Keeneland lowers DD takeout to 15% from 22%

[ScottJ]

There are several things about the wagering game that are shoved down the average player's throat that for the life of me has never made sense.

First, let's talk about pool composition. Explain how the 15% takeout is an average player's weapon against the CAW players. Is the increase in handle with the lowered takeout being dominated by CAW plays that are increasing the handle while taking more from the small player?

Second, let's talk about wagering sources. Celebrating that TVG is at the table selling the low takeout double wager on their broadcast is like inviting the wolf to the henhouse - TVG is a tax on the game, no different from the CAWs themselves. Explain the value-add of FanDuel/TVG who will drop horseracing in a New York second if they can make more from sports. Honestly, if FanDuel/TVG would disappear tomorrow, would it matter? Handle would shift to platforms that more directly contribute to track purses.

Third, let's talk about handle. Why are average players constantly being beaten over the head with numbers about "the size of the pools"? Those numbers are the racetrack's business along with ADW partners; nothing about those numbers impacts the average player. If I told you that a double pool was $200,000 as opposed to $150,000, what difference does it make? Yes, increased handle generates more purse money which is good for the game, but it is Keeneland's job to market the difference, not mine to monitor it. Exactly what does the average player get from a larger handle?

So, the headline is lower takeout rate. Excellent news.

How about a sliding scale of takeout rates as the pool size grows? Suddenly, betting more matters and the average player has a reason to care about pool size?

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

There are several things about the wagering game that are shoved down the average player's throat that for the life of me has never made sense.

First, let's talk about pool composition. Explain how the 15% takeout is an average player's weapon against the CAW players. Is the increase in handle with the lowered takeout being dominated by CAW plays that are increasing the handle while taking more from the small player?...[/B]

I'll address this one for now.

When Keeneland lowered their double takeout they also lowered rebates by an equivalent amount.

The result is lower takeout for us everyday players and the same net effective takeout for the CAW whale teams.

Or put another way, for Keeneland's Double Pools:

Everyday players and CAW whale teams are on a more level playing field than before Keeneland lowered their double takeout.

If I had to hazard a guess I'd say the bulk of the handle increase is being generated by everyday players - with the CAW teams increasing their handle a few percentage points to take advantage of the resulting increased pool size.



-jp
.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

I'll address this one for now.

When Keeneland lowered their double takeout they also lowered rebates by an equivalent amount.

The result is lower takeout for us everyday players and the same net effective takeout for the CAW whale teams.

Or put another way, for Keeneland's Double Pools:

Everyday players and CAW whale teams are on a more level playing field than before Keeneland lowered their double takeout.

If I had to hazard a guess I'd say the bulk of the handle increase is being generated by everyday players - with the CAW teams increasing their handle a few percentage points to take advantage of the resulting increased pool size.



-jp
.

Exactly

And it's funny that it took this long for a major track to do this. Of course Cal Racing could have done this 13 years ago and it would probably still be a viable jurisdiction but NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

There are several things about the wagering game that are shoved down the average player's throat that for the life of me has never made sense.

First, let's talk about pool composition. Explain how the 15% takeout is an average player's weapon against the CAW players. Is the increase in handle with the lowered takeout being dominated by CAW plays that are increasing the handle while taking more from the small player?

Second, let's talk about wagering sources. Celebrating that TVG is at the table selling the low takeout double wager on their broadcast is like inviting the wolf to the henhouse - TVG is a tax on the game, no different from the CAWs themselves. Explain the value-add of FanDuel/TVG who will drop horseracing in a New York second if they can make more from sports. Honestly, if FanDuel/TVG would disappear tomorrow, would it matter? Handle would shift to platforms that more directly contribute to track purses.

Third, let's talk about handle. Why are average players constantly being beaten over the head with numbers about "the size of the pools"? Those numbers are the racetrack's business along with ADW partners; nothing about those numbers impacts the average player. If I told you that a double pool was $200,000 as opposed to $150,000, what difference does it make? Yes, increased handle generates more purse money which is good for the game, but it is Keeneland's job to market the difference, not mine to monitor it. Exactly what does the average player get from a larger handle?

