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Old 07-26-2018, 04:26 PM   #1
ultracapper
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Reliability of last race indicators

Here's something that I don't think has been discussed before.

I've found, and pretty much live by, what I've perceived that positive indicators in the horses previous race is more reliable that a good race is forthcoming than negative indicators in a horses past race is reliable that a poor race is forthcoming. In other words, it's less likely that a horse you're expecting a good performance from will let you down than it is likely that a horse you're expecting a poor performance will pop up and surprise you. You're going to be surprised by a horse that you're expecting nothing from more often than a horse you're expecting something from will let you down.

Positive indicators are more reliable than negative indicators in the previous race. I dig further into horses that ran so-so to see if there is something lurking deeper in the pps than I have to when a horse is showing in it's last race that it will run well. If it's showing in it's last race that it will run well today, I pretty much just go with it and move on to the next horse.
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Old 07-26-2018, 04:47 PM   #2
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Well, that is as mud to me. Could you be more specific? Are you saying that you see "stuff" that you think is good (like what?) and if another horse doesn't have "stuff" and just has "negative stuff" (like what again) the first horse will probably win?


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Old 07-26-2018, 05:32 PM   #3
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Have you noticed east-coast horses just don't show many works---compared to west coast?

I suspect they have more workouts---they just don't show, or report them back east.

I know Del Mar has higher-class horses than ,say..Finger Lakes. If you have the Del Mar pp's...damn near every horse shows 1-3 workouts SINCE his last race.

Unless he's coming off a layoff you won't find many horses that show even 2 workouts since last...at eastern tracks, or Ellis, etc.
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Old 07-26-2018, 05:53 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Have you noticed east-coast horses just don't show many works---compared to west coast?

I suspect they have more workouts---they just don't show, or report them back east.

I know Del Mar has higher-class horses than ,say..Finger Lakes. If you have the Del Mar pp's...damn near every horse shows 1-3 workouts SINCE his last race.

Unless he's coming off a layoff you won't find many horses that show even 2 workouts since last...at eastern tracks, or Ellis, etc.
That's one reason why I don't bet West Coast tracks. I check workouts in the pp's when handicapping. On the East Coast it is a factor which I follow. Out in California it's works, works,works ,and all seem to be good works, for even the cheapest stock . Easier to try to figure trainer intention on the East Coast.
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Old 07-26-2018, 05:54 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
Here's something that I don't think has been discussed before.

I've found, and pretty much live by, what I've perceived that positive indicators in the horses previous race is more reliable that a good race is forthcoming than negative indicators in a horses past race is reliable that a poor race is forthcoming. In other words, it's less likely that a horse you're expecting a good performance from will let you down than it is likely that a horse you're expecting a poor performance will pop up and surprise you. You're going to be surprised by a horse that you're expecting nothing from more often than a horse you're expecting something from will let you down.

Positive indicators are more reliable than negative indicators in the previous race. I dig further into horses that ran so-so to see if there is something lurking deeper in the pps than I have to when a horse is showing in it's last race that it will run well. If it's showing in it's last race that it will run well today, I pretty much just go with it and move on to the next horse.
Your statement is valid but what is missing from your approach is an empirical methodology that will allow you to validate it.

A statement like the following:

Quote:
Positive indicators are more reliable than negative indicators in the previous race.
is meaningless if you do not have a methodology to reject it based on a specific universe of data.

(Anyway, your conjecture can be easily falsified.)
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Old 07-26-2018, 08:46 PM   #6
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Sartin Says...

Doc Sartin used to say that last race is not as predictive as 3rd race back at comparable distance and surface. I use best of last 3 in putting in pace lines for software prgm I'm using. Works well for me.
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Old 07-26-2018, 09:02 PM   #7
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Doc Sartin used to say that last race is not as predictive as 3rd race back at comparable distance and surface. I use best of last 3 in putting in pace lines for software prgm I'm using. Works well for me.
Is he quoted as a guru?
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Old 07-26-2018, 09:22 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover View Post
Is he quoted as a guru?
I believe he went by a statistical survey done by "Sport Stat" at the time showing the last race was no more predictive for the WINNER than the 2nd or 3rd race back.
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Old 07-27-2018, 02:44 AM   #9
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I believe he went by a statistical survey done by "Sport Stat" at the time showing the last race was no more predictive for the WINNER than the 2nd or 3rd race back.
I don't see how that could be. Wasn't it part of the Sartin Methodology to never ignore the horse's last "representative running line", unless there was a compelling handicapping reason to do so?
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Old 07-27-2018, 03:53 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Have you noticed east-coast horses just don't show many works---compared to west coast?

I suspect they have more workouts---they just don't show, or report them back east.

I know Del Mar has higher-class horses than ,say..Finger Lakes. If you have the Del Mar pp's...damn near every horse shows 1-3 workouts SINCE his last race.

Unless he's coming off a layoff you won't find many horses that show even 2 workouts since last...at eastern tracks, or Ellis, etc.
Rules are different. In CA, every work has timed and reported, and has to be on the track or at a approved training center. In NY and other places, the trainer has to show 1 timed workout in the last 30 or 60 days, depending on the rules of that state. They can work the horse at a private facility and not report it.

Look at a lot of horses trained by Servise. The shippers usually show only 1 work out on the track. On Monday he had a horse in the 6th race that showed 1 work since May. So he is working the horse at a private facility away from prying eyes.
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Old 07-27-2018, 04:00 AM   #11
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Rules are different. In CA, every work has timed and reported, and has to be on the track or at a approved training center. In NY and other places, the trainer has to show 1 timed workout in the last 30 or 60 days, depending on the rules of that state. They can work the horse at a private facility and not report it.

Look at a lot of horses trained by Servise. The shippers usually show only 1 work out on the track. On Monday he had a horse in the 6th race that showed 1 work since May. So he is working the horse at a private facility away from prying eyes.


I figured it was something like that---thanks

(Hey Jay...is that Frederick Douglass on your avatar?)
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Old 07-27-2018, 04:09 AM   #12
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I figured it was something like that---thanks

(Hey Jay...is that Frederick Douglass on your avatar?)
It is Tim Conway, the character is The Oldest Man In the World.

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Old 07-27-2018, 09:26 AM   #13
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I know Del Mar has higher-class horses than ,say..Finger Lakes. If you have the Del Mar pp's...damn near every horse shows 1-3 workouts SINCE his last race.
At Finger Lakes, we count the paddock and the post parade as two work outs.
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Old 07-27-2018, 09:31 AM   #14
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At Finger Lakes, we count the paddock and the post parade as two work outs.
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Old 07-27-2018, 10:42 AM   #15
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That's one reason why I don't bet West Coast tracks. I check workouts in the pp's when handicapping. On the East Coast it is a factor which I follow. Out in California it's works, works,works ,and all seem to be good works, for even the cheapest stock . Easier to try to figure trainer intention on the East Coast.
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That's why the workout reports are so popular in the So. Cal market. Without the reports, it's hard to make anything of the works, because so many trainers work them fast.
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