HONG KONG PRE-Race TOTE Analysis

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Maybe in your world!
But WOW! You really have no clue as to what I was referring to!?

It’s actually quite simple, but please give it some deep concentrated thought.
Here goes:
1) You know (in advance – based on historical data) that you’re only hitting at a 50% rate.
2) You’ve already hit 50% of the races on the card (or reached a predetermined monetary goal)
3) Then why not take a statistical advantage and refrain from playing the remaining races on the card?

I hope my explanation isn’t too advanced for your comprehension level!
In any case please do me a favor and don’t reply. I’ll give you the benefit of doubt that you were able to unravel this big mystery.

I play Red/Black roulette , win and I never go back. same thing PAL.

I'll ask my Mathematical degree PH'd co-workers about your ad-hoc pattern recognition system over lunch tomorrow.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Maybe in your world!
But WOW! You really have no clue as to what I was referring to!?

It’s actually quite simple, but please give it some deep concentrated thought.
Here goes:
1) You know (in advance – based on historical data) that you’re only hitting at a 50% rate.
2) You’ve already hit 50% of the races on the card (or reached a predetermined monetary goal)
3) Then why not take a statistical advantage and refrain from playing the remaining races on the card?

I hope my explanation isn’t too advanced for your comprehension level!
In any case please do me a favor and don’t reply. I’ll give you the benefit of doubt that you were able to unravel this big mystery.

Nitro, one point you are ignoring is that while you may hit roughly 50% over a large sample, the lower the odds of the horses you bet in a given race the higher the hit rate will be long term. By the same token the lower the prices the lower the hit race. So in races that the live money shows up on a 7-1 a 12-1 and a 20-1 there is not a chance in the world you have anywhere near a 50% chance of winning. By the same token in races where you come up with an 8-5, a 4-1 and a 6-1, you likely will hit over 67% of the time.


As far as quitting the rest of the card because you reached a certain number of winners that is silly. Each race is an independent event. At a 50% hit rate there will be days you win 9 out of 10 and days you win 1 out of 10 while typically you will win 4 to 6 races. If I am a professional football bettor and I go 5-0 over the weekend and my best play is Monday night, should I not bet it? According to you, yes. Not betting it, simply put, is opportunity lost.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Nitro, one point you are ignoring is that while you may hit roughly 50% over a large sample, the lower the odds of the horses you bet in a given race the higher the hit rate will be long term. By the same token the lower the prices the lower the hit race. So in races that the live money shows up on a 7-1 a 12-1 and a 20-1 there is not a chance in the world you have anywhere near a 50% chance of winning. By the same token in races where you come up with an 8-5, a 4-1 and a 6-1, you likely will hit over 67% of the time.

As far as quitting the rest of the card because you reached a certain number of winners that is silly. Each race is an independent event. At a 50% hit rate there will be days you win 9 out of 10 and days you win 1 out of 10 while typically you will win 4 to 6 races. If I am a professional football bettor and I go 5-0 over the weekend and my best play is Monday night, should I not bet it? According to you, yes. Not betting it, simply put, is opportunity lost.

Poindexter, I admire your attempt to circumvent common sense when it comes to the logic of what I proposed. Unfortunately, your entire argument contradicts itself.

In the leading paragraph, you claim that by using 3 entries with much higher odds that someone would have nowhere near a 50% chance of winning versus that of using 3 entries with lower odds.

In the final paragraph, you consider it "silly" to quit at a certain point (as I suggested) because you claim “each race is an independent event”. You seem to first of all completely ignore the fact that while they may be “independent”, they are in fact non-identical events (such as identical events like flipping a coin or spinning a wheel) by any stretch of the imagination. (Even yours)

But what really amazes me is that you seem to recognize the degree of probability of loss when in comes to using entries with higher odds. Yet, you completely fail to acknowledge that the remaining races on any card will in all likelihood also present varying odds which or may not put you into that situation; where as you so eloquently put it “there’s is not a chance in the world you have anywhere near a 50% chance of winning.”

