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03-11-2018, 04:06 PM
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#286
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLmVTr9hq8Q
This is EXACTLY why the game is floundering. Smart money has turned into Nostradamus.
It's incredible how often the late money is right on. You'll see a horse at 6-5 morning fluctuate between 3-5 and even money for 17 minutes. The last click he'll be 9-5 and a 7-2 morning line runner (who had been hovering around 3-1) is now 6-5 and wins by a football field.
I have no idea what type of nefarious behavior is giving the late money the edge but it is impossible for people to be THAT right using the same rudimentary data we all have. IM-POS-SIB-LE
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I have been retired now for a couple of years and watch about 100 races a week. YES, it is "jaw dropping" uncanny how the late money is right on. in summary the late money is 'prophetic".
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03-11-2018, 04:11 PM
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#287
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,290
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Quote:
Yes...but can we be sure that all 52 cards are in each deck?
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Of course all 52 cards are in each deck.
But the aces and the face cards needed for a blackjack when the count gets high?
Clumped together in a section of the deck that never gets dealt.
-jp
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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03-11-2018, 04:22 PM
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#288
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,552
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Of course all 52 cards are in each deck.
But the aces and the face cards needed for a blackjack when the count gets high?
Clumped together in a section of the deck that never gets dealt.
-jp
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No question about it...gambling is the hardest way to make an "easy buck".
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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03-11-2018, 04:24 PM
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#289
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 733
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Handicapping angle
Question: How do you know when your horse is poised for a solid effort.
Answer: When his odds drop DURING a race.
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03-11-2018, 04:32 PM
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#291
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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03-11-2018, 04:33 PM
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#292
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,290
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A few minutes ago in AQU R6 I bet the #3 horse facing up to the gate horse at 2-1.
During the race, while the #3 was tracking dueling leaders on the turn:
I noticed the odds had dropped to 4-5.
But sometimes the late money is not all knowing.
My rider, Dylan Davis, found traffic in the stretch, checked, and finished 3rd.
Think I got the worst of it twice. Late odds drop. Botched ride in the stretch.
-jp
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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03-11-2018, 04:33 PM
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#293
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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Aqu just now - 2 horse is 5-1 in the gate. 3-1 by the first call, 5-2 after that - not sure what he ended up at - wins by daylight while the 7 who was the big favorite all along off the board.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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03-11-2018, 04:53 PM
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#294
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Aqu just now - 2 horse is 5-1 in the gate. 3-1 by the first call, 5-2 after that - not sure what he ended up at - wins by daylight while the 7 who was the big favorite all along off the board.
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Paid $7.90
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03-11-2018, 04:59 PM
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#295
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 845
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
The screen shots are of today's 8th at GS. One is taken about the start of the first turn, the second is taken at about the second call. Check out how much money still gets put in the pool between 24 and 49 seconds into the race.
Attachment 21569
Attachment 21570
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Are you claiming that there was past posting?
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03-11-2018, 05:04 PM
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#296
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryBoyle
Are you claiming that there was past posting?
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I am posting this information, not making any accusations. For a tote company that boasts that it can process 70,000 transactions per second, this seems to be a very long time to get all the money into the win pool.
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03-11-2018, 06:53 PM
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#297
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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One other thing, add the win pools for each horse, the total comes to $241,525. Almost $15,000 is unaccounted for.
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03-11-2018, 07:37 PM
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#298
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
One other thing, add the win pools for each horse, the total comes to $241,525. Almost $15,000 is unaccounted for.
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My bad, found my error.
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03-11-2018, 08:15 PM
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#299
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Happening in exactas too.
Bet one that was paying $11 right before the start.
Paid $7.60.
Might have to drop Win, Exacta, and DD's too.
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03-12-2018, 10:08 PM
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#300
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
It is pretty obvious, the big CRW teams are making a killing on the backs of the smaller players at GP. That is why the handle is so big. Why the smaller players continue to bet the place I can't say.
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I have a feeling that these CRW teams are the reason for the sudden post time changes at Santa Anita to 12pm Thur/Fri/Sat and 11:30am on Sundays. Even the racing office knew nothing about it until it was announced!
Only thing that makes sense is that its too long of a day for these CRW teams between GP and SA. I still have no idea how it is legal for the Stronach Group to own the race tracks and the tote company.
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