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Old 05-26-2022, 01:32 AM   #16
Parkview_Pirate
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Seems like a year that a foreign horse could ship in and easily hit the board. These are hardly proven classy 3YOs at this point. Go and Go?
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Old 05-26-2022, 10:56 AM   #17
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as of 5/23 per Steve Byk

We the People (Brisset)
Kuchar (Brisset) ~ Possible
Rich Strike (Reed)
Barber Road (Ortiz)
Mo Donegal (Pletcher)
Nest (Pletcher) ~ Possible
Golden Glider (Casse)
Creative Minister (McPeek)
Skippylongstocking (Joseph) ~ Possible
Ethereal Road (Lukas) ~ Possible
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Old 05-26-2022, 02:06 PM   #18
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Kuchar looks interesting.
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Old 05-27-2022, 10:53 AM   #19
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Belmont Stakes Winners

Belmont stakes the last 10 years have had three new shooters win:

19 Sir Winston at 10.2 to 1

14 Tonalist at 9.2 to 1

11 Ruler on Ice at 24.75 to 1

Most of the Winners had run in the Kentucky Derby, the following are the winners, odds, and placement in Derby:

21 EQ 1.3 to 1, 4th

18 Justify .8 to 1, 1st

17 Tapwrit 5.3 to 1, 6th

16 Creator, 16.40 to 1, 13th

15 AP, .75 to 1, 1st

13 Palace Malice, 13.8 to 1, 12th

12 Union Rags, 2.75 to 1, 7th
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Old 05-27-2022, 06:40 PM   #20
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$20 to win on Mo Donegal

$2 tri:
Mo Donegal
We The People, Nest, Rich Strike, Barber Road
ALL

Total Bet = $84

Last edited by dballard125; 05-27-2022 at 06:43 PM.
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Old 05-28-2022, 10:49 AM   #21
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How was We The People's Peter Pan pace figs? Would a similar effort be 'loose in this field?
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Old 05-28-2022, 11:13 AM   #22
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How was We The People's Peter Pan pace figs? Would a similar effort be 'loose in this field?
101 Equibase. That puts him squarely in contention in here. Really interested where his TFUS number is for that race.

That figure was his likely progression in the Arkansas Derby. That Arkansas Derby is a real head scratcher for him to run that poorly. His other 3 career races make him a solid player in this 3YO division.

1:35.63 at 1M in the Peter Pan and 1:48 and change is pretty salty on a good track for a 4th career race.
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Old 05-28-2022, 12:29 PM   #23
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101 Equibase. That puts him squarely in contention in here. Really interested where his TFUS number is for that race.

That figure was his likely progression in the Arkansas Derby. That Arkansas Derby is a real head scratcher for him to run that poorly. His other 3 career races make him a solid player in this 3YO division.

1:35.63 at 1M in the Peter Pan and 1:48 and change is pretty salty on a good track for a 4th career race.
Yea, and I want to see the Pace Projector.
Life and current races keep me busy enough that I typically don't delve into fields more than a few days away.
I'll form an opinion and bounce that off the figs and projections, and see where I stand.


We The People is a well-meant horse. Big ownership. They opted Brisset, and I don't know if it had anything to do with the Baffert situation. Brisset is a good trainer, and in addition, he's an intelligent jockey who gets on his horses at times and so a more hands-on approach perhaps than other good trainers who have high quality workout jocks do the bulk of the work and communication between.

Coming into Arkansas Derby I had him as one of the 3 or 4 contenders. He was extremely live on the board. I don't know why ( talent, low ml? ). A horse like Cyberknife or Doppleganger seemed at the time to me to be about the same chances coming in. If not for the headlining filly Secret Oath, "We The People" would have been favored in Arkansas. Potentially a good model in a positive direction, although I don't have a full understanding.

Arkansas - awful trip. Either no plan for the 1st turn or they underestimated the quality of trying to grind past Cyberknife while 5 wide. Still looks young. Fundamentally sound, room to improve.