So to make this a bit easier to digest, I’ll submit a simple example based on reality:
1) We’re facing a 10 race card.
2) 7 races have already been run and we’ve been fortunate enough to already hit 5 of them and have accumulated and nice Profit margin.
3) At this point we realize that we’ve already reached our known historical hit frequency of 50%.
4) There are 3 races remaining each with big fields, varying distances, different entries and of course a wide span of varying odds value.
5) 8th race and its decision time. Do we play this race? We see that the odds on our 3 selections to be Dutched are relatively high. With those odds our probabilities of winning are "nowhere near 50%". No, let’s be “silly” and pass and hold on to our previous winnings.
6) 9th race and its decision time again. Do we play this race? But why if we know that in spite of the relatively low odds of our 3 selections to be Dutched, that we’ve only hit 20% of the races at today’s distance of 1800M on the turf. No, let’s be “silly” and pass and hold on to our previous winnings.
7) 10th race and its decision time again. As things would have it one of our low odds selections won the 9th race, but there wasn’t much profit to be had anyway. Now we’re in a real dilemma! We’ve technically hit 6 out of the first 9 races. The odds on the 3 entries selected to be Dutched are not too high and not too low and we’ve hit 40% of the races at today’s distance of 1200M on the turf. Now, realizing that we’ve already hit at a 67% rate and beyond our norm of 50%, let’s be “silly” once again and pass and hold on to our previous winnings.

Moral of the logic is that passing can be just as rewarding as hitting especially when you take into account all of the conditions you’re facing. Silly isn’t it to pass on an theoretical opportunity, when it may not even be there to begin with!?

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

nitro are you able to down load the hk tote board into excel.

I'm not able to do so.

I would like to try my program out using the pre-race tote board

yea!! I did it

[Poindexter]

I stand by my prior post. Absolutely not contradiction at all. But hey, if you are happy with your approach, that works for me. Whatever fills your wallet.

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 15 race days in HK and ALL 135 races.
It reveals the following about the Early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 48 % w/Early picks (68% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $9,448 Bet w/a Net Profit of $3,314 and Profit margin of 35%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 48% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 race so far).
5) Considering the 48% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

BTW today’s results proves out this common sense betting approach.
Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley Wed 11/9/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=134521

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

 
TK	DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L	T-BET$	T-PRF$	T-PRF%
HV	9/21	1800 T	43	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 			310	66 	21%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 			872	286 	33%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	9/28	1650 T	49	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 			705	294 	42%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)	933	360 	39%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/5	1800 T	52	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 			585	286 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 			659	319 	48%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/12	1650 T	98	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 			646	139 	22%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/16	1000 T	60	30 	1600 T	82	58 	1400 T	111	177 	1200 T	82	82 	1400 T 	73	(73)	1600 T	62	(62)	1800 T	100	170 	1200 T	100	110 	1400 T	72	90 	1000 T	60	(60)	1400 T	150	114 	952	636 	67%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/19	1000 T	51	(51)	1200 T	51	(51)	1200 T	83	(83)	1200 T	71	204 	1650 T	34	(34)	1650 T	48	(48)	1200 T	75	61 	1200 T	30	(30)	 			 			 			443	(32)	-7%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/23	1200 D	51	86 	1200 T	56	(56)	1400 T	101	379 	1400 T	57	(57)	1200 D	55	(55)	1200 T	56	48 	1200 T	59	(59)	1600 T	61	(61)	1600 T	94	(94)	1800 T	114	(114)	 			704	17 	2%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/26	1200 T	26	(26)	1650 T	78	90 	1650 T	82	86 	1000 T	0	0 	2200 T	39	(39)	1650 T	66	51 	1000 T	47	(47)	1650 T	47	(47)	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	385	68 	15%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/30	1650 T	54	48 	1800 T	61	(61)	1200 T	54	(54)	1650 T	38	(38)	1200 T	54	(54)	1650 T	43	(43)	1650 T	79	91 	1200 T	80	104 	1800 T	54	120 	1200 T	46	79 	 	 	 	563	192 	34%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	11/2	1200 D	66	(66)	1200 D	65	(65)	1650 D	59	(59)	1200 D	55	116 	1200 D	84	116 	1800 D	59	(59)	1200 D	78	123 	1650 D	44	(44)	 			 			 			510	62 	12%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	11/6	1400 T	59	50 	1200 T	41	(41)	1400 T	38	(38)	1200 T	50	(50)	1000 T	46	(46)	1600 T	60	(60)	1400 T	86	116 	1800 T	97	372 	1400 T	50	(50)	1400 T	34	(34)	1400 T	58	87 	619	306 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	11/9	1000 T	54	(54)	1650 T	73	129 	1650 T	62	62 	1200 T	95	333 	1200 T	83	(83)	1800 T	64	59 	1200 T	52	(52)	1200 T	79	(79)	 			 			 			562	315 	49%
  

[Nitro]

Apparently, there are some who believe that each racing event should be treated as an independent betting event when looking at statistical data. Well, this might be possible if each race were identical in every respect (like flipping a coin). However, I think most would agree that from race-to-race there are numerous differences which could impact how we view and utilize statistical data to our benefit.

