 APX 4TH D FT BRAVE BENNY/ULLOA CARLOS JOAN/RODRIGUEZ EDUARDO
008.90 out 7/22/2018 APX 7TH O FT SILVER SAVER/VALDIVIA JR JOSE/JOHNS JUSTIN
007.60 2nd 5.40 7/22/2018 ARP 4TH D FT STARRY STARRY SKYS/LOPEZ KARLO/PARSONS RILEY
004.80 1st 11.60 5.60 2.20 7/22/2018 ARP 9TH D FT SALIDA DEL SOL/LOPEZ KARLO/GARRETT TY J
010.60 1st 23.20 8.60 4.00 7/22/2018 BTP 2ND D SY PERFECT COMIC/RADOSEVICH JACOB/SPICER JAMES T
022.90 out 7/22/2018 CBY 6TH T FM AVOREE NOEL/GONCALVES LEANDRO D/HEITZMANN ERIC L
074.00 1st 150.00 58.20 24.20 7/22/2018 DMR 4TH T FM KENTAN ROAD/ESPINOZA ASA/SADLER JOHN W
007.00 out 7/22/2018 ELP 1ST T FM LADY RUBI/CAMACHO JR SAMUEL/MACIAS ADOLFO
007.20 out 7/22/2018 EMD 3RD D FT EKKEHART/HENRY JR PATRICK/ESSEX CHARLES
002.00 2nd 2.20 5.60 7/22/2018 FMT 1ST D FT UNCONSCIOUS LUCK/MEDINA JOSE ANGEL/HARE JEARL ACE
055.30 out 7/22/2018 GPX 2ND D FT CANDY SUE/SEWELL ORAYNE/MANICKRAM MACELIN
010.50 3rd 6.00 7/22/2018 GPX 3RD D FT CUCKOO KENIA/CARMONA KEVIN/CROFT BARRY N
029.30 out 7/22/2018 GPX 11TH T FM EARLY DELIGH/GONZALES JONATHAN J/OCHOA GERARD
010.75 out 7/22/2018 HST 6TH D FT NEXT OTIS/GONZALEZ ENRIQUE ALO/CLOUTIER MARK
006.20 out 7/22/2018 MTH 4TH D SY CANDY BLU/DIAZ JR HECTOR RAFAE/OCONNELL KATHLEEN
011.10 1st 24.20 8.60 3.80 7/22/2018 MTH 6TH D SY GATAS APPLAUSE/DIAZ JR HECTOR RAFAE/POPOVICH JAMES A
019.10 1st 40.20 14.40 7.40 7/22/2018 SAC 6TH D FT SUNSET MELODY/HERNANDEZ JUAN J/STORTZ MARCIA
006.10 out 7/22/2018 SAR 8TH t FM QUEEN MUM/LEPAROUX JULIEN R/CASSE MARK E
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Basically those long shots look like those low price horses. Nothing mysterious
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07-23-2018, 11:20 AM
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#20
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasone
Basically those long shots look like those low price horses. Nothing mysterious
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Please explain..maybe I can make it better...
Mike
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07-23-2018, 12:05 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,396
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Nice hit, I have been betting horses for 43 years and only had a $100 winner once that I win bet and he paid $102 if my memory serves me correctly.
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07-23-2018, 12:09 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I didn't take it that way, actually.
And the fact that I am not looking at "races like this one" at the moment tends to discount much of the discussion.
Although I *DO* believe that very recent history can point to a higher than normal change of a large payout, as it may account for a track bias in play. True biases do tend to produce large prices.
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And this horse was on a track that was favoring early running styles and had ran on of his top speed figures on the turf. But, that is said in hindsight and was not noticed by me before the race. All in all, a nice pick.
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07-23-2018, 01:17 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 526
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Basically those long shots come up as viable bets in many handicapping systems but are not bet for any number of reasons, a good percentage of the time I would guess because "somebody" must know something to not be betting the horse. A lot of these long shots go up in price at the last minute because of bettting on some other "really" good contender. All I can say.
