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Old 07-23-2018, 08:40 AM   #16
vegasone
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It is not an impossible problem problem to solve, it is an improbable one to solve. All the fancy algorithms and software aren’t going to figure out what the “crowd” is going to do in any one particular race. I have had horses that I have bet early figuring to get a decent price and they come back at $100. Surprise!

After looking through those almost one million races through the years, it is basically like any other endeavor, practice and just having the “guts” to just take a stab knowing most likely you are going to lose. Psychologically it is easier to to concentrate on the consistent winners than try to get a lot of long shots.
Also throw in the fact that there is a lot of unknowns, and you have a hard time getting anything consistent.
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Old 07-23-2018, 09:06 AM   #17
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There must have been something that $150 horse computers liked....

Heres my LongShot system plays....

Code:
 Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
     -----------------------------------------------------
     Mutuel Totals      249.20        103.00         53.20
     Bet                -36.00        -36.00        -36.00
     -----------------------------------------------------
     P/L                213.20         67.00         17.20

     Wins                    5             7             7
     Plays                  18            18            18
     PCT                 .2778         .3889         .3889

     ROI                6.9222        2.8611        1.4778
     Avg Mut             49.84         14.71          7.60


     ODDS   RES     WIN   PLACE    SHOW  DATE/Track/Race#/Surf/Dist HORSE/JOCKEY/TRAINER
     026.80 out                          7/22/2018 APX 4TH  D  FT BRAVE BENNY/ULLOA CARLOS JOAN/RODRIGUEZ EDUARDO
     008.90 out                          7/22/2018 APX 7TH  O  FT SILVER SAVER/VALDIVIA JR JOSE/JOHNS JUSTIN
     007.60 2nd            5.40          7/22/2018 ARP 4TH  D  FT STARRY STARRY SKYS/LOPEZ KARLO/PARSONS RILEY
     004.80 1st   11.60    5.60    2.20  7/22/2018 ARP 9TH  D  FT SALIDA DEL SOL/LOPEZ KARLO/GARRETT TY J
     010.60 1st   23.20    8.60    4.00  7/22/2018 BTP 2ND  D  SY PERFECT COMIC/RADOSEVICH JACOB/SPICER JAMES T
     022.90 out                          7/22/2018 CBY 6TH  T  FM AVOREE NOEL/GONCALVES LEANDRO D/HEITZMANN ERIC L
     074.00 1st  150.00   58.20   24.20  7/22/2018 DMR 4TH  T  FM KENTAN ROAD/ESPINOZA ASA/SADLER JOHN W
     007.00 out                          7/22/2018 ELP 1ST  T  FM LADY RUBI/CAMACHO JR SAMUEL/MACIAS ADOLFO
     007.20 out                          7/22/2018 EMD 3RD  D  FT EKKEHART/HENRY JR PATRICK/ESSEX CHARLES
     002.00 2nd            2.20    5.60  7/22/2018 FMT 1ST  D  FT UNCONSCIOUS LUCK/MEDINA JOSE ANGEL/HARE JEARL ACE
     055.30 out                          7/22/2018 GPX 2ND  D  FT CANDY SUE/SEWELL ORAYNE/MANICKRAM MACELIN
     010.50 3rd                    6.00  7/22/2018 GPX 3RD  D  FT CUCKOO KENIA/CARMONA KEVIN/CROFT BARRY N
     029.30 out                          7/22/2018 GPX 11TH T  FM EARLY DELIGH/GONZALES JONATHAN J/OCHOA GERARD
     010.75 out                          7/22/2018 HST 6TH  D  FT NEXT OTIS/GONZALEZ ENRIQUE ALO/CLOUTIER MARK
     006.20 out                          7/22/2018 MTH 4TH  D  SY CANDY BLU/DIAZ JR HECTOR RAFAE/OCONNELL KATHLEEN
     011.10 1st   24.20    8.60    3.80  7/22/2018 MTH 6TH  D  SY GATAS APPLAUSE/DIAZ JR HECTOR RAFAE/POPOVICH JAMES A
     019.10 1st   40.20   14.40    7.40  7/22/2018 SAC 6TH  D  FT SUNSET MELODY/HERNANDEZ JUAN J/STORTZ MARCIA
     006.10 out                          7/22/2018 SAR 8TH  t  FM QUEEN MUM/LEPAROUX JULIEN R/CASSE MARK E
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Old 07-23-2018, 09:07 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xtb View Post
First you fart in his general direction, then ask him how he does it. Funny stuff.
I didn't take it that way, actually.

