2022 Kentucky Derby

[omar2]

Thought about this race for a couple of days now. Changed my opinion 3 times and you know the saying " 3rd times a charm".
I'm posting this specifically for " Chopped Liver " and for Dave S.
My opinion in this year's Derby is this: My 2 key horses are the #13 and #1. My next two horses would be the #3 and #7.
I originally liked the #'s 1 & 19 plus the 7. But once I decided to use the Holy Bull race, he became lights out top horse. Why that race?? Because he's one of the few horses in the race that was able to transfer his " TOTAL PACE SPEED [TPR]" from a sprint to a route. True it was 1 turn but he came back around 2 turns and won the Holy Bull. One of two things happened in his last race. Either the horse got away from the jockey from the start or he wasn't good enough on that day . I think the former. This horse can rate, he may not like to but he can be rated. In prep races trainers do two things, they either try to win because they need the points OR they try because they know a 1-1/4 may be a reach for their horse. Take the money and run! and move on.
As far as the #1 he tries hard in every race and with Irad on him I'm not worried about the rail. He's not a Zenyatta type, he gets position in the race and then makes his move. Besides I won from the rail with Ferdinand in 1986.
The #3 is a good consistent type but he may run too close in a race with some pace and get caught up in the moment.
The #7, what can I say. He won his prep race easily off a lone speed type of horse. The Japanese knows that for him to have a shot he needs to be familiar with the track and he's been working lights out since April 16. This horse should be fly'in down the stretch with the #1 and the difference could be who gets blocked, bumped or not. I think the pace will be honest but not exceptionaly fast.
Yesterday I caught the #12 in race to at CD $22.80, and the exacta in race 10, 10-6-1, $322 but did not play the triple[ .50 $573 ]. The 6 and 1 were my main two horses.
OMAR