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07-23-2018, 01:18 PM
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#24
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Mad as hell !
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Bridgeport, CT
Posts: 1,136
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Whatever happened to the 9/2 or bust system ?
https://web.archive.org/web/19991230...antage.com:80/
"$83.40 TOP CHOICE WINNER AT TURFWAY!
What a nice way to break out of the December slump eh? As if the $17 top choice winner in the 1st race at Turfway wasn't enough, the 9/2 Or Bust! plays hit a proverbial grand slam in the 8th race Thursday night when 40-1 shot SHOWMEDAMONIPETESKI (very appropriately named) stormed down the center of the Turfway strip to win by half a length. Up until Thursday, the 9/2 Or Bust plays had been in a serious slump, plunging the overall ROI, which had stood at over +40% on December 1st, down to +18% as of 12/15/1999 (this ROI figure represents all 9/2 Or Bust plays on record between October 1, 1999 and December 15, 1999).
The data is still posted on the 9/2 Or Bust! page if anyone cares to look at the card. Oh, and I gave the 40-1 shot out in the War Room to the 4 people who were there (Que, Glenny, Observer and a mystery Guest), so I do have witnesses! : ) "
Last edited by Nutz and Boltz; 07-23-2018 at 01:26 PM.
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07-23-2018, 01:31 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 526
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Please explain..maybe I can make it better...
Mike
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Well, you have it on your printout..what more do you need? Didn't get up to the window and take a shot? Not many like to bet a lot of losers......not a great way to make money. Just pointing out that these horses are not impossible. probably 80% of the time can see a reason for them winning...just not always a good reason to bet them.
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07-23-2018, 02:09 PM
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#26
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasone
Well, you have it on your printout..what more do you need? Didn't get up to the window and take a shot? Not many like to bet a lot of losers......not a great way to make money. Just pointing out that these horses are not impossible. probably 80% of the time can see a reason for them winning...just not always a good reason to bet them.
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In many races, there is a possible reason for 70-80% of the horses to win.
Very few people will bet a longshot , simply because it's an overlay. Betting 30 losers to cash at 40-1 does not appeal to human beings. Bots, who knows.
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07-23-2018, 02:43 PM
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#27
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Betting longshots in the range of 30-1+ will result to so long loosing streaks that will deprive even the largest bankrolls. I have a profitable model with an expected ROI of 1.06 which shows 20+ consecutive loses with a strike rating of over 20% and odds between 3-1 and 5-1. Imagine what would be the equivalent streak for a model that is targeting very highly priced bets.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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07-23-2018, 03:05 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 526
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Betting longshots in the range of 30-1+ will result to so long loosing streaks that will deprive even the largest bankrolls. I have a profitable model with an expected ROI of 1.06 which shows 20+ consecutive loses with a strike rating of over 20% and odds between 3-1 and 5-1. Imagine what would be the equivalent streak for a model that is targeting very highly priced bets.
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Way too much for even the biggest bankroll to want to count on. Should have more in the arsenal.
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07-23-2018, 03:15 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Betting longshots in the range of 30-1+ will result to so long loosing streaks that will deprive even the largest bankrolls. I have a profitable model with an expected ROI of 1.06 which shows 20+ consecutive loses with a strike rating of over 20% and odds between 3-1 and 5-1. Imagine what would be the equivalent streak for a model that is targeting very highly priced bets.
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agree, I have come to the same conclusion.
The sweet spot for me seems to be 4-1 to 10/1, i can usually hit around 15-20%, but even then I have gone 30-40 races without a win.
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07-23-2018, 03:44 PM
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#30
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,163
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My average mutuel hovers around $20 or slightly over...and my hit rate has been around 12%...my only aim is to improve this slightly...
My method certainly doesn't depend on triple digit winners...but it does get them every so often.
I actually prefer winners in the $40-$60 range...those are sweetest if you ask me.
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