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my take on the preakness
simplification- he was a horse that i liked as a longshot and a derby. it was easy to see that he was a horse that could get a decent stalking strip. however, i don't know if his derby race was as good as it looked. you can't fault the race but i'm not sure i want to pat him on the back and proclaim that he's going to run big here either. he's obv not going to be 35-1 in here and obv won't be 15th early. like several in the field. he just looks like a candidate to hit the board more than win. that's just the feeling i get. he should have better horses in front of him and maybe better horse in back as well. that's not good in mock race scenarios. that enable him to win.
epicenter- nice race in the derby. but let's be honest. it was another golden trip. this time back even further yet running well again. horse is so versatile. 8th on the rail in a 45 half. he had no excuses. zandon had even less. just like the program says. caught. the big question many are asking is if he turnaround will hurt him. personally, he gave his all, and i don't know if he horse can run better. but this field is obv weaker, and writing off a horse just because "he might be tired" just holds little weight in this spot considering how the horse runs every time he steps on the track. i don't see much of a scenario where the horse get a bad trip either.
early voting - i'm very interested in seeing what this horse goes off. sadly, i the horse is going to be 2nd choice and lower than many think . he looks like a legitimate speed threat to win the race. while i'm very critical of wood horses showing up in the derby (been saying it for years) this isn't the derby. what is not a go with this horse? trainer-check jock-check, space between races-check. horse looks like he's ready to run the biggest race of his life. and brown's plan was to run here. only drawback that i can see if if one of the scrub horses decides to push him on the lead. that and a little concern of the distance. but i don't think that can that's enough to not use heavily.
secret oath - i see plenty of punters on and off the horse. thing is even if you're not gung ho you can't rule out 2nd/3rd. lukas talking him up, and yes, he runs his horses hard, but it does seem that when their good, they continue to race well. contradicting modern day race spacing. he had legitimate problems in the ark derby. but in the oaks the horse wasn't a single and you really couldn't pin point a win or monster race. it was a nice win. i hope the horse takes money because no win bets will come my way. but 2nd/3rd sure.
creative minister- i read from somebody that said he wasn't fast enough in another thread. c'mon. how many of the derby horses ran 142.1 @ 1-1/16? not many. and it was in impressive fashion last out. you could see another move forward because that time stacks up well here. what doesn't stack up well is that he's never faced graded horses. with the unknown you don't know. you also have the short turnaround and reading between the lines i get the feeling that mcpeek hopes to run well, but he doesn't know that he will be good enough. i just wish he was more confident. like asmussen on epi. a 2nd/3rd on his best could happen, but he also loses lasix. seems like your gonna get a good price as well. horse comes with many risks but it's not without big rewards.
skippylongstocking - really. what a name. every 2 dollar bettor could bet this horse. not just because of the name but because the horse will be one of the longshots. and imo the only long shot that can bring hope and riches. there's something to said for being in the right place at the right time. and this race might align for the horse. that wood mem is really getting a lot of mileage from many horses. i'm a little leery about it but again, you only have so many viable options. i have to say i hate looking down on the program and seeing simplification bury this horse in the mmm. but skippy's last 2 races were pretty good when he stretched out to 1-1/8, sure he wasn't as good as md or ev. but his wood race was promising. and much better than when he faced simp in jan. you can say the horse is sitting a big race as well @ 20-1. horse fits the fresh parameter and the distance might help more. he might not be good enough, but you don't get 20-1 on figure horses. there are some things to get behind here. and if ev gets pushed that will only help this horse. not only will this horse juice your exotic tickets i can see a possible win scenario if everything unfolds properly.. maybe this will be saffie's coming out party. bombs away.
Last edited by boys at tosconova; 05-21-2022 at 02:22 AM.
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