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Old 11-07-2016, 06:53 PM   #46
ebcorde
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Have bet HK 2x this year. I'll look into it because

International week Dec 11th is the only thing to look forward to. Give me 1 month to study. I play Australia. HK and Japan way too late and way too many Horses. Aussie is perfect, sit in the bar and play races. And I don't take it serious

As for Programs


All I remember about HK is they do not win much from the backend at first call. or on the lead first call. That's what's good about speed map. And the rating system is pretty good, seems the best bets are Horses dropping that finished okay in the last race but not enough to remain at that class level. . (ie find a Horse last race in class 3 who finished 4th/5th and is dropping down to class 4). works for me.
I wish we had a class system like that here. 1 class/1 price.

And those Aussie announcers lose their shirts there picking Horses



Japan has a great stat for Trainers and Jockeys. They rank them by total win%. it helps. Because who follows the Jockeys there?

some Australia programs lists Horse MPH in 3 splits, that helps me. for short, long races. Speed map is okay too.
I like Punters.Au.
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:37 PM   #47
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Nitro I drew a comparison between your HK top 3 picks and my USA top 3 picks.


based on your average top three bet sizes, you would have to lose the next 75 races to break even,
I would need 17

your roi for the top three is 1.59, mine 1.04
since my three bet sizes are always normalized to 1, my max bet and min bet is always 1

my win % is 42%
I don't know what your top three win % is. (your overall is 48%)

I don't know what your max and min bet sizes are.
I have provided an attachment to give some explanation to the above

can you provide a flat bet roi for your top three picks

Thanks

Attached Files
File Type: xlsx nitro 11-06-2016.xlsx (27.3 KB, 16 views)
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Old 11-07-2016, 08:15 PM   #48
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I assume your top 3

picks all pay over $6 on a $2 bet?

and are you actually betting or is this play dough? not trying to be funny.

Last edited by ebcorde; 11-07-2016 at 08:17 PM.
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Old 11-07-2016, 11:37 PM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
Plus, there is the idea between bettors like yourself (who are seeking to interpret the motives of a presumed inside within the wheels of the tote) and the insiders themselves, that is, how much of any given betting shift is a product of the insiders' action, versus the "noise" of extra dollars added on to that shift once a selection is identified as being "live"...?
When you’re able get a handle on where the money is going and how its incrementally flowing (the Betting Patterns) the “noise” as you put it is just that and more often then not becomes inconsequential. This is especially true with the extremely large betting pools in HK.
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
Is there a danger that a normal shift in wagering might be read as "insider action" that begins a snowballing effect by persons such as yourself, that leads to more of the same false reading of the horses' real chances? This is probably why you wait until 4 min to post to bet....to reduce that effect.
This type of situation is definitely in play at the smaller tracks with limited sized betting pools. It’s real easy to get false readings, because the insiders know how to occasionally create enticing decoys that are then bet by those unaware of the other betting activities. This happens because once again the unsuspecting bettor is focusing on just the Odds (The Win pool). When in fact there’s lot’s of other activity taking place. Sometimes the Exacta pools (in the States) or Quniella pools (in HK) generate as much or more betting action as the Win pool!
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
But I'm thinking that in large enough pools, these shifts are tough to gauge and that is where the exacta will-pays come in....because insiders seek to maximize their gains in these pools, and for "action eyes" like yourself, these will-pays are really the only place where shifts can be reasonably distinguished...thus you and Formula2000 are students of the exacta pool will-pays primarily....and there is no way to see the entirety of these exacta pools matrix, and evaluate them at the same time, without a computer program that is able to do this in real time....this is well beyond the resources of the average bettor...so while you may be right about the insider method, very few of us on the outside are in a position to utilized it and benefit from it, ourselves....
Your thinking in terms of the betting pools is one-dimensional (At least from the standpoint of how the analysis I use works). From what I understand, it doesn’t gauge shifts, it basically examines and compares the action in all the pools with the individual entries simultaneously. It doesn’t focus on any single pool. But you’re right, I think for anyone it would be physically and mentally impossible to perform any type of satisfactory analysis in real time.

Even if I could I wouldn’t divulge the intricate workings of this analysis. I’m sure my mentor took no chances either by encrypting all of the proprietary stuff. However, that’s not to say I won’t continue to offer some selections like those shared on the HK threads. Anyone, can take advantage of making those Dutch win bets before the actual HK betting begins by using the HK tote board, because the early odds for all the races are there. Granted they won’t be as accurate as those close to post time, but using them with any 3-entry Dutch calculator will produce profits. Of course if you're like me and don't mind the early morning wagering then the actual odds are at your disposal.
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Old 11-07-2016, 11:55 PM   #50
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Very interesting.... Thank you for responding....I always learn a lot from you...and I do believe you are an altruistic person for sharing your selection s and other interesting information here on PA....keep on trucking....and I did notice that your selections performed well on BC day so your detractors can see for themselves.....thanks.
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Old 11-08-2016, 06:54 AM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebcorde
picks all pay over $6 on a $2 bet?

and are you actually betting or is this play dough? not trying to be funny.

thanks for the response


5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.


That makes no sense.
ex. if I have a 10% chance of hitting a race. In 20 bets .. I could lose the first 18, then hit Race 19, Race 20 ,no?

There was a guy on the net years ago that had an awesome ROI on long shots 30-1 and above based on top Owners, Trainer combinations win%. Daily , He updated his Database and provided queries ROI based on odds and Owners/Trainers..

The ROI was Huge.
But 2 problems
1. not enough Horses 30-1/50-1 with the right combo. maybe like 2-3 a month to play. But you hit 1
2. Few paying customers.


I always wanted to find out How he acquired the Owner stats for his database.
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Old 11-08-2016, 10:05 AM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebcorde
thanks for the response


5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.