As I’ve been posting previously, the 3-entry Dutching approach with the Early picks has had a success hit rate of about 50%. I had suggested that if you can hit enough of the early races on any card (50% of races carded) that it would probably be worthwhile (monetarily) to refrain from playing the remaining races.

So, I wanted to further this basic concept by showing a Hit Chart by Distance covering ALL 135 races. I use this to evaluate whether a play should be made or not. I can also use this for the early races when I’m playing Live to sometimes determine the size of my bet. This Efficiency Report Card so to speak allows me to see how well the static tote analysis is doing at various race distances.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

 
1000	P$(L)	1200	P$(L)	1200	P$(L)	1400	P$(L)	1400	P$(L)	1600	P$(L)	1600	P$(L)	1650	P$(L)	1650	P$(L)	1800	P$(L)	1800	P$(L)	2200	P$(L)
TURF		TURF		AWT		TURF		AWT		TURF		AWT		TURF		AWT		TURF		AWT		TURF	
9/28	(77)	9/21	20 	9/25	151 	9/25	350 	 		9/25	34 	 		9/21	(30)	10/8	(46)	9/21	(43)	11/2	(59)	10/26	(39)
10/1	51 	9/21	48 	9/25	95 	9/25	(45)	 		9/25	(70)	 		9/21	31 	11/2	(59)	9/21	22 	 	0%	 	0%
10/8	72 	9/21	33 	10/23	86 	9/25	111 	 		10/1	(33)	 		9/28	67 	11/2	(44)	9/28	(154)	 		 	
10/12	(38)	9/21	47 	10/23	(55)	10/1	90 	 		10/8	(59)	 		9/28	262 	 	0%	10/1	111 	 		 	
10/16	30 	9/25	(57)	11/2	(66)	10/1	(76)	 		10/16	58 	 		9/28	(100)	 		10/5	(52)	 		 	
10/16	(60)	9/25	(149)	11/2	(65)	10/1	217 	 		10/16	(62)	 		10/5	64 	 		10/12	(75)	 		 	
10/19	(51)	9/25	56 	11/2	116 	10/8	143 	 		10/23	(61)	 		10/5	149 	 		10/16	170 	 		 	
10/26	(47)	9/28	270 	11/2	116 	10/8	196 	 		10/23	(94)	 		10/5	(65)	 		10/23	(114)	 		 	
11/6	(46)	9/28	68 	11/2	123 	10/16	177 	 		11/6	(60)	 		10/8	(42)	 		10/30	(61)	 		 	
11/9	(54)	9/28	(42)	 	67%	10/16	(73)	 		 	22%	 		10/12	100 	 		10/30	120 	 		 	
 	30%	10/1	(71)	 		10/16	90 	 		 		 		10/12	64 	 		11/6	372 	 		 	
 		10/1	58 	 		10/16	114 	 		 		 		10/12	167 	 		11/9	59 	 		 	
 		10/1	177 	 		10/23	379 	 		 		 		10/19	(34)	 		 	50%	 		 	
 		10/1	(66)	 		10/23	(57)	 		 		 		10/19	(48)	 		 		 		 	
 		10/5	(58)	 		11/6	50 	 		 		 		10/26	90 	 		 		 		 	
 		10/5	46 	 		11/6	(38)	 		 		 		10/26	86 	 		 		 		 	
 		10/5	118 	 		11/6	116 	 		 		 		10/26	51 	 		 		 		 	
 		10/5	84 	 		11/6	(50)	 		 		 		10/26	(47)	 		 		 		 	
 		10/8	58 	 		11/6	(34)	 		 		 		10/30	48 	 		 		 		 	
 		10/8	118 	 		11/6	87 	 		 		 		10/30	(38)	 		 		 		 	
 		10/8	(75)	 		 	65%	 		 		 		10/30	(43)	 		 		 		 	
 		10/8	(46)	 		 		 		 		 		10/30	91 	 		 		 		 	
 		10/12	96 	 		 		 		 		 		11/9	129 	 		 		 		 	
 		10/12	(86)	 		 		 		 		 		11/9	62 	 		 		 		 	
 		10/12	(89)	 		 		 		 		 		 	63%	 		 		 		 	
 		10/16	82 	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/16	110 	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/19	(51)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/19	(83)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/19	204 	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/19	61 	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/19	(30)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/23	(56)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/23	48	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/23	(59)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/26	(26)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/30	(54)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/30	104 	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		10/30	79 	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		11/6	(41)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		11/6	(50)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		11/9	333 	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		11/9	(83)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		11/9	(52)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		11/9	(79)	 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 		 	51% 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 		 	
 

[2low]

Nitro,

Would you not play the last race of a card just because you've had a winning day, even if the race is otherwise a good race to play?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by 2low

Nitro,

Would you not play the last race of a card just because you've had a winning day, even if the race is otherwise a good race to play?