So, the headline is lower takeout rate. Excellent news.

How about a sliding scale of takeout rates as the pool size grows? Suddenly, betting more matters and the average player has a reason to care about pool size?

A few points. I will post the first three days daily double/pick 4 comparison for the first 3 races tomorrow. For the first two days the daily double parlays have paid well. They are neck and neck. Piggybacking off of Jeff’s point, if caw rebate is dropping from from 14 percent down to 7 percent and the net takeout is a far more appropriate 15 percent, that is a double win for the player. I cannot agree with Jeff more on this subject.

Regarding point 2, imo you underestimate the marketing vehicle that fan duel tv provides. It is not effective now because the game is priced too high. If the horse player supports these takeout reductions, you will see more of them. As the pricing becomes closer to optimal (8 percent wps and 10 to 12 percent exotics) the sport should start to turn around a little bit. So if fanduel is pumping this, that is a good thing for the sport. Fan duel tv is about the only way some people will know the sport exists.

Regarding point 3. I think as pools get bigger and more public money in them, despite the caw, it is better for the players. This is just a hunch by me but I think their models are reliant enough on public money that dumb money in the pools throw their models off some. Not enough that they don’t make money but
enough that the average horse player has a more exploitable (or less efficient) market to attack.

Regarding your sliding scale I see your point, but I think it is best used behind the scenes by management. You don’t want to require the customer to earn their benefit. Although they could do something like if any daily double pool reaches x amount of dollars there will be an additional 5 percent added to daily double payoffs. That might provide a group incentive to horse players to really drive up their betting.

[Poindexter]

Here are the daily double payouts the projected dd parlay payouts based off the assumption that they should pay the pick 4 amount less 8% and of course the
$1 pick 4 payouts. So far it looks like the double parlays are paying slightly more than projected overall in this very small sample(though a couple daily double parlays paid very well one paid poorly). This is for the first 3 days of the Keenland meet.

1st dd 2nd dd $1 dd parlay proj $1 pick 4
5-Apr 5.47 20.24 110.71 58.6224 63.72
5-Apr 88.98 135.44 12051.45 11605.31 12614.47
6-Apr 13.79 35.49 489.40 572.2584 622.02
6-Apr 45.98 16.17 743.49 367.6872 399.66
6-Apr 22.38 7.45 166.73 138.3864 150.42
7-Apr 33.44 15.56 520.32 493.12 536
7-Apr 19.94 28.88 575.86 596.62 648.5
total: 14657.99 13832.00 15034.79


I tried lining up the columns but PA's software doesn't let you do that very well. So basically what you are reading is the day, the 1st daily double amount, the 2nd daily double amount, what the $1 daily double parlay came back, what the projected payout of the DD parlay should be (based on pick 4 payout less 8%) and of lastly the $1 pick 4 payoff.

The 3 totals on the bottom are a total of the double parlay amount column, the projected double
parlay amount column and the actual pick 4 payout column

[Jeff P]

                            1$ dd
 date    1st dd    2nd dd   parlay         proj  $1 pick 4
----------------------------------------------------------
5-Apr      5.47     20.24   110.71        58.62      63.72
5-Apr     88.98    135.44 12051.45     11605.31   12614.47
6-Apr     13.79     35.49   489.40       572.26     622.02
6-Apr     45.98     16.17   743.49       367.69     399.66
6-Apr     22.38      7.45   166.73       138.39     150.42
7-Apr     33.44     15.56   520.32       493.12     536.00
7-Apr     19.94     28.88   575.86       596.62     648.50
----------------------------------------------------------
totals:                   14657.99     13832.00   15034.79

It's actually pretty easy to do:

1. Type it into Notepad using Lucida Console as the font.

2. Copy and paste it into the box at the PA site.

3. Highlight the numbers table and 'wrap' what you highlighted with Code tags by hitting the # button.

Hopefully, what I posted above is what you were shooting for.