And the fact that I am not looking at "races like this one" at the moment tends to discount much of the discussion.

Although I *DO* believe that very recent history can point to a higher than normal change of a large payout, as it may account for a track bias in play. True biases do tend to produce large prices.
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Old 07-23-2018, 09:17 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
There must have been something that $150 horse computers liked....

Heres my LongShot system plays....

Code:
 Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
     -----------------------------------------------------
     Mutuel Totals      249.20        103.00         53.20
     Bet                -36.00        -36.00        -36.00
     -----------------------------------------------------
     P/L                213.20         67.00         17.20

     Wins                    5             7             7
     Plays                  18            18            18
     PCT                 .2778         .3889         .3889

     ROI                6.9222        2.8611        1.4778
     Avg Mut             49.84         14.71          7.60


     ODDS   RES     WIN   PLACE    SHOW  DATE/Track/Race#/Surf/Dist HORSE/JOCKEY/TRAINER
     026.80 out                          7/22/2018 APX 4TH  D  FT BRAVE BENNY/ULLOA CARLOS JOAN/RODRIGUEZ EDUARDO
     008.90 out                          7/22/2018 APX 7TH  O  FT SILVER SAVER/VALDIVIA JR JOSE/JOHNS JUSTIN
     007.60 2nd            5.40          7/22/2018 ARP 4TH  D  FT STARRY STARRY SKYS/LOPEZ KARLO/PARSONS RILEY
     004.80 1st   11.60    5.60    2.20  7/22/2018 ARP 9TH  D  FT SALIDA DEL SOL/LOPEZ KARLO/GARRETT TY J
     010.60 1st   23.20    8.60    4.00  7/22/2018 BTP 2ND  D  SY PERFECT COMIC/RADOSEVICH JACOB/SPICER JAMES T
     022.90 out                          7/22/2018 CBY 6TH  T  FM AVOREE NOEL/GONCALVES LEANDRO D/HEITZMANN ERIC L
     074.00 1st  150.00   58.20   24.20  7/22/2018 DMR 4TH  T  FM KENTAN ROAD/ESPINOZA ASA/SADLER JOHN W
     007.00 out                          7/22/2018 ELP 1ST  T  FM LADY RUBI/CAMACHO JR SAMUEL/MACIAS ADOLFO
     007.20 out                          7/22/2018 EMD 3RD  D  FT EKKEHART/HENRY JR PATRICK/ESSEX CHARLES
     002.00 2nd            2.20    5.60  7/22/2018 FMT 1ST  D  FT UNCONSCIOUS LUCK/MEDINA JOSE ANGEL/HARE JEARL ACE
     055.30 out                          7/22/2018 GPX 2ND  D  FT CANDY SUE/SEWELL ORAYNE/MANICKRAM MACELIN
     010.50 3rd                    6.00  7/22/2018 GPX 3RD  D  FT CUCKOO KENIA/CARMONA KEVIN/CROFT BARRY N
     029.30 out                          7/22/2018 GPX 11TH T  FM EARLY DELIGH/GONZALES JONATHAN J/OCHOA GERARD
     010.75 out                          7/22/2018 HST 6TH  D  FT NEXT OTIS/GONZALEZ ENRIQUE ALO/CLOUTIER MARK
     006.20 out                          7/22/2018 MTH 4TH  D  SY CANDY BLU/DIAZ JR HECTOR RAFAE/OCONNELL KATHLEEN
     011.10 1st   24.20    8.60    3.80  7/22/2018 MTH 6TH  D  SY GATAS APPLAUSE/DIAZ JR HECTOR RAFAE/POPOVICH JAMES A
     019.10 1st   40.20   14.40    7.40  7/22/2018 SAC 6TH  D  FT SUNSET MELODY/HERNANDEZ JUAN J/STORTZ MARCIA
     006.10 out                          7/22/2018 SAR 8TH  t  FM QUEEN MUM/LEPAROUX JULIEN R/CASSE MARK E



Basically those long shots look like those low price horses. Nothing mysterious
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Old 07-23-2018, 11:20 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasone View Post
Basically those long shots look like those low price horses. Nothing mysterious
Please explain..maybe I can make it better...

Mike
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Old 07-23-2018, 12:05 PM   #21
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Nice hit, I have been betting horses for 43 years and only had a $100 winner once that I win bet and he paid $102 if my memory serves me correctly.
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Old 07-23-2018, 12:09 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I didn't take it that way, actually.

