my take on the belmont.

[boys at tosconova]

my take on the belmont.

despite the fact that this race is usually won by horses that don't figure that prominently, one thing holds true. closers don't win you hear it all the time from trainers, you want to be closer up in this race. and while that may be true this is a 10 horse race, not 6 or 7. so half of the field is likely to back pretty far off the pace, sure they'll be closer than if it was a 12/14 horse field but still.

what does this mean: well,...on paper you have a pace less race. blended citizen out of post 10 will likely be tenth for half the race if not longer. followed by vino, hofburg, free drop,..i really don't know where tenfold, gronk and restoring hope will be. don't really give gronk that much chance where ever he is.

obv as a closer in the belmont stakes in a field like this you want be at least 5/6th at around 5L off the lead. if you are you're chances greatly improve. in a 10 horse field that might not happen for the second half of horses

knowing all of this there's little to no reasons why you should even include blended citizen. convince me he's 5L at the half way point and i will change my tune some but he's not going to go from 10th to first without fast fractions. and if they go slow he has zero chance of hitting the board unless justy pulls away and wins by 5-10L or if he's just better than the other closers.

that brings us to hofburg. can he take advantage of post four to not be that far back? i don't know. and if you had to choose i would say he'll be in the back prolly looking at vino's rear end. and in front of blended citizen. and his low odds are laughable to what the horse has accomplished and achieved thus far.

what about free drop. his inside post could mean he'll be up closer. but that's just a calculated guess. the horse still looks short in many ways to many of these. but he was up close in the holy bull finishing 2nd to audible. that said this looks like the kind of horse that will run well in the belmont for many reasons at big odds if he is on the rail 3/4th for most of the race. let's not forget he crushed bravazo in october.

what about tenfold. i like tenfold he's getting better but he has to be at least in the same position as he was in the preakness. which looks semi feasible. another move forward and he could get there and easily hit the board once again..putting him ahaed of the other closers seems likely early on


vino...still living off the wood race....everything i said about him was right regarding the KD. regardless of his flowing mane or hanging with haskin's ridiculous pick to win the derby...he had no frikken chance. and it wasn't just because of his post. it was because it wasn't nearly fast enough. this race however he fits much better. but he still has things to prove to me. he obv proved a little more than hofburg. and if he's only 5L he can hit the board like several of theses closer types. a win? seems unlikely to me


restoring hope... toss out the peter pan. don;t know where the horse will be but he can easily be better. it looks entirely possible he'll be in the top 5 early in a spot beneficial to finish itm in the belmont if he's good enough. the horse could easily be sacrificed to help justy and might be sent hard early to engage bravazo and possibly keep noble indy wide.....yeah,..he looks like an obv butcher candidate to help the better cause (which is hurt the other horses that can challenge your good one).......isn't horse racing great.

noble indy...no top 6 KD horses in here except justy. if he wasn't partially owned by winstar i would make more of a case to win but there's
still conflict of interest that doesn't behoove the bettors. don't want him on the lead, but he might be. or withe blinkers off he doesn;t leave at all.... still looks like he'll be up close in what looks like soft fractions, and that alone helps big time. it's also possible with him being on the lead in soft fractions that he still even backs up because of the 1/1/2..i don't think he's a wire to window horse. you want him in back of justy, not in front on the lead. the way this whole winstar thing played out i'm sure there might be some changes in the future. where it's coupled entries or something else. the possibly for shenanigans, sandbagging and kickbacks is endless. and the only people it hurts is the bettors or those not in the know.

bravazo. he'll be up close and in position. only reason not to use in the number is that you think he'll be tired. again, fractions do look to be very soft unless there are shenanigans..but reading between the line leads me to think there will be some sort of BS in here that will be passed off as plausible.

justy..what can you say. he lays over the field. you can say the preakness made him come back to the pack and gives other a fighting chance, which looks true.. not to mention finishing off and winning the TC in a potentially tired state. thing is. he may have set up help. not only is he faster than everyone these other factors exist. you can't trust anybody in this situation...same trainer/different trainer...same owned horses..... wtf..this system is just begging to manipulated for the better good of one thing...money. knowing all of that this helps his cause even more. hard to see him off the board uness he's a broken down tired horse.

[MadVindication]

I agree with you for the most. I don't think closers can have too much a shot. I think that the "tired horse" and stamina issue is blown out of proportion.

Justify is a large horse and none of the other horses in this race have a stride like Justify. Combined with his speed and he's the obvious winner -inferior stamina/over-raced/declining form or not. I just don't really see the upset. Tenfold has this great rhythym and Free Drop Billy has pedigree and recent workouts going for him but he's got kind of a short stride.

My prediction is that Justify will make the Belmont win look near effortless (at least compared to the notoreity of the Belmont being a tough stamina race). And if he doesn't it's because other horse near his pace really step up their game.

I would bet Free Drop Billy since he's finished in the money and maybe has some versatility that can lend him a run close to the pace. Actuallly think he's the better 'closer' pick over Hofburg, even without considering the odds.

From my observation, Justify takes after the Ghostzapper side of his pedigree and I could expect to see him run like Shaman Ghost (Ghostzapper) in the Brooklyn Invitational, tho perhaps with more company down the stretch. I think Bravazo will be the one to test him there. Maybe even a stretch battle. BUT really I can't see any horse not near the lead from the start making any way to first or second, third even. Yet the Belmont Stakes trends are making it hard for me to bet this way and put my money where my mouth is, so to speak. And if I wasn't ok with being wrong I wouldn't bet on horses in the first place.

YouTube (Short URL)

I really love that race. How Rosario hand rides him out of the turn and doesn't have to ask for much. and the horses too far back at that turn don't seem to have much of a chance, speed, stride, stamina or not. Ghostzapper has produced some good routers with tactical speed. Holy Helena is another off the top my head tho she's a turf runner.

[Immortal6]

I'll defend Blended Citizen here by saying that he showed a new dimension to me in the Peter Pan. Was less than 2 lengths off the lead at 6F in 1:11 which is likely the same pace Justify will set in the Belmont. He and Vino Rosso are my two picks to upset Justify. Great write up!

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Immortal6

I'll defend Blended Citizen here by saying that he showed a new dimension to me in the Peter Pan. Was less than 2 lengths off the lead at 6F in 1:11 which is likely the same pace Justify will set in the Belmont. He and Vino Rosso are my two picks to upset Justify. Great write up!

he really didn't show a different dimension. it was a 6 horse race and he was 5th for most of the race. i'm not saying he can't hit the board. he looks like he's on the improve but he isn't very likely to be sitting 5th here <2L off the lead the whole race.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Jazil ran the perfect Belmont for a "closer".