-jp
.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

                            1$ dd
 date    1st dd    2nd dd   parlay         proj  $1 pick 4
----------------------------------------------------------
5-Apr      5.47     20.24   110.71        58.62      63.72
5-Apr     88.98    135.44 12051.45     11605.31   12614.47
6-Apr     13.79     35.49   489.40       572.26     622.02
6-Apr     45.98     16.17   743.49       367.69     399.66
6-Apr     22.38      7.45   166.73       138.39     150.42
7-Apr     33.44     15.56   520.32       493.12     536.00
7-Apr     19.94     28.88   575.86       596.62     648.50
----------------------------------------------------------
totals:                   14657.99     13832.00   15034.79

It's actually pretty easy to do:

1. Type it into Notepad using Lucida Console as the font.

2. Copy and paste it into the box at the PA site.

3. Highlight the numbers table and 'wrap' what you highlighted with Code tags by hitting the # button.

Hopefully, what I posted above is what you were shooting for.


-jp
.

Exactly what I was shooting for. Nice job. not too good with this computer stuff. 1 and 2 is a piece of cake. You completely lost me on #3.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Exactly what I was shooting for. Nice job. not too good with this computer stuff. 1 and 2 is a piece of cake. You completely lost me on #3.

he actually means to just select everything you just pasted and then click the CODE button on the editing toolbar so that your selected text has the CODE tag applied at the start and at the end of your selected text

see attachment for which button to press

[Poindexter]

Okay I got it now. Thanks.

[classhandicapper]

From a personal perspective, I love the lower take double, but unfortunately for us it's not just about the players.

It's about the tracks and industry.

We have to demonstrate more than just increased handle in a specific pool.

We have to demonstrate increased bottom line for the track and industry.

Imagine 3 competing pizzerias in a neighborhood and one offers a lunch special for meatball heroes.

If his sales of meatball heroes go up, did they go up at the expense chicken, eggplant, pizza etc.... (same amount of money wagered but on the Double instead of WPS or Pick 3 or 4) or did he actually bring in new customers with fresh money?

Did he bring in brand new customers that normally don't go to any of the pizzerias in the neighborhood or did he just steal some market share from one of the other pizzerias (instead of betting OP they bet KEE)?

Did this extra amount of handle actually increase the bottom line to KEE given that the take was lower on every dollar bet in the double pool?

The idea here is not to just move money from one pool to another or from one track to another. The idea is to bring in brand new customers and for the existing customers to bet so much more than usual the industry bottom line is better.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

From a personal perspective, I love the lower take double, but unfortunately for us it's not just about the players.

It's about the tracks and industry.

We have to demonstrate more than just increased handle in a specific pool.

We have to demonstrate increased bottom line for the track and industry.

Imagine 3 competing pizzerias in a neighborhood and one offers a lunch special for meatball heroes.

If his sales of meatball heroes go up, did they go up at the expense chicken, eggplant, pizza etc.... (same amount of money wagered but on the Double instead of WPS or Pick 3 or 4) or did he actually bring in new customers with fresh money?

Did he bring in brand new customers that normally don't go to any of the pizzerias in the neighborhood or did he just steal some market share from one of the other pizzerias (instead of betting OP they bet KEE)?

Did this extra amount of handle actually increase the bottom line to KEE given that the take was lower on every dollar bet in the double pool?

The idea here is not to just move money from one pool to another or from one track to another. The idea is to bring in brand new customers and for the existing customers to bet so much more than usual the industry bottom line is better.

I don't look at this change as bringing in new customers as much as I do getting existing customers to churn day after day rather than quickly going broke in some of the longer horizontal pools. The analogy then IMO would be if the person starts eating lunch at the establishment several times per week rather then several times per month. At 15% each day you're bringing in a lot more churn when even a novice can go 3x3 or 2x4 and have a fair chance in multiple races per day. It's a game changer IMO if you can get more people betting doubles as a default option. Honestly it immediately fixes in my estimation 25% of the 'problems' from a betting standpoint overnight.

