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Old 06-07-2019, 08:58 AM   #1
Ocala Mike
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May Jobs Numbers

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ay/1374420001/
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Old 06-07-2019, 09:50 AM   #2
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Hard to exceed expectations every month.


Unemployment still at a 50 year low of 3.6%.
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Old 06-07-2019, 09:53 AM   #3
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We are at "full employment", so the incremental increases have to level off or drop.

But there are still a lot of jobs out there that Americans will not take, and yet we are willing to pay them welfare.

that is the next step to take - no work, no pork.
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Old 06-07-2019, 10:17 AM   #4
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Hard to exceed expectations every month.


Unemployment still at a 50 year low of 3.6%.
Avg monthly job creation stats:

Last 4 years of Obama: 216k
Last 2 years of Obama: 210k

Trump's first 29 months in office: 195K
Trump's trailing 12 months: 212k

Source: Trump's Dept of Labor (https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0..._view=net_1mth)

Tom raises an important point (i.e., the late-cycle dynamic at play--more difficult to hire new workers), but it appears the economy has downshifted modestly this year, as we've anniversaried the tax cuts and the tariffs sap, modestly at this point, business and, to a lessor extent, consumer confidence (see comments from the latest Univ of Michigan consumer confidence survey--re: back half of May). Importantly, wage gains have inflected higher under Trump (in rough terms, wage gains trending at 3% vs 2% under Obama). Again, this is a normal late-cycle dynamic.

Longer term, GDP growth (and job growth by extension) is a function of productivity and population growth. Population growth is very modest at this point. If long-term immigration patterns are curbed, I suspect it falls lower. Productivity growth has stagnated over the past decade. It's shown a little bit of life over the past six to twelve months, but I'd question the sustainability.

Personally, I believe there's too much debt in the system (in the US and globally), which places downward pressure on growth (in the US and globally).
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Old 06-07-2019, 10:30 AM   #5
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You want to kick the economy in to high gear?

1, Erase all credit card debt. This frees up billions of $$$ for spending.

2. Cancel all credit cards. This clears the system.

3. Implement common sense credit car program with reasonable, fixed interest rates and reasonable limits. Prohibit advertising for CC's. Make the person work to get one, and work to keep it.

With the obscene interest rates CCs have been charging for years, anyone that goes broke taking the current CC balance hit probably is not responsible enough to remain in business anyway.

I can see an economy souring with money being freed up to churn its way around the country.

Why go after the rich when you can go after their banks?
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Old 06-07-2019, 10:42 AM   #6
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You want to kick the economy in to high gear?

1, Erase all credit card debt. This frees up billions of $$$ for spending.

2. Cancel all credit cards. This clears the system.

3. Implement common sense credit car program with reasonable, fixed interest rates and reasonable limits. Prohibit advertising for CC's. Make the person work to get one, and work to keep it.

With the obscene interest rates CCs have been charging for years, anyone that goes broke taking the current CC balance hit probably is not responsible enough to remain in business anyway.

I can see an economy souring with money being freed up to churn its way around the country.

Why go after the rich when you can go after their banks?
The next bailout will be student loans, imo, not credit card debt. Currently, Sen. Durbin is proposing a bankruptcy reform bill that will make it much, much easier to discharge student loan debt in the bankruptcy process (nearly impossible now). I'm opposed to this b/c guess who picks up the tab when student loan debt is written off? The taxpayer.

On credit card debt, why should it be eliminated? It would leave a gapping hole in the capital cushion at banks. So what, you might say? That would curb lending and slow the economy. No free lunch. Otherwise, the Chinese who have major debt issues at the local and business level, would just write-off all their debt.
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Old 06-07-2019, 10:42 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Tom View Post
You want to kick the economy in to high gear?

1, Erase all credit card debt. This frees up billions of $$$ for spending.

2. Cancel all credit cards. This clears the system.

3. Implement common sense credit car program with reasonable, fixed interest rates and reasonable limits. Prohibit advertising for CC's. Make the person work to get one, and work to keep it.

With the obscene interest rates CCs have been charging for years, anyone that goes broke taking the current CC balance hit probably is not responsible enough to remain in business anyway.

I can see an economy souring with money being freed up to churn its way around the country.

Why go after the rich when you can go after their banks?
i could probably come up with at least 1000 reasons why you are right on this, but i know the banks are to powerful.

the other thing i would add is to get rid of fractional banking altogether. if you did that and get rid of a few completely wasteful spending programs, get rid of the crooks in government. you might be able to wipe off the debt this country owes without screwing the people that lent us the money to begin with.
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Old 06-07-2019, 10:44 AM   #8
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Snip.
Do you interpret the Feds near immediate reversal on their rate position as a sign of underlying weakness?

That's how I'm seeing it at the moment and it appears to be our industries interpretation of events.

There is a lot of debt in the system but with a decade of basically free money it's kinda to be expected.
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Old 06-07-2019, 10:48 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Tom View Post
You want to kick the economy in to high gear?

1, Erase all credit card debt. This frees up billions of $$$ for spending.

2. Cancel all credit cards. This clears the system.

3. Implement common sense credit car program with reasonable, fixed interest rates and reasonable limits. Prohibit advertising for CC's. Make the person work to get one, and work to keep it.