That makes no sense.
ex. if I have a 10% chance of hitting a race. In 20 bets .. I could lose the first 18, then hit Race 19, Race 20 ,no?
You’re welcome! I normally try to avoid responding to ridiculous comments.

What you take as "making no sense" is apparently another flaw in your thinking. The “hit frequency” I mentioned is a proven historical commodity. It indicates that there’s 50% chance of producing a winning result. The next step is to naturally try to take advantage of that by possibly limiting play after specific goals are reached over the coarse of any given race card.

The whole idea is to improve the bottom line: Profit.
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Old 11-08-2016, 10:09 AM   #53
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nitro are you able to down load the hk tote board into excel.

I'm not able to do so.

I would like to try my program out using the pre-race tote board

Attached Images
File Type: jpg hk Capture.JPG (156.9 KB, 47 views)
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Old 11-08-2016, 11:28 AM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Nitro I drew a comparison between your HK top 3 picks and my USA top 3 picks.

based on your average top three bet sizes, you would have to lose the next 75 races to break even,
I would need 17

your roi for the top three is 1.59, mine 1.04
since my three bet sizes are always normalized to 1, my max bet and min bet is always 1

my win % is 42%
I don't know what your top three win % is. (your overall is 48%)

I don't know what your max and min bet sizes are.
I have provided an attachment to give some explanation to the above

can you provide a flat bet roi for your top three picks

Thanks

Formula I looked over your Excel comparison chart and I don’t quite understand your “normalization” process for evaluating a 3-entry Dutch type bet. Your process seems to reduce the ROI as well. As I mentioned previously, I let the Dutch calculator determine the amounts to be bet on each entry based on the odds value of the 3 selected entries. Once those amounts are known, I have the option of either multiplying or dividing those amounts by the same constant to maintain an overall equalized profit margin.

Although my Live tote analysis is currently producing a 67% hit frequency, I won’t provide my personal ROI or Profit margin, because I feel it would be somewhat like red-boarding. Besides, skeptics flourish on this forum and I have no desire to fuel their cynicism with what they consider delusions of grandeur. My take is that they’ve been losing so long that whenever they see success they question its veracity only because of their own unfortunate personal experiences.
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:57 PM   #55
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Formula I looked over your Excel comparison chart and I don’t quite understand your “normalization” process for evaluating a 3-entry Dutch type bet. Your process seems to reduce the ROI as well

the process goes like this;

say I have odds like 2-1, 4-1 and 6-1
the probabilities are .33, .25 and .17
that sums to .75

normalizing to .33/.75 =.44
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Old 11-08-2016, 01:24 PM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
You’re welcome! I normally try to avoid responding to ridiculous comments.

What you take as "making no sense" is apparently another flaw in your thinking. The “hit frequency” I mentioned is a proven historical commodity. It indicates that there’s 50% chance of producing a winning result. The next step is to naturally try to take advantage of that by possibly limiting play after specific goals are reached over the coarse of any given race card.

The whole idea is to improve the bottom line: Profit.

as soon as the INSULT appears, a sign of a crack in the argument.

From what mathematician did you derive your mathematical theory? I'd like to read about it.


if it was that easy I'd play red/black at the casino table. same idea in reverse, wait for 5-6 spins Black and bet red.... win go home. guess what? each spin has no relation to the previous spin.

Last edited by ebcorde; 11-08-2016 at 01:32 PM.
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Old 11-08-2016, 02:04 PM   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Formula I looked over your Excel comparison chart and I don’t quite understand your “normalization” process for evaluating a 3-entry Dutch type bet. Your process seems to reduce the ROI as well

the process goes like this;

say I have odds like 2-1, 4-1 and 6-1
the probabilities are .33, .25 and .17
that sums to .75

normalizing to .33/.75 =.44
pressed the "submit reply" to soon

see the attached for a better explanation.

it compares your dutch to my normalization. both of which accomplish the same roi should any pick wins.

the dutch returns $259 for a $69 play. a 3.75 factor
the normalization, 3.75 factor for a $1 play

Attached Images
File Type: jpg dutch normilizationCapture.JPG (59.2 KB, 39 views)
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Old 11-08-2016, 02:19 PM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebcorde

as soon as the INSULT appears, a sign of a crack in the argument.

From what mathematician did you derive your mathematical theory? I'd like to read about it.


if it was that easy I'd play red/black at the casino table. same idea in reverse, wait for 5-6 spins Black and bet red.... win go home. guess what? each spin has no relation to the previous spin.
take a look at this.

http://math.stackexchange.com/questi...times-in-a-row
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Old 11-08-2016, 02:21 PM   #59
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my question was not about Dutching, I get that.

it was quitting when you are ahead for the day. I understand you have a recognition pattern you like. Sorry for asking a question
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Old 11-08-2016, 02:41 PM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebcorde

as soon as the INSULT appears, a sign of a crack in the argument.

From what mathematician did you derive your mathematical theory? I'd like to read about it.


if it was that easy I'd play red/black at the casino table. same idea in reverse, wait for 5-6 spins Black and bet red.... win go home. guess what? each spin has no relation to the previous spin.
Maybe in your world!
But WOW! You really have no clue as to what I was referring to!?

It’s actually quite simple, but please give it some deep concentrated thought.
Here goes:
1) You know (in advance – based on historical data) that you’re only hitting at a 50% rate.
2) You’ve already hit 50% of the races on the card (or reached a predetermined monetary goal)
3) Then why not take a statistical advantage and refrain from playing the remaining races on the card?

I hope my explanation isn’t too advanced for your comprehension level!
In any case please do me a favor and don’t reply. I’ll give you the benefit of doubt that you were able to unravel this big mystery.
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