Not only wouldn’t I play the last race, but maybe not even the last few races; if I’ve already hit 50% of the carded races. The odds of the 3 selected entries may be very high, meaning that there’s less of a chance of hitting even if the race distance efficiency looks decent. Hey, if I’ve already hit 50% of the races, why get greedy? My goal is not only to make a profit, it’s to maintain the profit I've accumulated. BTW I’m betting a lot more per race than my posted summaries indicate. They’re posted to simply illustrate a baseline of potential profitability when hitting at a certain rate when using a 3-entry Dutch betting approach.

[2low]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Not only wouldn’t I play the last race, but maybe not even the last few races; if I’ve already hit 50% of the carded races. The odds of the 3 selected entries may be very high, meaning that there’s less of a chance of hitting even if the race distance efficiency looks decent. Hey, if I’ve already hit 50% of the races, why get greedy? My goal is not only to make a profit, it’s to maintain the profit I've accumulated. BTW I’m betting a lot more per race than my posted summaries indicate. They’re posted to simply illustrate a baseline of potential profitability when hitting at a certain rate when using a 3-entry Dutch betting approach.

Interesting. So what do you figure is the difference between the last race or last few races today, and the first race or first few races tomorrow? there is always a next race to play that could wipe out profits from the last race played.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by 2low

Interesting. So what do you figure is the difference between the last race or last few races today, and the first race or first few races tomorrow? there is always a next race to play that could wipe out profits from the last race played.

The difference is that my bankroll has been increased with more profit “today” so that I now can proportionately increase my bets for “tomorrow”. Note that my posted Dutch betting results are static in terms of the bet sizing. In other words, there’s no bet size increase even though the bankroll has increased by over 30%. In reality, you would normally increase the bet size to accelerate profit.

If you understood any of the Updates that I’ve been posting for the last 15 days at HK, you’d clearly see that you’d have to lose quite a few races in sequence to “wipe out profits”.

[2low]

Originally Posted by Nitro

The difference is that my bankroll has been increased with more profit “today” so that I now can proportionately increase my bets for “tomorrow”. Note that my posted Dutch betting results are static in terms of the bet sizing. In other words, there’s no bet size increase even though the bankroll has increased by over 30%. In reality, you would normally increase the bet size to accelerate profit.

If you understood any of the Updates that I’ve been posting for the last 15 days at HK, you’d clearly see that you’d have to lose quite a few races in sequence to “wipe out profits”.

got it. thanks!

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 16 race days in HK and ALL 145 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 48 % w/Early picks (68% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $10,058 Bet w/a Net Profit of $3,780 and Profit margin of 38%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 48% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 so far).
5) Considering the 48% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

BTW today’s results prove out this common sense betting approach.
Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin Sat 11/12/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...3&page=1&pp=15

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

 
TK	DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L	T-BET$	T-PRF$	T-PRF%
HV	9/21	1800 T	43	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 			310	66 	21%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 			872	286 	33%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	9/28	1650 T	49	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 			705	294 	42%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)	933	360 	39%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/5	1800 T	52	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 			585	286 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 			659	319 	48%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/12	1650 T	98	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 			646	139 	22%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/16	1000 T	60	30 	1600 T	82	58 	1400 T	111	177 	1200 T	82	82 	1400 T 	73	(73)	1600 T	62	(62)	1800 T	100	170 	1200 T	100	110 	1400 T	72	90 	1000 T	60	(60)	1400 T	150	114 	952	636 	67%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/19	1000 T	51	(51)	1200 T	51	(51)	1200 T	83	(83)	1200 T	71	204 	1650 T	34	(34)	1650 T	48	(48)	1200 T	75	61 	1200 T	30	(30)	 			 			 			443	(32)	-7%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/23	1200 D	51	86 	1200 T	56	(56)	1400 T	101	379 	1400 T	57	(57)	1200 D	55	(55)	1200 T	56	48 	1200 T	59	(59)	1600 T	61	(61)	1600 T	94	(94)	1800 T	114	(114)	 			704	17 	2%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/26	1200 T	26	(26)	1650 T	78	90 	1650 T	82	86 	1000 T	0	0 	2200 T	39	(39)	1650 T	66	51 	1000 T	47	(47)	1650 T	47	(47)	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	385	68 	15%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/30	1650 T	54	48 	1800 T	61	(61)	1200 T	54	(54)	1650 T	38	(38)	1200 T	54	(54)	1650 T	43	(43)	1650 T	79	91 	1200 T	80	104 	1800 T	54	120 	1200 T	46	79 	 	 	 	563	192 	34%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	11/2	1200 D	66	(66)	1200 D	65	(65)	1650 D	59	(59)	1200 D	55	116 	1200 D	84	116 	1800 D	59	(59)	1200 D	78	123 	1650 D	44	(44)	 			 			 			510	62 	12%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	11/6	1400 T	59	50 	1200 T	41	(41)	1400 T	38	(38)	1200 T	50	(50)	1000 T	46	(46)	1600 T	60	(60)	1400 T	86	116 	1800 T	97	372 	1400 T	50	(50)	1400 T	34	(34)	1400 T	58	87 	619	306 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	11/9	1000 T	54	(54)	1650 T	73	129 	1650 T	62	62 	1200 T	95	333 	1200 T	83	(83)	1800 T	64	59 	1200 T	52	(52)	1200 T	79	(79)	 			 			 			562	315 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	11/12	2000 T	36	(36)	1200 T	54	39 	1650 D	57	99 	1400 T	66	51 	1650 D	98	70 	1400 T	47	(47)	1000 T	37	(37)	1400 T	46	(46)	1200 T	101	441 	1600 T	68	(68)	 			610	466 	76%
  