With the obscene interest rates CCs have been charging for years, anyone that goes broke taking the current CC balance hit probably is not responsible enough to remain in business anyway.

I can see an economy souring with money being freed up to churn its way around the country.

Why go after the rich when you can go after their banks?
Sipping the AOC Kool Aid,are we?

Credit cards are short term. loans,plain and simple. If you can't pay off the balance on time,interest kicks in.If you can't pay on time,don't do the crime. Nobody HAS to have a credit card.We still have freedom of choice in this great land of ours. I think.

Not allowing CC's to advertise would be a violation of First Amendment rights.Y'know, the Constitution.
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Old 06-07-2019, 10:51 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Tom View Post
You want to kick the economy in to high gear?

1, Erase all credit card debt. This frees up billions of $$$ for spending.

2. Cancel all credit cards. This clears the system.

3. Implement common sense credit car program with reasonable, fixed interest rates and reasonable limits. Prohibit advertising for CC's. Make the person work to get one, and work to keep it.

With the obscene interest rates CCs have been charging for years, anyone that goes broke taking the current CC balance hit probably is not responsible enough to remain in business anyway.

I can see an economy souring with money being freed up to churn its way around the country.

Why go after the rich when you can go after their banks?
This is interesting idea, but you would need Congress and they are owned by the big banks.
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Old 06-07-2019, 11:01 AM   #11
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The next bailout will be student loans, imo, not credit card debt. Currently, Sen. Durbin is proposing a bankruptcy reform bill that will make it much, much easier to discharge student loan debt in the bankruptcy process (nearly impossible now). I'm opposed to this b/c guess who picks up the tab when student loan debt is written off? The taxpayer.

On credit card debt, why should it be eliminated? It would leave a gapping hole in the capital cushion at banks. So what, you might say? That would curb lending and slow the economy. No free lunch. Otherwise, the Chinese who have major debt issues at the local and business level, would just write-off all their debt.
My thinking is the vast majority of people will not need to borrow with the burden erased. and with CC harder to get and with limits, it could last. Banks have been preditating on people for years with ursurous interest rates. the purpose of banks originally was to serve people, and the need to get back to that.

A healthy sustainable economy needs to have responsible parties fueling it.

I'm no economist, but it seems to me the system is rigged to keep people spending more and more that they cannot afford to do, like the housing crisis a few years ago.
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Old 06-07-2019, 11:06 AM   #12
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Do you interpret the Feds near immediate reversal on their rate position as a sign of underlying weakness?

That's how I'm seeing it at the moment and it appears to be our industries interpretation of events.

There is a lot of debt in the system but with a decade of basically free money it's kinda to be expected.
Debt started to inflect meaningfully higher in 1980. Here are the stats (courtesy of Ned Davis Research--I've rounded).

US total debt to GDP:

1980: 160%
1995: 235%
2010: 380%
Now: 350%

The massive run up in total debt to GDP was not a result of the last decade's low interest rates.

In the past 18 months, when we'd see a big jobs print or a shortfall, I'd say "trend remains 200k/month" and statistical noise (tons of it in the monthly numbers) explains the upside/downside. I think the jobs market has softened a tad recently, but not to the sub 100k number reported today. I suspect trend is 150k to 175k now. Monitor weekly claims closely, though.

The Fed will cut in two weeks or the next meeting after that.

On banks writing off credit card debt (not your suggestion), total bank equity capital is $1.9 trillion. Writing off credit card debt would wipeout half that capital base. That would be absolutely, positively disastrous for lending and the US economy (see 2008). Actually, it would require a government bailout (see 2008/2009). Once again, there's no free lunch. That's all for me on the topic, as I don't want to get into politics.
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Old 06-07-2019, 11:32 AM   #13
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Actually, you are adding good info to the discussion, unlike many
political threads.

Economically speaking, what if interest rates on CCs were capped at an honest rate...not the enormous rates we see today? No debt wiped but a reasonable price for the loans?

Seems getting money into people's hands, especially lower income people can be very positive for everyone.
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Old 06-07-2019, 11:49 AM   #14
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Baffles my mind how people think that Banks are the egregious horrific and horrible monster that people believe.

Nobody forces anybody to sign a loan. Nobody forces anybody to go spend like a bandit with a credit card because they don't have enough money to pay for that purchase. Nobody forces anybody to sign up for thousands of $s in Credit Card debt.

When will people actually start to take responsibility for their own decisions and actions?

Without a bank, is there anybody on this board that could have afforded a house without a loan? How many people buy a car with straight up cash?

If you want to hovel your money under your mattress and pay straight cash in this day and age, feel free. Banks aren't the problem. Dumbasses who don't pay their bills and have no concept of budgeting their money certainly are.
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Old 06-07-2019, 11:51 AM   #15
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Actually, you are adding good info to the discussion, unlike many
political threads.

Economically speaking, what if interest rates on CCs were capped at an honest rate...not the enormous rates we see today? No debt wiped but a reasonable price for the loans?

Seems getting money into people's hands, especially lower income people can be very positive for everyone.
I'll agree on one thing.

CCs should be way more selective on who should have a credit card and the limits that they give. That would cure a massive amount of the reason why cc rates are so high.
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