Peter Pan - broke well and used the distance to his advantage, mild pace pressure after break and then was able to cruise. Finished well, fundamentally sound.

Value? - If Mo Donegal and Rich Strike run, they could take some $$, and possibly a fair price if you favor this this horse.
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Old 05-31-2022, 06:26 PM   #24
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per Steve Byk as of 5/28

We the People (Brisset)
Kuchar (Brisset) ~ Possible
Rich Strike (Reed)
Barber Road (Ortiz)
Mo Donegal (Pletcher)
Nest (Pletcher) ~ Possible
Golden Glider (Casse)
Creative Minister (McPeek)
Skippylongstocking (Joseph) ~ Possible
Ethereal Road (Lukas) ~ Possible
Howling Time (Romans) ~ Possible
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Old 05-31-2022, 07:32 PM   #25
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Absolutely no chance I will play Rich Strike here. 0. A low priced closer who set a lifetime best in last race with a pace that flattered running style.
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Old 05-31-2022, 07:58 PM   #26
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Offshore odds

Mo Donegal +225
We the People +350
Rich Strike +450
Creative Minister +650
Nest (f) +850
Ethereal Road 10-1
Skippylongstocking 14-1
Barber Road 16-1
Golden Glider 22-1
Kuchar 22-1
Howling Time 25-1

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...shore_odds_123
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Old 06-03-2022, 08:15 PM   #27
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Right now I’m gonna say we the people. But I wanna see the official entries and PPs

But it’s hard not to like a tapit with speed and a monster beyer
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Old 06-04-2022, 08:08 AM   #28
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Absolutely no chance I will play Rich Strike here. 0. A low priced closer who set a lifetime best in last race with a pace that flattered running style.
Well, be that as it may, if Rich Strike is the class of the crop, he is supposed to be able to overcome things like pace, distance and bounces. With Epicenter and Early Voting not in the race, on paper he's the "class" of the field. In theory. Maybe. If this crop just isn't all plugs.

Sometimes the Derby winner ends up being a horse with a lifetime peak and a lucky trip. But usually the Derby winner is a decent horse.

Doesn't mean he wins, and he'll most likely be an underlay. But his latest work was sharp and jogging around Big Sandy he looks okay. I expect him to hit the board.
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Old 06-04-2022, 08:32 AM   #29
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Well, be that as it may, if Rich Strike is the class of the crop, he is supposed to be able to overcome things like pace, distance and bounces. With Epicenter and Early Voting not in the race, on paper he's the "class" of the field. In theory. Maybe. If this crop just isn't all plugs.

Sometimes the Derby winner ends up being a horse with a lifetime peak and a lucky trip. But usually the Derby winner is a decent horse.

Doesn't mean he wins, and he'll most likely be an underlay. But his latest work was sharp and jogging around Big Sandy he looks okay. I expect him to hit the board.
Agree.

Regardless of pace and set up in the Kentucky Derby, he still ran 2:02 and change for 10F. While not an amazing time, it fits in with other Kentucky Derby winners of years past. Faster than American Pharoah and California Chrome on a fast track. (Yes, I realize comparing track surfaces from one day to the next is a frightful task, much less one year to another, but it isn't like they ran 2:04 and change.)

Mine That Bird and Giacomo came back to show us their Kentucky Derby wins weren't a fluke, and those are comparable winners.

12F is 12F. Most in the field simply aren't going to be able to run the distance in a competitive nature. Rich Strike looks to be one that will handle 12F better than most. I also expect him to be in the Superfecta at the very least.

Can he win? I'll be playing against him, but it certainly would not surprise me to see him cross the finish line first.
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Old 06-05-2022, 10:47 AM   #30
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Nest and Mo Donegal worked together yesterday at Belmont. Interesting read.

https://www.drf.com/news/belmont-sta...ill-mo-donegal
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