Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I'm sure it makes money, but it is pretty short sighted and probably costs money in the long run. Most tracks can't (or won't) think long term. This has to kill churn from a lot of bettors.
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I Believe this is pretty right on. People are either playing this bet on normal days because of ignorance (I am sure a good 80 % + if not more of the money bet in these pools has no reasonable chance of hitting the jackpot-and some days with lots of short fields it may be in the high 90's if not 100% of all tickets are dead to the jackpot) or because they really like a 20 cent pick six.
If racetracks are just capitalizing on the ignorance of their supporting patrons, then shame on them(and ultimately the racing industry will pay the price). If the appeal is a 20 cent pick six (and I suspect it is), why not just put in 15% take out 20 cent pick. Woodbine Mohawk Harness has a low takeout pick 5, for 20 cents, the payoffs are usually generous and the handle is tremendous(Like over $100,000 on a card which handles about 1.3 Million).
As alluded to by CJ, someone chucks in forty bucks a day into a jackpot pick 6, 2 things happen. Multiply that by 200 days he bets and that $40 becomes $8000. If he is giving up around 40% on these bets, that is about $3200 he is just throwing away. Now I know these pools, especially as they grow can take on some really unusual betting. At times a obvious pick 6 will pay much more than it should even with a normal takeout due to the betting patterns of the public. But as far as the track is concerned they are just carving 40% out of every dollar on low probability wagers. The typical small bettor who gives away $3200 a year taking small shot time after time eventually watches his small losses become greater and greater and soon realizes this game is getting more and more expensive. Low probability wagers already cause havoc on one's bankroll. Compounding the damage with an enormous takeout leads to a very typical result. Losing a large sum of money very quickly. This also can lead to chasing and compulsive gambling which can make things a lot worse.
I know there are a few instances where someone hits the jackpot. But so what. For him it is great. For the racetrack, big deal. If someone who bet 40 bucks a day happens to hit $150,000 jackpot, does he suddenly start betting $2000 a day? Not likely. He might jump to $100 a day or be completely rational and stick with what got him the jackpot in the first place(40 bucks a day). Meanwhile everyone else's bankroll dwindles away.
The bottom line is racetracks keep draining their patrons most valuable resource, available betting capital. Long term this can have only one effect. Reduced betting elsewhere and/or worse yet a larger depletion of bankroll and an inevitable exit from betting horses period(no law says that the guy betting $40 bucks day on 200 jackpot pick sixes won't blow all 200 of them, find himself 8 k in the hole and say "enough is enough").
For me it is great. Every few months there is a huge carryover on a 20 cent pick six and a mandatory payout. It doesn't get better than that. For the racing industry it is a foolish road. But a wise person told me to adapt or die, so I adapt by waiting for those golden opportunities.
