looking for the improving horse

[sam i am]

does anyone know what the average number of "speed points" (Beyer, Timeform, bris) that a winning horse progressed or regressed from their last race to todays winning race ? by distance, class or surface.

Thanks

[Tom]

Mark Crammer found an average of 8 Beyer points was a general improvement to today's win.

I have been looking at this in the 3 yos a lot the last couple of weeks. I am seeing it is not uncommon to see a 15-30 point improvement from the previous top, not looking at low Beyers in bad races. Look at the last four Derby preps if you have the Forms. Something that has popped up a few times is that several of the jumps have been preceded by the horse matching his 2 year old top, then exploding. Look at the Wood winner.

I don't have Beyers in any DB other than the one I have for winners, so I can't query that.

[fmolf]

Beyer also cautions that horse rarely improve in three straight starts,and the larger the jump in speed figure , the more likely the horse is to regress next out.

[Robert Goren]

Most of the derby entrants improved big time in their last race. Now you pick the one in twenty that will improve big time again to get the derby winner. We are looking a freak of nature when we are looking for horse that makes two straight big moves up. Good luck!

[fmolf]

sometimes looking for subtle signs can be a good handicapping tool.Examples would be a faster turn time,or an increase in early speed.I like to look for a horse who is making his 3rd start off a layoff and in one of the comeback races ran fast early and in the other ran fast late.This angle can uncover some longshots.

[BlueChip@DRF]

For turf routes I look at the comment line of the most recent race.
If they finished out of the money but the comment said "imporoved position", that's the one I will play.