Adding projected odds probably takes us to 60%, adding some fixed odds match up bets IMO would get us to about 80% plus might bring new customers from sports. The final piece would be field size and I don't think we get to that without a major overhaul of how races are put together. IMO you'd have to get rid of conditions and have grades like 1 through 20 or 30. Trainer must send a list of horses in the the barn that are ready to run a race and then someone would put together evenly matched races based upon class ratings. That's a big change so it may never come to pass but if they want 10-12 horses in every race that are all ready to run they need to get away from the way it's being done. There are better ways now IMO.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

From a personal perspective, I love the lower take double, but unfortunately for us it's not just about the players.

It's about the tracks and industry.

We have to demonstrate more than just increased handle in a specific pool.

We have to demonstrate increased bottom line for the track and industry.

Imagine 3 competing pizzerias in a neighborhood and one offers a lunch special for meatball heroes.

If his sales of meatball heroes go up, did they go up at the expense chicken, eggplant, pizza etc.... (same amount of money wagered but on the Double instead of WPS or Pick 3 or 4) or did he actually bring in new customers with fresh money?

Did he bring in brand new customers that normally don't go to any of the pizzerias in the neighborhood or did he just steal some market share from one of the other pizzerias (instead of betting OP they bet KEE)?

Did this extra amount of handle actually increase the bottom line to KEE given that the take was lower on every dollar bet in the double pool?

The idea here is not to just move money from one pool to another or from one track to another. The idea is to bring in brand new customers and for the existing customers to bet so much more than usual the industry bottom line is better.

You cannot magically bring customers into the game. It is a process. You start with an idea like this and you promote it. As they have. This is still not optimal takeout but it is a lot better. This industry has been robbing its customer base of shoes and shirt for years in the name of entertainment. Don’t expect people to come running back because the drive by and see the word sale on the door. What is more important at this point is a shift in attitude of decision makers in this industry. The only way to shift their belief system (which is wrong but they are to hard headed to admit it) is to shift your betting from NYra or socal to keenland to send the right message. If keenland sees a huge jump across the board because of this move then the existing consumer has spoken. If they don’t, then the attitude will always be that the consumer doesn’t care about takeout. They are only going to follow the datapoints. If lower takeouts mean more profit than they might go there. If not, it will be ridiculous pricing forever and ultimately game over. Bottom line is it is way to early in the process to worry about where the money is coming from. 15 percent in one pool is not going to bring a lot of new blood into the game.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

You cannot magically bring customers into the game. It is a process. You start with an idea like this and you promote it. As they have. This is still not optimal takeout but it is a lot better. This industry has been robbing its customer base of shoes and shirt for years in the name of entertainment. Don’t expect people to come running back because the drive by and see the word sale on the door. What is more important at this point is a shift in attitude of decision makers in this industry. The only way to shift their belief system (which is wrong but they are to hard headed to admit it) is to shift your betting from NYra or socal to keenland to send the right message. If keenland sees a huge jump across the board because of this move then the existing consumer has spoken. If they don’t, then the attitude will always be that the consumer doesn’t care about takeout. They are only going to follow the datapoints. If lower takeouts mean more profit than they might go there. If not, it will be ridiculous pricing forever and ultimately game over. Bottom line is it is way to early in the process to worry about where the money is coming from. 15 percent in one pool is not going to bring a lot of new blood into the game.

I'm in 100% agreement about real benefit taking time.

I'm just throwing a little cold water on the celebration because I'm not sure we know what it this spike means for the track and industry bottom like yet other than some gamblers are are sensitive to the track take.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I don't look at this change as bringing in new customers as much as I do getting existing customers to churn day after day rather than quickly going broke in some of the longer horizontal pools.

Not just churn day after day - but churn within the day because the money is coming back out over the course of the card!

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Not just churn day after day - but churn within the day because the money is coming back out over the course of the card!