[formula_2002]

Nitro, I hope some day you will post an incremental odds analysis of your work.

the consistent results are impressive.
Although your bet size is based on the final tote board odds, the results are still impressive.

Looking at your 40 % winners on the last card, there was a flat bet loss of 39% but a dutch return of a positive 76%, even though that was largely due to 1 winner in the 9th race.

again, the consistent results are impressive. I pause to think if there is a larger application of your work aside from horse racing

continued success.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Nitro, I hope some day you will post an incremental odds analysis of your work.

I would like nothing more than to do that, but unfortunately that would give-a-way the secrets of the static tote system that’s been developed. Its benefits are obvious. Especially to those who understand the value of long term profits from a game which as you know are not always an easy task to maintain. The static tote analysis has worked out very well, and is a lead in for the Live analysis which has produced even better winning results.

Originally Posted by formula_2002

the consistent results are impressive.
Although your bet size is based on the final tote board odds, the results are still impressive.

The only reason I use the final odds with the Dutch calculator is to demonstrate the actual monetary results. This is so that no one can say that there’s any odds manipulation to produce inflated profits. To be honest when I play live I can acknowledge that only 10 to 15% of all the races in HK illustrate that the odds are affected by late money. However, these late odds changes have impacted my returns both ways and it seems to balance out when evaluating the overall profits. In most cases because the betting pools are so extraordinarily large, the odds are relatively stable when placing bets at 5 minutes to post.

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Looking at your 40 % winners on the last card, there was a flat bet loss of 39% but a dutch return of a positive 76%, even though that was largely due to 1 winner in the 9th race.

Actually the Early picks produced 5 out of 10 winning plays (50%) and we’re not making any “flat” bets at all, simply because Dutching has proven to be so lucrative. It’s funny you mentioned that 9th race, because it was the one race on the card that I pointed out on the HK thread that was the most difficult to predict. I never expected the odds of 2 of the selected entries to become 59/1 and 90/1! But I’ve learned to respect the tote analysis far too much to forgo such an enticing possibility.

Originally Posted by formula_2002

again, the consistent results are impressive. I pause to think if there is a larger application of your work aside from horse racing

continued success.

Thanks for your comments. It seems that you’re one of the few PA members who are willing to recognize the value of following the money as a means to succeed. I assume that’s because you’re involved in a similar methodology. Many of those who continue to handicap using traditional methods are fervent believers that some how or some way they will eventually eek out a real profit. Little do they realize that 95% of all players are long term losers. I personally feel that the biggest impediment that they face believe it or not is their own ego. That’s even exemplified here when some attempt to rationalize this Dutching play demonstration. They try to diminish its results because their own personal experiences cause them to be skeptical of anyone showing positive results. Little do they realize that I’m sharing this information as a limited opportunity for them to make some money. I won’t be doing this much longer because I spend more time preparing and updating the HK thread, then I do analyzing the Live races themselves. Besides I really have nothing to prove, and I realize most people aren’t interested in playing in the early morning hours anyway.

As far as expanding it for use in some other application, I’m not quite sure what that might be. But whatever it is, without the transparency of information I’m afraid it wouldn’t be of much value.

Best of luck with your own tote analysis.