And the fact that I am not looking at "races like this one" at the moment tends to discount much of the discussion.

Although I *DO* believe that very recent history can point to a higher than normal change of a large payout, as it may account for a track bias in play. True biases do tend to produce large prices.

And this horse was on a track that was favoring early running styles and had ran on of his top speed figures on the turf. But, that is said in hindsight and was not noticed by me before the race. All in all, a nice pick.
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Old 07-23-2018, 01:17 PM   #23
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Basically those long shots come up as viable bets in many handicapping systems but are not bet for any number of reasons, a good percentage of the time I would guess because "somebody" must know something to not be betting the horse. A lot of these long shots go up in price at the last minute because of bettting on some other "really" good contender. All I can say.
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Old 07-23-2018, 01:18 PM   #24
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Whatever happened to the 9/2 or bust system ?

https://web.archive.org/web/19991230...antage.com:80/


"$83.40 TOP CHOICE WINNER AT TURFWAY!

What a nice way to break out of the December slump eh? As if the $17 top choice winner in the 1st race at Turfway wasn't enough, the 9/2 Or Bust! plays hit a proverbial grand slam in the 8th race Thursday night when 40-1 shot SHOWMEDAMONIPETESKI (very appropriately named) stormed down the center of the Turfway strip to win by half a length. Up until Thursday, the 9/2 Or Bust plays had been in a serious slump, plunging the overall ROI, which had stood at over +40% on December 1st, down to +18% as of 12/15/1999 (this ROI figure represents all 9/2 Or Bust plays on record between October 1, 1999 and December 15, 1999).

The data is still posted on the 9/2 Or Bust! page if anyone cares to look at the card. Oh, and I gave the 40-1 shot out in the War Room to the 4 people who were there (Que, Glenny, Observer and a mystery Guest), so I do have witnesses! : ) "

Last edited by Nutz and Boltz; 07-23-2018 at 01:26 PM.
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Old 07-23-2018, 01:31 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
Please explain..maybe I can make it better...

Mike
Well, you have it on your printout..what more do you need? Didn't get up to the window and take a shot? Not many like to bet a lot of losers......not a great way to make money. Just pointing out that these horses are not impossible. probably 80% of the time can see a reason for them winning...just not always a good reason to bet them.
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Old 07-23-2018, 02:09 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by vegasone View Post
Well, you have it on your printout..what more do you need? Didn't get up to the window and take a shot? Not many like to bet a lot of losers......not a great way to make money. Just pointing out that these horses are not impossible. probably 80% of the time can see a reason for them winning...just not always a good reason to bet them.



In many races, there is a possible reason for 70-80% of the horses to win.


Very few people will bet a longshot , simply because it's an overlay. Betting 30 losers to cash at 40-1 does not appeal to human beings. Bots, who knows.
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Old 07-23-2018, 02:43 PM   #27
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Betting longshots in the range of 30-1+ will result to so long loosing streaks that will deprive even the largest bankrolls. I have a profitable model with an expected ROI of 1.06 which shows 20+ consecutive loses with a strike rating of over 20% and odds between 3-1 and 5-1. Imagine what would be the equivalent streak for a model that is targeting very highly priced bets.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:05 PM   #28
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Betting longshots in the range of 30-1+ will result to so long loosing streaks that will deprive even the largest bankrolls. I have a profitable model with an expected ROI of 1.06 which shows 20+ consecutive loses with a strike rating of over 20% and odds between 3-1 and 5-1. Imagine what would be the equivalent streak for a model that is targeting very highly priced bets.



Way too much for even the biggest bankroll to want to count on. Should have more in the arsenal.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:15 PM   #29
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Betting longshots in the range of 30-1+ will result to so long loosing streaks that will deprive even the largest bankrolls. I have a profitable model with an expected ROI of 1.06 which shows 20+ consecutive loses with a strike rating of over 20% and odds between 3-1 and 5-1. Imagine what would be the equivalent streak for a model that is targeting very highly priced bets.
agree, I have come to the same conclusion.

The sweet spot for me seems to be 4-1 to 10/1, i can usually hit around 15-20%, but even then I have gone 30-40 races without a win.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:44 PM   #30
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My average mutuel hovers around $20 or slightly over...and my hit rate has been around 12%...my only aim is to improve this slightly...

My method certainly doesn't depend on triple digit winners...but it does get them every so often.

I actually prefer winners in the $40-$60 range...those are sweetest if you ask me.
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